Merge pull request 'feat: v2 staged exit에 실제 피처(ATR, pred_down_prob) 공급 (#325)' (#343) from feature/issue-325-staged-exit-real-features into feature/v3-session-policy-stream

Reviewed-on: #343

src/config.py

@@ -61,6 +61,8 @@ class Settings(BaseSettings):
     PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH: float = Field(default=50000.0, ge=0.0)
     USD_BUFFER_MIN: float = Field(default=1000.0, ge=0.0)
     US_MIN_PRICE: float = Field(default=5.0, ge=0.0)
+    STAGED_EXIT_BE_ARM_PCT: float = Field(default=1.2, gt=0.0, le=30.0)
+    STAGED_EXIT_ARM_PCT: float = Field(default=3.0, gt=0.0, le=100.0)
     STOPLOSS_REENTRY_COOLDOWN_MINUTES: int = Field(default=120, ge=1, le=1440)
     KR_ATR_STOP_MULTIPLIER_K: float = Field(default=2.0, ge=0.1, le=10.0)
     KR_ATR_STOP_MIN_PCT: float = Field(default=-2.0, le=0.0)

src/main.py

@@ -71,6 +71,7 @@ _SESSION_CLOSE_WINDOWS = {"NXT_AFTER", "US_AFTER"}
 _RUNTIME_EXIT_STATES: dict[str, PositionState] = {}
 _RUNTIME_EXIT_PEAKS: dict[str, float] = {}
 _STOPLOSS_REENTRY_COOLDOWN_UNTIL: dict[str, float] = {}
+_VOLATILITY_ANALYZER = VolatilityAnalyzer()
 
 
 def safe_float(value: str | float | None, default: float = 0.0) -> float:
@@ -150,6 +151,90 @@ def _stoploss_cooldown_minutes(settings: Settings | None) -> int:
     return max(1, int(getattr(settings, "STOPLOSS_REENTRY_COOLDOWN_MINUTES", 120)))
 
 
+def _estimate_pred_down_prob_from_rsi(rsi: float | str | None) -> float:
+    """Estimate downside probability from RSI using a simple linear mapping."""
+    if rsi is None:
+        return 0.5
+    rsi_value = max(0.0, min(100.0, safe_float(rsi, 50.0)))
+    return rsi_value / 100.0
+
+
+async def _compute_kr_atr_value(
+    *,
+    broker: KISBroker,
+    stock_code: str,
+    period: int = 14,
+) -> float:
+    """Compute ATR(period) for KR stocks using daily OHLC."""
+    days = max(period + 1, 30)
+    try:
+        daily_prices = await _retry_connection(
+            broker.get_daily_prices,
+            stock_code,
+            days=days,
+            label=f"daily_prices:{stock_code}",
+        )
+    except ConnectionError as exc:
+        logger.warning("ATR source unavailable for %s: %s", stock_code, exc)
+        return 0.0
+    except Exception as exc:
+        logger.warning("Unexpected ATR fetch failure for %s: %s", stock_code, exc)
+        return 0.0
+
+    if not isinstance(daily_prices, list):
+        return 0.0
+
+    highs: list[float] = []
+    lows: list[float] = []
+    closes: list[float] = []
+    for row in daily_prices:
+        if not isinstance(row, dict):
+            continue
+        high = safe_float(row.get("high"), 0.0)
+        low = safe_float(row.get("low"), 0.0)
+        close = safe_float(row.get("close"), 0.0)
+        if high <= 0 or low <= 0 or close <= 0:
+            continue
+        highs.append(high)
+        lows.append(low)
+        closes.append(close)
+
+    if len(highs) < period + 1 or len(lows) < period + 1 or len(closes) < period + 1:
+        return 0.0
+    return max(0.0, _VOLATILITY_ANALYZER.calculate_atr(highs, lows, closes, period=period))
+
+
+async def _inject_staged_exit_features(
+    *,
+    market: MarketInfo,
+    stock_code: str,
+    open_position: dict[str, Any] | None,
+    market_data: dict[str, Any],
+    broker: KISBroker | None,
+) -> None:
+    """Inject ATR/pred_down_prob used by staged exit evaluation."""
+    if not open_position:
+        return
+
+    if "pred_down_prob" not in market_data:
+        market_data["pred_down_prob"] = _estimate_pred_down_prob_from_rsi(
+            market_data.get("rsi")
+        )
+
+    existing_atr = safe_float(market_data.get("atr_value"), 0.0)
+    if existing_atr > 0:
+        return
+
+    if market.is_domestic and broker is not None:
+        market_data["atr_value"] = await _compute_kr_atr_value(
+            broker=broker,
+            stock_code=stock_code,
+        )
+        return
+
+    market_data["atr_value"] = 0.0
+
+
 async def _retry_connection(coro_factory: Any, *args: Any, label: str = "", **kwargs: Any) -> Any:
     """Call an async function retrying on ConnectionError with exponential backoff.
 
