diff --git a/src/strategy/scenario_engine.py b/src/strategy/scenario_engine.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..bf84740
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/strategy/scenario_engine.py
@@ -0,0 +1,236 @@
+"""Local scenario engine for playbook execution.
+
+Matches real-time market conditions against pre-defined scenarios
+without any API calls. Designed for sub-100ms execution.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import logging
+from dataclasses import dataclass, field
+from typing import Any
+
+from src.strategy.models import (
+    DayPlaybook,
+    GlobalRule,
+    ScenarioAction,
+    StockCondition,
+    StockScenario,
+)
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+
+@dataclass
+class ScenarioMatch:
+    """Result of matching market conditions against scenarios."""
+
+    stock_code: str
+    matched_scenario: StockScenario | None
+    action: ScenarioAction
+    confidence: int
+    rationale: str
+    global_rule_triggered: GlobalRule | None = None
+    match_details: dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
+
+
+class ScenarioEngine:
+    """Evaluates playbook scenarios against real-time market data.
+
+    No API calls — pure Python condition matching.
+    """
+
+    def evaluate(
+        self,
+        playbook: DayPlaybook,
+        stock_code: str,
+        market_data: dict[str, Any],
+        portfolio_data: dict[str, Any],
+    ) -> ScenarioMatch:
+        """Match market conditions to scenarios and return a decision.
+
+        Algorithm:
+        1. Check global rules first (portfolio-level circuit breakers)
+        2. Find the StockPlaybook for the given stock_code
+        3. Iterate scenarios in order (first match wins)
+        4. If no match, return playbook.default_action (HOLD)
+
+        Args:
+            playbook: Today's DayPlaybook for this market
+            stock_code: Stock ticker to evaluate
+            market_data: Real-time market data (price, rsi, volume_ratio, etc.)
+            portfolio_data: Portfolio state (pnl_pct, total_cash, etc.)
+
+        Returns:
+            ScenarioMatch with the decision
+        """
+        # 1. Check global rules
+        triggered_rule = self.check_global_rules(playbook, portfolio_data)
+        if triggered_rule is not None:
+            logger.info(
+                "Global rule triggered for %s: %s -> %s",
+                stock_code,
+                triggered_rule.condition,
+                triggered_rule.action.value,
+            )
+            return ScenarioMatch(
+                stock_code=stock_code,
+                matched_scenario=None,
+                action=triggered_rule.action,
+                confidence=100,
+                rationale=f"Global rule: {triggered_rule.rationale or triggered_rule.condition}",
+                global_rule_triggered=triggered_rule,
+            )
+
+        # 2. Find stock playbook
+        stock_pb = playbook.get_stock_playbook(stock_code)
+        if stock_pb is None:
+            logger.debug("No playbook for %s — defaulting to %s", stock_code, playbook.default_action)
+            return ScenarioMatch(
+                stock_code=stock_code,
+                matched_scenario=None,
+                action=playbook.default_action,
+                confidence=0,
+                rationale=f"No scenarios defined for {stock_code}",
+            )
+
+        # 3. Iterate scenarios (first match wins)
+        for scenario in stock_pb.scenarios:
+            if self.evaluate_condition(scenario.condition, market_data):
+                logger.info(
+                    "Scenario matched for %s: %s (confidence=%d)",
+                    stock_code,
+                    scenario.action.value,
+                    scenario.confidence,
+                )
+                return ScenarioMatch(
+                    stock_code=stock_code,
+                    matched_scenario=scenario,
+                    action=scenario.action,
+                    confidence=scenario.confidence,
+                    rationale=scenario.rationale,
+                    match_details=self._build_match_details(scenario.condition, market_data),
+                )
+
+        # 4. No match — default action
+        logger.debug("No scenario matched for %s — defaulting to %s", stock_code, playbook.default_action)
+        return ScenarioMatch(
+            stock_code=stock_code,
+            matched_scenario=None,
+            action=playbook.default_action,
+            confidence=0,
+            rationale="No scenario conditions met — holding position",
+        )
+
+    def check_global_rules(
+        self,
+        playbook: DayPlaybook,
+        portfolio_data: dict[str, Any],
+    ) -> GlobalRule | None:
+        """Check portfolio-level rules. Returns first triggered rule or None."""
+        for rule in playbook.global_rules:
+            if self._evaluate_global_condition(rule.condition, portfolio_data):
+                return rule
+        return None
+
+    def evaluate_condition(
+        self,
+        condition: StockCondition,
+        market_data: dict[str, Any],
+    ) -> bool:
+        """Evaluate all non-None fields in condition as AND.
+
+        Returns True only if ALL specified conditions are met.
