fix: SELL 주문에서 Fat Finger 오탐 수정 — 손절/익절 차단 버그 (#187)

SELL 주문은 현금을 소비하지 않고 받는 것이므로 Fat Finger 체크 대상이
아님. 포지션 가치가 잔여 현금의 30%를 초과해도 SELL은 정상 실행돼야 함.

- realtime/daily 사이클 두 곳 모두 수정
- SELL: check_circuit_breaker만 호출 (Fat Finger 스킵)
- BUY: 기존대로 validate_order 호출 (Fat Finger + Circuit Breaker)
- 테스트 2개 추가: SELL Fat Finger 스킵, SELL 서킷브레이커 적용 확인

재현 사례 (2026-02-21):
  JELD stop-loss -6.20% → FAT FINGER: 49,548 is 99.1% of cash 50,000
  RXT take-profit +46.13% → FAT FINGER: 88,676 is 177.4% of cash 50,000

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/analysis/smart_scanner.py

@@ -175,7 +175,7 @@ class SmartVolatilityScanner:
                 liquidity_score = volume_rank_bonus.get(stock_code, 0.0)
                 score = min(100.0, volatility_score + liquidity_score)
                 signal = "momentum" if change_rate >= 0 else "oversold"
-                implied_rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (change_rate * 4.0)))
+                implied_rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (change_rate * 2.0)))
 
                 candidates.append(
                     ScanCandidate(
@@ -282,7 +282,7 @@ class SmartVolatilityScanner:
             liquidity_score = volume_rank_bonus.get(stock_code, 0.0)
             score = min(100.0, volatility_score + liquidity_score)
             signal = "momentum" if change_rate >= 0 else "oversold"
-            implied_rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (change_rate * 4.0)))
+            implied_rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (change_rate * 2.0)))
             candidates.append(
                 ScanCandidate(
                     stock_code=stock_code,
@@ -338,7 +338,7 @@ class SmartVolatilityScanner:
 
                 score = min(volatility_pct / 10.0, 1.0) * 100.0
                 signal = "momentum" if change_rate >= 0 else "oversold"
-                implied_rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (change_rate * 4.0)))
+                implied_rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (change_rate * 2.0)))
                 candidates.append(
                     ScanCandidate(
                         stock_code=stock_code,

src/config.py

@@ -93,6 +93,16 @@ class Settings(BaseSettings):
     TELEGRAM_COMMANDS_ENABLED: bool = True
     TELEGRAM_POLLING_INTERVAL: float = 1.0  # seconds
 
+    # Telegram notification type filters (granular control)
+    # circuit_breaker is always sent regardless — safety-critical
+    TELEGRAM_NOTIFY_TRADES: bool = True           # BUY/SELL execution alerts
+    TELEGRAM_NOTIFY_MARKET_OPEN_CLOSE: bool = True  # Market open/close alerts
+    TELEGRAM_NOTIFY_FAT_FINGER: bool = True       # Fat-finger rejection alerts
+    TELEGRAM_NOTIFY_SYSTEM_EVENTS: bool = True    # System start/shutdown alerts
+    TELEGRAM_NOTIFY_PLAYBOOK: bool = True         # Playbook generated/failed alerts
+    TELEGRAM_NOTIFY_SCENARIO_MATCH: bool = True   # Scenario matched alerts (most frequent)
+    TELEGRAM_NOTIFY_ERRORS: bool = True           # Error alerts
+
     # Overseas ranking API (KIS endpoint/TR_ID may vary by account/product)
     # Override these from .env if your account uses different specs.
     OVERSEAS_RANKING_ENABLED: bool = True

src/dashboard/app.py

@@ -259,6 +259,50 @@ def create_dashboard_app(db_path: str) -> FastAPI:
                 )
             return {"market": market, "count": len(decisions), "decisions": decisions}
 