@@ -563,6 +648,15 @@ def _apply_staged_exit_override_for_hold(
             fallback_stop_loss_pct=stop_loss_threshold,
             settings=settings,
         )
+    if settings is None:
+        be_arm_pct = max(0.5, take_profit_threshold * 0.4)
+        arm_pct = take_profit_threshold
+    else:
+        be_arm_pct = max(0.1, float(getattr(settings, "STAGED_EXIT_BE_ARM_PCT", 1.2)))
+        arm_pct = max(
+            be_arm_pct,
+            float(getattr(settings, "STAGED_EXIT_ARM_PCT", 3.0)),
+        )
 
     runtime_key = _build_runtime_position_key(
         market_code=market.code,
@@ -581,8 +675,8 @@ def _apply_staged_exit_override_for_hold(
         current_state=current_state,
         config=ExitRuleConfig(
             hard_stop_pct=stop_loss_threshold,
-            be_arm_pct=max(0.5, take_profit_threshold * 0.4),
-            arm_pct=take_profit_threshold,
+            be_arm_pct=be_arm_pct,
+            arm_pct=arm_pct,
         ),
         inp=ExitRuleInput(
             current_price=current_price,
@@ -608,7 +702,7 @@ def _apply_staged_exit_override_for_hold(
     elif exit_eval.reason == "arm_take_profit":
         rationale = (
             f"Take-profit triggered ({pnl_pct:.2f}% >= "
-            f"{take_profit_threshold:.2f}%)"
+            f"{arm_pct:.2f}%)"
         )
     elif exit_eval.reason == "atr_trailing_stop":
         rationale = "ATR trailing-stop triggered"
@@ -1398,6 +1492,13 @@ async def trading_cycle(
                 market_code=market.code,
                 stock_code=stock_code,
             )
+        await _inject_staged_exit_features(
+            market=market,
+            stock_code=stock_code,
+            open_position=open_position,
+            market_data=market_data,
+            broker=broker,
+        )
         decision = _apply_staged_exit_override_for_hold(
             decision=decision,
             market=market,
@@ -2606,6 +2707,13 @@ async def run_daily_session(
                         market_code=market.code,
                         stock_code=stock_code,
                     )
+                await _inject_staged_exit_features(
+                    market=market,
+                    stock_code=stock_code,
+                    open_position=daily_open,
+                    market_data=stock_data,
+                    broker=broker,
+                )
                 decision = _apply_staged_exit_override_for_hold(
                     decision=decision,
                     market=market,

tests/test_main.py

@@ -16,6 +16,10 @@ from src.logging.decision_logger import DecisionLogger
 from src.main import (
     KILL_SWITCH,
     _STOPLOSS_REENTRY_COOLDOWN_UNTIL,
+    _apply_staged_exit_override_for_hold,
+    _compute_kr_atr_value,
+    _estimate_pred_down_prob_from_rsi,
+    _inject_staged_exit_features,
     _RUNTIME_EXIT_PEAKS,
     _RUNTIME_EXIT_STATES,
     _should_force_exit_for_overnight,
@@ -181,6 +185,99 @@ def test_compute_kr_dynamic_stop_loss_pct_uses_settings_values() -> None:
     )
     assert out == -3.0
 