+        Empty condition (no fields set) returns False for safety.
+        """
+        if not condition.has_any_condition():
+            return False
+
+        checks: list[bool] = []
+
+        rsi = market_data.get("rsi")
+        if condition.rsi_below is not None:
+            checks.append(rsi is not None and rsi < condition.rsi_below)
+        if condition.rsi_above is not None:
+            checks.append(rsi is not None and rsi > condition.rsi_above)
+
+        volume_ratio = market_data.get("volume_ratio")
+        if condition.volume_ratio_above is not None:
+            checks.append(volume_ratio is not None and volume_ratio > condition.volume_ratio_above)
+        if condition.volume_ratio_below is not None:
+            checks.append(volume_ratio is not None and volume_ratio < condition.volume_ratio_below)
+
+        price = market_data.get("current_price")
+        if condition.price_above is not None:
+            checks.append(price is not None and price > condition.price_above)
+        if condition.price_below is not None:
+            checks.append(price is not None and price < condition.price_below)
+
+        price_change_pct = market_data.get("price_change_pct")
+        if condition.price_change_pct_above is not None:
+            checks.append(price_change_pct is not None and price_change_pct > condition.price_change_pct_above)
+        if condition.price_change_pct_below is not None:
+            checks.append(price_change_pct is not None and price_change_pct < condition.price_change_pct_below)
+
+        return len(checks) > 0 and all(checks)
+
+    def _evaluate_global_condition(
+        self,
+        condition_str: str,
+        portfolio_data: dict[str, Any],
+    ) -> bool:
+        """Evaluate a simple global condition string against portfolio data.
+
+        Supports: "field < value", "field > value", "field <= value", "field >= value"
+        """
+        parts = condition_str.strip().split()
+        if len(parts) != 3:
+            logger.warning("Invalid global condition format: %s", condition_str)
+            return False
+
+        field_name, operator, value_str = parts
+        try:
+            threshold = float(value_str)
+        except ValueError:
+            logger.warning("Invalid threshold in condition: %s", condition_str)
+            return False
+
+        actual = portfolio_data.get(field_name)
+        if actual is None:
+            return False
+
+        try:
+            actual_val = float(actual)
+        except (ValueError, TypeError):
+            return False
+
+        if operator == "<":
+            return actual_val < threshold
+        elif operator == ">":
+            return actual_val > threshold
+        elif operator == "<=":
+            return actual_val <= threshold
+        elif operator == ">=":
+            return actual_val >= threshold
+        else:
+            logger.warning("Unknown operator in condition: %s", operator)
+            return False
+
+    def _build_match_details(
+        self,
+        condition: StockCondition,
+        market_data: dict[str, Any],
+    ) -> dict[str, Any]:
+        """Build a summary of which conditions matched and their values."""
+        details: dict[str, Any] = {}
+
+        if condition.rsi_below is not None or condition.rsi_above is not None:
+            details["rsi"] = market_data.get("rsi")
+        if condition.volume_ratio_above is not None or condition.volume_ratio_below is not None:
+            details["volume_ratio"] = market_data.get("volume_ratio")
+        if condition.price_above is not None or condition.price_below is not None:
+            details["current_price"] = market_data.get("current_price")
+        if condition.price_change_pct_above is not None or condition.price_change_pct_below is not None:
+            details["price_change_pct"] = market_data.get("price_change_pct")
+
+        return details
diff --git a/tests/test_scenario_engine.py b/tests/test_scenario_engine.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..e440fa0
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/test_scenario_engine.py
@@ -0,0 +1,385 @@
+"""Tests for the local scenario engine."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from datetime import date
+
+import pytest
+
+from src.strategy.models import (
+    DayPlaybook,
+    GlobalRule,
+    ScenarioAction,
+    StockCondition,
+    StockPlaybook,
+    StockScenario,
+)
+from src.strategy.scenario_engine import ScenarioEngine, ScenarioMatch
+
+
+@pytest.fixture
+def engine() -> ScenarioEngine:
+    return ScenarioEngine()
+
+
+def _scenario(
+    rsi_below: float | None = None,
+    rsi_above: float | None = None,
+    volume_ratio_above: float | None = None,
+    action: ScenarioAction = ScenarioAction.BUY,
+    confidence: int = 85,
+    **kwargs,
+) -> StockScenario:
+    return StockScenario(
+        condition=StockCondition(
+            rsi_below=rsi_below,
+            rsi_above=rsi_above,
+            volume_ratio_above=volume_ratio_above,
+            **kwargs,
+        ),
+        action=action,
+        confidence=confidence,
+        rationale=f"Test scenario: {action.value}",
+    )
+
+
+def _playbook(
+    stock_code: str = "005930",
+    scenarios: list[StockScenario] | None = None,
+    global_rules: list[GlobalRule] | None = None,
+    default_action: ScenarioAction = ScenarioAction.HOLD,
+) -> DayPlaybook:
+    if scenarios is None:
+        scenarios = [_scenario(rsi_below=30.0)]
+    return DayPlaybook(
+        date=date(2026, 2, 7),
+        market="KR",
+        stock_playbooks=[StockPlaybook(stock_code=stock_code, scenarios=scenarios)],
+        global_rules=global_rules or [],
+        default_action=default_action,
+    )
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# evaluate_condition
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+class TestEvaluateCondition:
+    def test_rsi_below_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_below=30.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 25.0})
+
+    def test_rsi_below_no_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_below=30.0)
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 35.0})
+