+    @app.get("/api/pnl/history")
+    def get_pnl_history(
+        days: int = Query(default=30, ge=1, le=365),
+        market: str = Query("all"),
+    ) -> dict[str, Any]:
+        """Return daily P&L history for charting."""
+        with _connect(db_path) as conn:
+            if market == "all":
+                rows = conn.execute(
+                    """
+                    SELECT DATE(timestamp) AS date,
+                           SUM(pnl) AS daily_pnl,
+                           COUNT(*) AS trade_count
+                    FROM trades
+                    WHERE pnl IS NOT NULL
+                      AND DATE(timestamp) >= DATE('now', ?)
+                    GROUP BY DATE(timestamp)
+                    ORDER BY DATE(timestamp)
+                    """,
+                    (f"-{days} days",),
+                ).fetchall()
+            else:
+                rows = conn.execute(
+                    """
+                    SELECT DATE(timestamp) AS date,
+                           SUM(pnl) AS daily_pnl,
+                           COUNT(*) AS trade_count
+                    FROM trades
+                    WHERE pnl IS NOT NULL
+                      AND market = ?
+                      AND DATE(timestamp) >= DATE('now', ?)
+                    GROUP BY DATE(timestamp)
+                    ORDER BY DATE(timestamp)
+                    """,
+                    (market, f"-{days} days"),
+                ).fetchall()
+            return {
+                "days": days,
+                "market": market,
+                "labels": [row["date"] for row in rows],
+                "pnl": [round(float(row["daily_pnl"]), 2) for row in rows],
+                "trades": [int(row["trade_count"]) for row in rows],
+            }
+
     @app.get("/api/scenarios/active")
     def get_active_scenarios(
         market: str = Query("US"),