+
+def test_estimate_pred_down_prob_from_rsi_uses_linear_mapping() -> None:
+    assert _estimate_pred_down_prob_from_rsi(None) == 0.5
+    assert _estimate_pred_down_prob_from_rsi(0.0) == 0.0
+    assert _estimate_pred_down_prob_from_rsi(50.0) == 0.5
+    assert _estimate_pred_down_prob_from_rsi(100.0) == 1.0
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_compute_kr_atr_value_returns_zero_on_short_series() -> None:
+    broker = MagicMock()
+    broker.get_daily_prices = AsyncMock(
+        return_value=[{"high": 101.0, "low": 99.0, "close": 100.0}] * 10
+    )
+
+    atr = await _compute_kr_atr_value(broker=broker, stock_code="005930")
+    assert atr == 0.0
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_inject_staged_exit_features_sets_pred_down_prob_and_atr_for_kr() -> None:
+    market = MagicMock()
+    market.is_domestic = True
+    stock_data: dict[str, float] = {"rsi": 65.0}
+
+    broker = MagicMock()
+    broker.get_daily_prices = AsyncMock(
+        return_value=[
+            {"high": 102.0 + i, "low": 98.0 + i, "close": 100.0 + i}
+            for i in range(40)
+        ]
+    )
+
+    await _inject_staged_exit_features(
+        market=market,
+        stock_code="005930",
+        open_position={"price": 100.0, "quantity": 1},
+        market_data=stock_data,
+        broker=broker,
+    )
+
+    assert stock_data["pred_down_prob"] == pytest.approx(0.65)
+    assert stock_data["atr_value"] > 0.0
+
+
+def test_apply_staged_exit_uses_independent_arm_threshold_settings() -> None:
+    market = MagicMock()
+    market.code = "KR"
+    market.name = "Korea"
+
+    decision = MagicMock()
+    decision.action = "HOLD"
+    decision.confidence = 70
+    decision.rationale = "hold"
+
+    settings = Settings(
+        KIS_APP_KEY="k",
+        KIS_APP_SECRET="s",
+        KIS_ACCOUNT_NO="12345678-01",
+        GEMINI_API_KEY="g",
+        STAGED_EXIT_BE_ARM_PCT=2.2,
+        STAGED_EXIT_ARM_PCT=5.4,
+    )
+
+    captured: dict[str, float] = {}
+
+    def _fake_eval(**kwargs):  # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
+        cfg = kwargs["config"]
+        captured["be_arm_pct"] = cfg.be_arm_pct
+        captured["arm_pct"] = cfg.arm_pct
+
+        class _Out:
+            should_exit = False
+            reason = "none"
+            state = PositionState.HOLDING
+
+        return _Out()
+
+    with patch("src.main.evaluate_exit", side_effect=_fake_eval):
+        out = _apply_staged_exit_override_for_hold(
+            decision=decision,
+            market=market,
+            stock_code="005930",
+            open_position={"price": 100.0, "quantity": 1, "decision_id": "d1", "timestamp": "t1"},
+            market_data={"current_price": 101.0, "rsi": 60.0, "pred_down_prob": 0.6},
+            stock_playbook=None,
+            settings=settings,
+        )
+
+    assert out is decision
+    assert captured["be_arm_pct"] == pytest.approx(2.2)
+    assert captured["arm_pct"] == pytest.approx(5.4)
+
     def test_returns_zero_when_field_empty_string(self) -> None:
         """Returns 0.0 when pchs_avg_pric is an empty string."""
         balance = {"output1": [{"pdno": "005930", "pchs_avg_pric": ""}]}