+    def test_rsi_above_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_above=70.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 75.0})
+
+    def test_rsi_above_no_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_above=70.0)
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 65.0})
+
+    def test_volume_ratio_above_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(volume_ratio_above=3.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"volume_ratio": 4.5})
+
+    def test_volume_ratio_below_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(volume_ratio_below=1.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"volume_ratio": 0.5})
+
+    def test_price_above_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(price_above=50000)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"current_price": 55000})
+
+    def test_price_below_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(price_below=50000)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"current_price": 45000})
+
+    def test_price_change_pct_above_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(price_change_pct_above=2.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"price_change_pct": 3.5})
+
+    def test_price_change_pct_below_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(price_change_pct_below=-3.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"price_change_pct": -4.0})
+
+    def test_multiple_conditions_and_logic(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_below=30.0, volume_ratio_above=3.0)
+        # Both met
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 25.0, "volume_ratio": 4.0})
+        # Only RSI met
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 25.0, "volume_ratio": 2.0})
+        # Only volume met
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 35.0, "volume_ratio": 4.0})
+        # Neither met
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 35.0, "volume_ratio": 2.0})
+
+    def test_empty_condition_returns_false(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition()
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 25.0})
+
+    def test_missing_data_returns_false(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_below=30.0)
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {})
+
+    def test_none_data_returns_false(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_below=30.0)
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": None})
+
+    def test_boundary_value_not_matched(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        """rsi_below=30 should NOT match rsi=30 (strict less than)."""
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_below=30.0)
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 30.0})
+
+    def test_boundary_value_above_not_matched(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        """rsi_above=70 should NOT match rsi=70 (strict greater than)."""
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_above=70.0)
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 70.0})
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# check_global_rules
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+class TestCheckGlobalRules:
+    def test_no_rules(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(global_rules=[])
+        result = engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"portfolio_pnl_pct": -1.0})
+        assert result is None
+
+    def test_rule_triggered(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(
+                    condition="portfolio_pnl_pct < -2.0",
+                    action=ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL,
+                    rationale="Near circuit breaker",
+                ),
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"portfolio_pnl_pct": -2.5})
+        assert result is not None
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL
+
+    def test_rule_not_triggered(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(
+                    condition="portfolio_pnl_pct < -2.0",
+                    action=ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL,
+                ),
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"portfolio_pnl_pct": -1.0})
+        assert result is None
+
+    def test_first_rule_wins(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(condition="portfolio_pnl_pct < -2.0", action=ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL),
+                GlobalRule(condition="portfolio_pnl_pct < -1.0", action=ScenarioAction.HOLD),
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"portfolio_pnl_pct": -2.5})
+        assert result is not None
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL
+
+    def test_greater_than_operator(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(condition="volatility_index > 30", action=ScenarioAction.HOLD),
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"volatility_index": 35})
+        assert result is not None
+
+    def test_missing_field_not_triggered(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(condition="unknown_field < -2.0", action=ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL),
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"portfolio_pnl_pct": -5.0})
+        assert result is None
+
+    def test_invalid_condition_format(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(condition="bad format", action=ScenarioAction.HOLD),
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.check_global_rules(pb, {})
+        assert result is None
+
+    def test_le_operator(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(condition="portfolio_pnl_pct <= -2.0", action=ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL),
+            ]
+        )
+        assert engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"portfolio_pnl_pct": -2.0}) is not None
+        assert engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"portfolio_pnl_pct": -1.9}) is None
+
+    def test_ge_operator(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(condition="volatility >= 80.0", action=ScenarioAction.HOLD),
+            ]
+        )
+        assert engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"volatility": 80.0}) is not None