src/dashboard/static/index.html

@@ -1,9 +1,10 @@
 <!doctype html>
-<html lang="en">
+<html lang="ko">
   <head>
     <meta charset="UTF-8" />
     <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" />
     <title>The Ouroboros Dashboard</title>
+    <script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/chart.js@4.4.0/dist/chart.umd.min.js"></script>
     <style>
       :root {
         --bg: #0b1724;
@@ -11,51 +12,390 @@
         --fg: #e6eef7;
         --muted: #9fb3c8;
         --accent: #3cb371;
+        --red: #e05555;
+        --border: #28455f;
       }
+      * { box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0; padding: 0; }
       body {
-        margin: 0;
         font-family: ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, Menlo, monospace;
         background: radial-gradient(circle at top left, #173b58, var(--bg));
         color: var(--fg);
+        min-height: 100vh;
+        font-size: 13px;
       }
-      .wrap {
+      .wrap { max-width: 1100px; margin: 0 auto; padding: 20px 16px; }
-        max-width: 900px;
+
-        margin: 48px auto;
+      /* Header */
-        padding: 0 16px;
+      header {
+        display: flex;
+        align-items: center;
+        justify-content: space-between;
+        margin-bottom: 20px;
+        padding-bottom: 12px;
+        border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border);
       }
+      header h1 { font-size: 18px; color: var(--accent); letter-spacing: 0.5px; }
+      .header-right { display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 12px; color: var(--muted); font-size: 12px; }
+      .refresh-btn {
+        background: none; border: 1px solid var(--border); color: var(--muted);
+        padding: 4px 10px; border-radius: 6px; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit;
+        font-size: 12px; transition: border-color 0.2s;
+      }
+      .refresh-btn:hover { border-color: var(--accent); color: var(--accent); }
+
+      /* Summary cards */
+      .cards { display: grid; grid-template-columns: repeat(4, 1fr); gap: 12px; margin-bottom: 20px; }
+      @media (max-width: 700px) { .cards { grid-template-columns: repeat(2, 1fr); } }
       .card {
-        background: color-mix(in oklab, var(--panel), black 12%);
+        background: var(--panel);
-        border: 1px solid #28455f;
+        border: 1px solid var(--border);
-        border-radius: 12px;
+        border-radius: 10px;
-        padding: 20px;
+        padding: 16px;
       }
-      h1 {
+      .card-label { color: var(--muted); font-size: 11px; margin-bottom: 6px; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.5px; }
-        margin-top: 0;
+      .card-value { font-size: 22px; font-weight: 700; }
+      .card-sub { color: var(--muted); font-size: 11px; margin-top: 4px; }
+      .positive { color: var(--accent); }
+      .negative { color: var(--red); }
+      .neutral { color: var(--fg); }
+
+      /* Chart panel */
+      .chart-panel {
+        background: var(--panel);
+        border: 1px solid var(--border);
+        border-radius: 10px;
+        padding: 16px;
+        margin-bottom: 20px;
       }
-      code {
+      .panel-header {
-        color: var(--accent);
+        display: flex;
+        align-items: center;
+        justify-content: space-between;
+        margin-bottom: 16px;
       }
-      li {
+      .panel-title { font-size: 13px; color: var(--muted); font-weight: 600; }
-        margin: 6px 0;
+      .chart-container { position: relative; height: 180px; }
-        color: var(--muted);
+      .chart-error { color: var(--muted); text-align: center; padding: 40px 0; font-size: 12px; }
+
+      /* Days selector */
+      .days-selector { display: flex; gap: 4px; }
+      .day-btn {
+        background: none; border: 1px solid var(--border); color: var(--muted);
+        padding: 3px 8px; border-radius: 4px; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-size: 11px;
       }
+      .day-btn.active { border-color: var(--accent); color: var(--accent); background: rgba(60, 179, 113, 0.08); }
+
+      /* Decisions panel */
+      .decisions-panel {
+        background: var(--panel);
+        border: 1px solid var(--border);
+        border-radius: 10px;
+        padding: 16px;
+      }
+      .market-tabs { display: flex; gap: 6px; flex-wrap: wrap; }
+      .tab-btn {
+        background: none; border: 1px solid var(--border); color: var(--muted);
+        padding: 4px 10px; border-radius: 6px; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-size: 11px;
+      }
+      .tab-btn.active { border-color: var(--accent); color: var(--accent); background: rgba(60, 179, 113, 0.08); }
+      .decisions-table { width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse; margin-top: 14px; }
+      .decisions-table th {
+        text-align: left; color: var(--muted); font-size: 11px; font-weight: 600;
+        padding: 6px 8px; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border); white-space: nowrap;
+      }
+      .decisions-table td {
+        padding: 8px 8px; border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(40, 69, 95, 0.5);
+        vertical-align: middle; white-space: nowrap;
+      }
+      .decisions-table tr:last-child td { border-bottom: none; }
+      .decisions-table tr:hover td { background: rgba(255,255,255,0.02); }
+      .badge {
+        display: inline-block; padding: 2px 7px; border-radius: 4px;
+        font-size: 11px; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: 0.5px;
+      }
+      .badge-buy { background: rgba(60, 179, 113, 0.15); color: var(--accent); }
+      .badge-sell { background: rgba(224, 85, 85, 0.15); color: var(--red); }
+      .badge-hold { background: rgba(159, 179, 200, 0.12); color: var(--muted); }
+      .conf-bar-wrap { display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 6px; min-width: 90px; }
