strategy: implement model assist be-lock path and clarify audit note
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This commit is contained in:
agentson
2026-03-02 09:31:38 +09:00
parent 2332ba868f
commit 5e4c94bfeb
6 changed files with 27 additions and 8 deletions

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@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
<!-- <!--
Doc-ID: DOC-REQ-001 Doc-ID: DOC-REQ-001
Version: 1.0.9 Version: 1.0.10
Status: active Status: active
Owner: strategy Owner: strategy
Updated: 2026-03-02 Updated: 2026-03-02

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@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ Updated: 2026-03-02
| REQ-V2-001 | 4-상태 매도 상태기계 (HOLDING→BE_LOCK→ARMED→EXITED) | `src/strategy/position_state_machine.py` | ✅ 완료 | | REQ-V2-001 | 4-상태 매도 상태기계 (HOLDING→BE_LOCK→ARMED→EXITED) | `src/strategy/position_state_machine.py` | ✅ 완료 |
| REQ-V2-002 | 즉시 최상위 상태 승격 (갭 대응) | `position_state_machine.py:51-70` | ✅ 완료 | | REQ-V2-002 | 즉시 최상위 상태 승격 (갭 대응) | `position_state_machine.py:51-70` | ✅ 완료 |
| REQ-V2-003 | EXITED 우선 평가 | `position_state_machine.py:38-48` | ✅ 완료 | | REQ-V2-003 | EXITED 우선 평가 | `position_state_machine.py:38-48` | ✅ 완료 |
| REQ-V2-004 | 4중 청산 로직 (Hard/BE/ATR Trailing/Model) | `src/strategy/exit_rules.py` | ✅ 완료 | | REQ-V2-004 | 4중 청산 로직 (Hard/BE/ATR Trailing/Model assist-only, 직접 EXIT 미트리거) | `src/strategy/exit_rules.py` | ✅ 완료 |
| REQ-V2-005 | Triple Barrier 라벨링 | `src/analysis/triple_barrier.py` | ✅ 완료 | | REQ-V2-005 | Triple Barrier 라벨링 | `src/analysis/triple_barrier.py` | ✅ 완료 |
| REQ-V2-006 | Walk-Forward + Purge/Embargo 검증 | `src/analysis/walk_forward_split.py` | ✅ 완료 | | REQ-V2-006 | Walk-Forward + Purge/Embargo 검증 | `src/analysis/walk_forward_split.py` | ✅ 완료 |
| REQ-V2-007 | 비용/슬리피지/체결실패 모델 필수 | `src/analysis/backtest_cost_guard.py`, `src/analysis/backtest_pipeline.py` | ✅ 완료 | | REQ-V2-007 | 비용/슬리피지/체결실패 모델 필수 | `src/analysis/backtest_cost_guard.py`, `src/analysis/backtest_pipeline.py` | ✅ 완료 |

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@@ -85,6 +85,8 @@ def evaluate_exit(
reason = "atr_trailing_stop" reason = "atr_trailing_stop"
elif be_lock_threat: elif be_lock_threat:
reason = "be_lock_threat" reason = "be_lock_threat"
elif model_exit_signal and next_state == PositionState.BE_LOCK:
reason = "model_assist_be_lock"
elif take_profit_hit: elif take_profit_hit:
# Backward-compatible immediate profit-taking path. # Backward-compatible immediate profit-taking path.
reason = "arm_take_profit" reason = "arm_take_profit"

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@@ -62,5 +62,8 @@ def promote_state(current: PositionState, inp: StateTransitionInput) -> Position
target = PositionState.ARMED target = PositionState.ARMED
elif inp.unrealized_pnl_pct >= inp.be_arm_pct: elif inp.unrealized_pnl_pct >= inp.be_arm_pct:
target = PositionState.BE_LOCK target = PositionState.BE_LOCK
elif inp.model_exit_signal:
# Model signal assists risk posture by tightening to BE_LOCK.
target = PositionState.BE_LOCK
return target if _STATE_RANK[target] > _STATE_RANK[current] else current return target if _STATE_RANK[target] > _STATE_RANK[current] else current

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@@ -22,12 +22,12 @@ def test_take_profit_exit_for_backward_compatibility() -> None:
assert out.reason == "arm_take_profit" assert out.reason == "arm_take_profit"
def test_model_assist_signal_does_not_exit_directly() -> None: def test_model_assist_signal_promotes_be_lock_without_direct_exit() -> None:
out = evaluate_exit( out = evaluate_exit(
current_state=PositionState.ARMED, current_state=PositionState.HOLDING,
config=ExitRuleConfig(model_prob_threshold=0.62, arm_pct=10.0), config=ExitRuleConfig(model_prob_threshold=0.62, be_arm_pct=1.2, arm_pct=10.0),
inp=ExitRuleInput( inp=ExitRuleInput(
current_price=101.0, current_price=100.5,
entry_price=100.0, entry_price=100.0,
peak_price=105.0, peak_price=105.0,
pred_down_prob=0.8, pred_down_prob=0.8,
@@ -35,4 +35,5 @@ def test_model_assist_signal_does_not_exit_directly() -> None:
), ),
) )
assert out.should_exit is False assert out.should_exit is False
assert out.reason == "hold" assert out.state == PositionState.BE_LOCK
assert out.reason == "model_assist_be_lock"

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@@ -30,7 +30,20 @@ def test_exited_has_priority_over_promotion() -> None:
assert state == PositionState.EXITED assert state == PositionState.EXITED
def test_model_signal_is_assist_only_not_direct_exit() -> None: def test_model_signal_promotes_be_lock_as_assist() -> None:
state = promote_state(
PositionState.HOLDING,
StateTransitionInput(
unrealized_pnl_pct=0.5,
be_arm_pct=1.2,
arm_pct=2.8,
model_exit_signal=True,
),
)
assert state == PositionState.BE_LOCK
def test_model_signal_does_not_force_exit_directly() -> None:
state = promote_state( state = promote_state(
PositionState.ARMED, PositionState.ARMED,
StateTransitionInput( StateTransitionInput(