+        assert engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"volatility": 79.9}) is None
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# evaluate (full pipeline)
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+class TestEvaluate:
+    def test_scenario_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(scenarios=[_scenario(rsi_below=30.0)])
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "005930", {"rsi": 25.0}, {})
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.BUY
+        assert result.confidence == 85
+        assert result.matched_scenario is not None
+
+    def test_no_scenario_match_returns_default(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(scenarios=[_scenario(rsi_below=30.0)])
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "005930", {"rsi": 50.0}, {})
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.HOLD
+        assert result.confidence == 0
+        assert result.matched_scenario is None
+
+    def test_stock_not_in_playbook(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(stock_code="005930")
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "AAPL", {"rsi": 25.0}, {})
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.HOLD
+        assert result.confidence == 0
+
+    def test_global_rule_takes_priority(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            scenarios=[_scenario(rsi_below=30.0)],
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(
+                    condition="portfolio_pnl_pct < -2.0",
+                    action=ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL,
+                    rationale="Loss limit",
+                ),
+            ],
+        )
+        result = engine.evaluate(
+            pb,
+            "005930",
+            {"rsi": 25.0},  # Would match scenario
+            {"portfolio_pnl_pct": -2.5},  # But global rule triggers first
+        )
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL
+        assert result.global_rule_triggered is not None
+        assert result.matched_scenario is None
+
+    def test_first_scenario_wins(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            scenarios=[
+                _scenario(rsi_below=30.0, action=ScenarioAction.BUY, confidence=90),
+                _scenario(rsi_below=25.0, action=ScenarioAction.BUY, confidence=95),
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "005930", {"rsi": 20.0}, {})
+        # Both match, but first wins
+        assert result.confidence == 90
+
+    def test_sell_scenario(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            scenarios=[
+                _scenario(rsi_above=75.0, action=ScenarioAction.SELL, confidence=80),
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "005930", {"rsi": 80.0}, {})
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.SELL
+
+    def test_empty_playbook(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = DayPlaybook(date=date(2026, 2, 7), market="KR", stock_playbooks=[])
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "005930", {"rsi": 25.0}, {})
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.HOLD
+
+    def test_match_details_populated(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(scenarios=[_scenario(rsi_below=30.0, volume_ratio_above=2.0)])
+        result = engine.evaluate(
+            pb, "005930", {"rsi": 25.0, "volume_ratio": 3.0}, {}
+        )
+        assert result.match_details.get("rsi") == 25.0
+        assert result.match_details.get("volume_ratio") == 3.0
+
+    def test_custom_default_action(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            scenarios=[_scenario(rsi_below=10.0)],  # Very unlikely to match
+            default_action=ScenarioAction.SELL,
+        )
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "005930", {"rsi": 50.0}, {})
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.SELL
+
+    def test_multiple_stocks_in_playbook(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = DayPlaybook(
+            date=date(2026, 2, 7),
+            market="US",
+            stock_playbooks=[
+                StockPlaybook(
+                    stock_code="AAPL",
+                    scenarios=[_scenario(rsi_below=25.0, confidence=90)],
+                ),
+                StockPlaybook(
+                    stock_code="MSFT",
+                    scenarios=[_scenario(rsi_above=75.0, action=ScenarioAction.SELL, confidence=80)],
+                ),
+            ],
+        )
+        aapl = engine.evaluate(pb, "AAPL", {"rsi": 20.0}, {})
+        assert aapl.action == ScenarioAction.BUY
+        assert aapl.confidence == 90
+
+        msft = engine.evaluate(pb, "MSFT", {"rsi": 80.0}, {})
+        assert msft.action == ScenarioAction.SELL
+
+    def test_complex_multi_condition(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            scenarios=[
+                _scenario(
+                    rsi_below=30.0,
+                    volume_ratio_above=3.0,
+                    price_change_pct_below=-2.0,
+                    confidence=95,
+                ),
+            ]
+        )
+        # All conditions met
+        result = engine.evaluate(
+            pb,
+            "005930",
+            {"rsi": 22.0, "volume_ratio": 4.0, "price_change_pct": -3.0},
+            {},
+        )
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.BUY
+        assert result.confidence == 95
+
+        # One condition not met
+        result2 = engine.evaluate(
+            pb,
+            "005930",
+            {"rsi": 22.0, "volume_ratio": 4.0, "price_change_pct": -1.0},
+            {},
+        )
+        assert result2.action == ScenarioAction.HOLD
+
+    def test_scenario_match_returns_rationale(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(scenarios=[_scenario(rsi_below=30.0)])
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "005930", {"rsi": 25.0}, {})
+        assert result.rationale != ""
+
+    def test_result_stock_code(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook()
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "005930", {"rsi": 25.0}, {})
+        assert result.stock_code == "005930"