+      .conf-bar { flex: 1; height: 6px; background: rgba(255,255,255,0.08); border-radius: 3px; overflow: hidden; }
+      .conf-fill { height: 100%; border-radius: 3px; background: var(--accent); transition: width 0.3s; }
+      .conf-val { color: var(--muted); font-size: 11px; min-width: 26px; text-align: right; }
+      .rationale-cell { max-width: 200px; overflow: hidden; text-overflow: ellipsis; color: var(--muted); }
+      .empty-row td { text-align: center; color: var(--muted); padding: 24px; }
+
+      /* Spinner */
+      .spinner { display: inline-block; width: 12px; height: 12px; border: 2px solid var(--border); border-top-color: var(--accent); border-radius: 50%; animation: spin 0.8s linear infinite; }
+      @keyframes spin { to { transform: rotate(360deg); } }
     </style>
   </head>
   <body>
     <div class="wrap">
+      <!-- Header -->
+      <header>
+        <h1>&#x1F40D; The Ouroboros</h1>
+        <div class="header-right">
+          <span id="last-updated">--</span>
+          <button class="refresh-btn" onclick="refreshAll()">&#x21BA; 새로고침</button>
+        </div>
+      </header>
+
+      <!-- Summary cards -->
+      <div class="cards">
         <div class="card">
-        <h1>The Ouroboros Dashboard API</h1>
+          <div class="card-label">오늘 거래</div>
-        <p>Use the following endpoints:</p>
+          <div class="card-value neutral" id="card-trades">--</div>
-        <ul>
+          <div class="card-sub" id="card-trades-sub">거래 건수</div>
-          <li><code>/api/status</code></li>
+        </div>
-          <li><code>/api/playbook/{date}?market=KR</code></li>
+        <div class="card">
-          <li><code>/api/scorecard/{date}?market=KR</code></li>
+          <div class="card-label">오늘 P&amp;L</div>
-          <li><code>/api/performance?market=all</code></li>
+          <div class="card-value" id="card-pnl">--</div>
-          <li><code>/api/context/{layer}</code></li>
+          <div class="card-sub" id="card-pnl-sub">실현 손익</div>
-          <li><code>/api/decisions?market=KR</code></li>
+        </div>
-          <li><code>/api/scenarios/active?market=US</code></li>
+        <div class="card">
-        </ul>
+          <div class="card-label">승률</div>
+          <div class="card-value neutral" id="card-winrate">--</div>
+          <div class="card-sub">전체 누적</div>
+        </div>
+        <div class="card">
+          <div class="card-label">누적 거래</div>
+          <div class="card-value neutral" id="card-total">--</div>
+          <div class="card-sub">전체 기간</div>
         </div>
       </div>
+
+      <!-- P&L Chart -->
+      <div class="chart-panel">
+        <div class="panel-header">
+          <span class="panel-title">P&amp;L 추이</span>
+          <div class="days-selector">
+            <button class="day-btn active" data-days="7" onclick="selectDays(this)">7일</button>
+            <button class="day-btn" data-days="30" onclick="selectDays(this)">30일</button>
+            <button class="day-btn" data-days="90" onclick="selectDays(this)">90일</button>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+        <div class="chart-container">
+          <canvas id="pnl-chart"></canvas>
+          <div class="chart-error" id="chart-error" style="display:none">데이터 없음</div>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+
+      <!-- Decisions log -->
+      <div class="decisions-panel">
+        <div class="panel-header">
+          <span class="panel-title">최근 결정 로그</span>
+          <div class="market-tabs" id="market-tabs">
+            <button class="tab-btn active" data-market="KR" onclick="selectMarket(this)">KR</button>
+            <button class="tab-btn" data-market="US_NASDAQ" onclick="selectMarket(this)">US_NASDAQ</button>
+            <button class="tab-btn" data-market="US_NYSE" onclick="selectMarket(this)">US_NYSE</button>
+            <button class="tab-btn" data-market="JP" onclick="selectMarket(this)">JP</button>
+            <button class="tab-btn" data-market="HK" onclick="selectMarket(this)">HK</button>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+        <table class="decisions-table">
+          <thead>
+            <tr>
+              <th>시각</th>
+              <th>종목</th>
+              <th>액션</th>
+              <th>신뢰도</th>
+              <th>사유</th>
+            </tr>
+          </thead>
+          <tbody id="decisions-body">
+            <tr class="empty-row"><td colspan="5"><span class="spinner"></span></td></tr>
+          </tbody>
+        </table>
+      </div>
+    </div>
+
+    <script>
+      let pnlChart = null;
+      let currentDays = 7;
+      let currentMarket = 'KR';
+
+      function fmt(dt) {
+        try {
+          const d = new Date(dt);
+          return d.toLocaleTimeString('ko-KR', { hour: '2-digit', minute: '2-digit', hour12: false });
+        } catch { return dt || '--'; }
+      }
+
+      function fmtPnl(v) {
+        if (v === null || v === undefined) return '--';
+        const n = parseFloat(v);
+        const cls = n > 0 ? 'positive' : n < 0 ? 'negative' : 'neutral';
+        const sign = n > 0 ? '+' : '';
+        return `<span class="${cls}">${sign}${n.toFixed(2)}</span>`;
+      }
+
+      function badge(action) {
+        const a = (action || '').toUpperCase();
+        const cls = a === 'BUY' ? 'badge-buy' : a === 'SELL' ? 'badge-sell' : 'badge-hold';
+        return `<span class="badge ${cls}">${a}</span>`;
+      }
+
+      function confBar(conf) {
+        const pct = Math.min(Math.max(conf || 0, 0), 100);
+        return `<div class="conf-bar-wrap">
+          <div class="conf-bar"><div class="conf-fill" style="width:${pct}%"></div></div>
+          <span class="conf-val">${pct}</span>
+        </div>`;
+      }
+
+      async function fetchStatus() {
+        try {
+          const r = await fetch('/api/status');
+          if (!r.ok) return;
+          const d = await r.json();
+          const t = d.totals || {};
+          document.getElementById('card-trades').textContent = t.trade_count ?? '--';
+          const pnlEl = document.getElementById('card-pnl');
+          const pnlV = t.total_pnl;
+          if (pnlV !== undefined) {
+            const n = parseFloat(pnlV);
+            const sign = n > 0 ? '+' : '';
+            pnlEl.textContent = `${sign}${n.toFixed(2)}`;
+            pnlEl.className = `card-value ${n > 0 ? 'positive' : n < 0 ? 'negative' : 'neutral'}`;
+          }
+          document.getElementById('card-pnl-sub').textContent = `결정 ${t.decision_count ?? 0}건`;
+        } catch {}
+      }
+
+      async function fetchPerformance() {
+        try {
+          const r = await fetch('/api/performance?market=all');
+          if (!r.ok) return;
+          const d = await r.json();
+          const c = d.combined || {};
+          document.getElementById('card-winrate').textContent = c.win_rate !== undefined ? `${c.win_rate}%` : '--';
+          document.getElementById('card-total').textContent = c.total_trades ?? '--';
+        } catch {}
+      }
+
+      async function fetchPnlHistory(days) {
+        try {
+          const r = await fetch(`/api/pnl/history?days=${days}`);
+          if (!r.ok) throw new Error('fetch failed');
+          const d = await r.json();
+          renderChart(d);
+        } catch {
+          document.getElementById('chart-error').style.display = 'block';
+        }
+      }
+
+      function renderChart(data) {
+        const errEl = document.getElementById('chart-error');
+        if (!data.labels || data.labels.length === 0) {
+          errEl.style.display = 'block';
+          return;
+        }
+        errEl.style.display = 'none';
+
+        const colors = data.pnl.map(v => v >= 0 ? 'rgba(60,179,113,0.75)' : 'rgba(224,85,85,0.75)');
+        const borderColors = data.pnl.map(v => v >= 0 ? '#3cb371' : '#e05555');
+
+        if (pnlChart) { pnlChart.destroy(); pnlChart = null; }
+        const ctx = document.getElementById('pnl-chart').getContext('2d');
+        pnlChart = new Chart(ctx, {
+          type: 'bar',
+          data: {
+            labels: data.labels,
+            datasets: [{
+              label: 'Daily P&L',
+              data: data.pnl,
+              backgroundColor: colors,
+              borderColor: borderColors,
+              borderWidth: 1,
+              borderRadius: 3,
+            }]
+          },
+          options: {
+            responsive: true,
+            maintainAspectRatio: false,
+            plugins: {
+              legend: { display: false },
+              tooltip: {
+                callbacks: {
+                  label: ctx => {
+                    const v = ctx.parsed.y;
+                    const sign = v >= 0 ? '+' : '';
+                    const trades = data.trades[ctx.dataIndex];
+                    return [`P&L: ${sign}${v.toFixed(2)}`, `거래: ${trades}건`];
+                  }
+                }
+              }
+            },
+            scales: {
+              x: {
+                ticks: { color: '#9fb3c8', font: { size: 10 }, maxRotation: 0 },
+                grid: { color: 'rgba(40,69,95,0.4)' }
+              },
+              y: {
+                ticks: { color: '#9fb3c8', font: { size: 10 } },
+                grid: { color: 'rgba(40,69,95,0.4)' }
+              }
+            }
+          }
+        });
+      }
+
+      async function fetchDecisions(market) {
+        const tbody = document.getElementById('decisions-body');
+        tbody.innerHTML = '<tr class="empty-row"><td colspan="5"><span class="spinner"></span></td></tr>';
+        try {
+          const r = await fetch(`/api/decisions?market=${market}&limit=50`);
+          if (!r.ok) throw new Error('fetch failed');
+          const d = await r.json();
+          if (!d.decisions || d.decisions.length === 0) {
+            tbody.innerHTML = '<tr class="empty-row"><td colspan="5">결정 로그 없음</td></tr>';
+            return;
+          }
+          tbody.innerHTML = d.decisions.map(dec => `
+            <tr>
+              <td>${fmt(dec.timestamp)}</td>
+              <td>${dec.stock_code || '--'}</td>
+              <td>${badge(dec.action)}</td>
+              <td>${confBar(dec.confidence)}</td>
+              <td class="rationale-cell" title="${(dec.rationale || '').replace(/"/g, '&quot;')}">${dec.rationale || '--'}</td>
+            </tr>
+          `).join('');
+        } catch {
+          tbody.innerHTML = '<tr class="empty-row"><td colspan="5">데이터 로드 실패</td></tr>';
+        }
+      }
+
+      function selectDays(btn) {
+        document.querySelectorAll('.day-btn').forEach(b => b.classList.remove('active'));
+        btn.classList.add('active');
+        currentDays = parseInt(btn.dataset.days, 10);
+        fetchPnlHistory(currentDays);
+      }
+
+      function selectMarket(btn) {
+        document.querySelectorAll('.tab-btn').forEach(b => b.classList.remove('active'));
+        btn.classList.add('active');
+        currentMarket = btn.dataset.market;
+        fetchDecisions(currentMarket);
+      }
+
+      async function refreshAll() {
+        document.getElementById('last-updated').textContent = '업데이트 중...';
+        await Promise.all([
+          fetchStatus(),
+          fetchPerformance(),
+          fetchPnlHistory(currentDays),
+          fetchDecisions(currentMarket),
+        ]);
+        const now = new Date();
+        const timeStr = now.toLocaleTimeString('ko-KR', { hour: '2-digit', minute: '2-digit', second: '2-digit', hour12: false });
+        document.getElementById('last-updated').textContent = `마지막 업데이트: ${timeStr}`;
+      }
+
+      // Initial load
+      refreshAll();
+
+      // Auto-refresh every 30 seconds
+      setInterval(refreshAll, 30000);
+    </script>
   </body>
 </html>

src/main.py

@@ -41,8 +41,8 @@ from src.evolution.optimizer import EvolutionOptimizer
 from src.logging.decision_logger import DecisionLogger
 from src.logging_config import setup_logging
 from src.markets.schedule import MarketInfo, get_next_market_open, get_open_markets
-from src.notifications.telegram_client import TelegramClient, TelegramCommandHandler
+from src.notifications.telegram_client import NotificationFilter, TelegramClient, TelegramCommandHandler
-from src.strategy.models import DayPlaybook
+from src.strategy.models import DayPlaybook, MarketOutlook
 from src.strategy.playbook_store import PlaybookStore
 from src.strategy.pre_market_planner import PreMarketPlanner
 from src.strategy.scenario_engine import ScenarioEngine
@@ -81,6 +81,7 @@ def safe_float(value: str | float | None, default: float = 0.0) -> float:
 TRADE_INTERVAL_SECONDS = 60
 SCAN_INTERVAL_SECONDS = 60  # Scan markets every 60 seconds
 MAX_CONNECTION_RETRIES = 3
+_BUY_COOLDOWN_SECONDS = 600  # 10-minute cooldown after insufficient-balance rejection
 
 # Daily trading mode constants (for Free tier API efficiency)
 DAILY_TRADE_SESSIONS = 4  # Number of trading sessions per day
@@ -106,6 +107,82 @@ def _extract_symbol_from_holding(item: dict[str, Any]) -> str:
     return ""
 
 
+def _extract_held_codes_from_balance(
+    balance_data: dict[str, Any],
+    *,
+    is_domestic: bool,
+) -> list[str]:
+    """Return stock codes with a positive orderable quantity from a balance response.
+
+    Uses the broker's live output1 as the source of truth so that partial fills
+    and manual external trades are always reflected correctly.
+    """
+    output1 = balance_data.get("output1", [])
+    if isinstance(output1, dict):
+        output1 = [output1]
+    if not isinstance(output1, list):
+        return []
+
+    codes: list[str] = []
+    for holding in output1:
+        if not isinstance(holding, dict):
+            continue
+        code_key = "pdno" if is_domestic else "ovrs_pdno"
+        code = str(holding.get(code_key, "")).strip().upper()
+        if not code:
+            continue
+        if is_domestic:
+            qty = int(holding.get("ord_psbl_qty") or holding.get("hldg_qty") or 0)
+        else:
+            qty = int(holding.get("ovrs_cblc_qty") or holding.get("hldg_qty") or 0)
+        if qty > 0:
+            codes.append(code)
+    return codes
+
+
+def _extract_held_qty_from_balance(
+    balance_data: dict[str, Any],
+    stock_code: str,
+    *,
+    is_domestic: bool,
+) -> int:
+    """Extract the broker-confirmed orderable quantity for a stock.
+
+    Uses the broker's live balance response (output1) as the source of truth
+    rather than the local DB, because DB records reflect order quantity which
+    may differ from actual fill quantity due to partial fills.
+
+    Domestic fields (VTTC8434R output1):
+        pdno          — 종목코드
+        ord_psbl_qty  — 주문가능수량 (preferred: excludes unsettled)
+        hldg_qty      — 보유수량 (fallback)
+
+    Overseas fields (output1):
+        ovrs_pdno     — 종목코드
+        ovrs_cblc_qty — 해외잔고수량 (preferred)
+        hldg_qty      — 보유수량 (fallback)
+    """
+    output1 = balance_data.get("output1", [])
+    if isinstance(output1, dict):
+        output1 = [output1]
+    if not isinstance(output1, list):
+        return 0
+
+    for holding in output1:
+        if not isinstance(holding, dict):
+            continue
+        code_key = "pdno" if is_domestic else "ovrs_pdno"
+        held_code = str(holding.get(code_key, "")).strip().upper()
+        if held_code != stock_code.strip().upper():
+            continue
+        if is_domestic:
+            qty = int(holding.get("ord_psbl_qty") or holding.get("hldg_qty") or 0)
+        else:
+            qty = int(holding.get("ovrs_cblc_qty") or holding.get("hldg_qty") or 0)
+        return qty
+    return 0
+
+
 def _determine_order_quantity(
     *,
     action: str,
@@ -113,16 +190,40 @@ def _determine_order_quantity(
     total_cash: float,
     candidate: ScanCandidate | None,
     settings: Settings | None,
+    broker_held_qty: int = 0,
+    playbook_allocation_pct: float | None = None,
+    scenario_confidence: int = 80,
 ) -> int:
-    """Determine order quantity using volatility-aware position sizing."""
+    """Determine order quantity using volatility-aware position sizing.
-    if action != "BUY":
+
-        return 1
+    Priority:
+    1. playbook_allocation_pct (AI-specified) scaled by scenario_confidence
+    2. Fallback: volatility-score-based allocation from scanner candidate
+    """
+    if action == "SELL":
+        return broker_held_qty
     if current_price <= 0 or total_cash <= 0:
         return 0
 
     if settings is None or not settings.POSITION_SIZING_ENABLED:
         return 1
 
+    # Use AI-specified allocation_pct if available
+    if playbook_allocation_pct is not None:
+        # Confidence scaling: confidence 80 → 1.0x, confidence 95 → 1.19x
+        confidence_scale = scenario_confidence / 80.0
+        effective_pct = min(
+            settings.POSITION_MAX_ALLOCATION_PCT,
+            max(
+                settings.POSITION_MIN_ALLOCATION_PCT,
+                playbook_allocation_pct * confidence_scale,
+            ),
+        )
+        budget = total_cash * (effective_pct / 100.0)
+        quantity = int(budget // current_price)
+        return max(0, quantity)
+
+    # Fallback: volatility-score-based allocation
     target_score = max(1.0, settings.POSITION_VOLATILITY_TARGET_SCORE)
     observed_score = candidate.score if candidate else target_score
     observed_score = max(1.0, min(100.0, observed_score))
@@ -198,6 +299,7 @@ async def trading_cycle(
     stock_code: str,
     scan_candidates: dict[str, dict[str, ScanCandidate]],
     settings: Settings | None = None,
+    buy_cooldown: dict[str, float] | None = None,
 ) -> None:
     """Execute one trading cycle for a single stock."""
     cycle_start_time = asyncio.get_event_loop().time()
@@ -380,6 +482,34 @@ async def trading_cycle(
     )
     stock_playbook = playbook.get_stock_playbook(stock_code)
 
+    # 2.1. Apply market_outlook-based BUY confidence threshold
+    if decision.action == "BUY":
+        base_threshold = (settings.CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD if settings else 80)
+        outlook = playbook.market_outlook
+        if outlook == MarketOutlook.BEARISH:
+            min_confidence = 90
+        elif outlook == MarketOutlook.BULLISH:
+            min_confidence = 75
+        else:
+            min_confidence = base_threshold
+        if match.confidence < min_confidence:
+            logger.info(
+                "BUY suppressed for %s (%s): confidence %d < %d (market_outlook=%s)",
+                stock_code,
+                market.name,
+                match.confidence,
+                min_confidence,
+                outlook.value,
+            )
+            decision = TradeDecision(
+                action="HOLD",
+                confidence=match.confidence,
+                rationale=(
+                    f"BUY confidence {match.confidence} < {min_confidence} "
+                    f"(market_outlook={outlook.value})"
+                ),
+            )
+
     if decision.action == "HOLD":
         open_position = get_open_position(db_conn, stock_code, market.code)
         if open_position:
@@ -387,8 +517,10 @@ async def trading_cycle(
             if entry_price > 0:
                 loss_pct = (current_price - entry_price) / entry_price * 100
                 stop_loss_threshold = -2.0
+                take_profit_threshold = 3.0
                 if stock_playbook and stock_playbook.scenarios:
                     stop_loss_threshold = stock_playbook.scenarios[0].stop_loss_pct
+                    take_profit_threshold = stock_playbook.scenarios[0].take_profit_pct
 
                 if loss_pct <= stop_loss_threshold:
                     decision = TradeDecision(
@@ -406,6 +538,22 @@ async def trading_cycle(
                         loss_pct,
                         stop_loss_threshold,
                     )
+                elif loss_pct >= take_profit_threshold:
+                    decision = TradeDecision(
+                        action="SELL",
+                        confidence=90,
+                        rationale=(
+                            f"Take-profit triggered ({loss_pct:.2f}% >= "
+                            f"{take_profit_threshold:.2f}%)"
+                        ),
+                    )
+                    logger.info(
+                        "Take-profit override for %s (%s): %.2f%% >= %.2f%%",
+                        stock_code,
+                        market.name,
+                        loss_pct,
+                        take_profit_threshold,
+                    )
     logger.info(
         "Decision for %s (%s): %s (confidence=%d)",
         stock_code,
@@ -466,12 +614,23 @@ async def trading_cycle(
     trade_price = current_price
     trade_pnl = 0.0
     if decision.action in ("BUY", "SELL"):
+        broker_held_qty = (
+            _extract_held_qty_from_balance(
+                balance_data, stock_code, is_domestic=market.is_domestic
+            )
+            if decision.action == "SELL"
+            else 0
+        )
+        matched_scenario = match.matched_scenario
         quantity = _determine_order_quantity(
             action=decision.action,
             current_price=current_price,
             total_cash=total_cash,
             candidate=candidate,
             settings=settings,
+            broker_held_qty=broker_held_qty,
+            playbook_allocation_pct=matched_scenario.allocation_pct if matched_scenario else None,
+            scenario_confidence=match.confidence,
         )
         if quantity <= 0:
             logger.info(
@@ -485,8 +644,28 @@ async def trading_cycle(
             return
         order_amount = current_price * quantity
 
-        # 4. Risk check BEFORE order
+        # 4. Check BUY cooldown (set when a prior BUY failed due to insufficient balance)
+        if decision.action == "BUY" and buy_cooldown is not None:
+            cooldown_key = f"{market.code}:{stock_code}"
+            cooldown_until = buy_cooldown.get(cooldown_key, 0.0)
+            now = asyncio.get_event_loop().time()
+            if now < cooldown_until:
+                remaining = int(cooldown_until - now)
+                logger.info(
+                    "Skip BUY %s (%s): insufficient-balance cooldown active (%ds remaining)",
+                    stock_code,
+                    market.name,
+                    remaining,
+                )
+                return
+
+        # 5a. Risk check BEFORE order
+        # SELL orders do not consume cash (they receive it), so fat-finger check
+        # is skipped for SELLs — only circuit breaker applies.
         try:
+            if decision.action == "SELL":
+                risk.check_circuit_breaker(pnl_pct)
+            else:
                 risk.validate_order(
                     current_pnl_pct=pnl_pct,
                     order_amount=order_amount,
@@ -533,11 +712,23 @@ async def trading_cycle(
             # Check if KIS rejected the order (rt_cd != "0")
             if result.get("rt_cd", "") != "0":
                 order_succeeded = False
+                msg1 = result.get("msg1") or ""
                 logger.warning(
                     "Overseas order not accepted for %s: rt_cd=%s msg=%s",
                     stock_code,
                     result.get("rt_cd"),
-                    result.get("msg1"),
+                    msg1,
+                )
+                # Set BUY cooldown when the rejection is due to insufficient balance
+                if decision.action == "BUY" and buy_cooldown is not None and "주문가능금액" in msg1:
+                    cooldown_key = f"{market.code}:{stock_code}"
+                    buy_cooldown[cooldown_key] = (
+                        asyncio.get_event_loop().time() + _BUY_COOLDOWN_SECONDS
+                    )
+                    logger.info(
+                        "BUY cooldown set for %s: %.0fs (insufficient balance)",
+                        stock_code,
+                        _BUY_COOLDOWN_SECONDS,
                     )
         logger.info("Order result: %s", result.get("msg1", "OK"))
 
@@ -646,6 +837,9 @@ async def run_daily_session(
 
     logger.info("Starting daily trading session for %d markets", len(open_markets))
 
+    # BUY cooldown: prevents retrying stocks rejected for insufficient balance
+    daily_buy_cooldown: dict[str, float] = {}  # "{market_code}:{stock_code}" -> expiry timestamp
+
     # Process each open market
     for market in open_markets:
         # Use market-local date for playbook keying
@@ -891,12 +1085,20 @@ async def run_daily_session(
             trade_pnl = 0.0
             order_succeeded = True
             if decision.action in ("BUY", "SELL"):
+                daily_broker_held_qty = (
+                    _extract_held_qty_from_balance(
+                        balance_data, stock_code, is_domestic=market.is_domestic
+                    )
+                    if decision.action == "SELL"
+                    else 0
+                )
                 quantity = _determine_order_quantity(
                     action=decision.action,
                     current_price=stock_data["current_price"],
                     total_cash=total_cash,
                     candidate=candidate_map.get(stock_code),
                     settings=settings,
+                    broker_held_qty=daily_broker_held_qty,
                 )
                 if quantity <= 0:
                     logger.info(
@@ -910,8 +1112,28 @@ async def run_daily_session(
                     continue
                 order_amount = stock_data["current_price"] * quantity
 
+                # Check BUY cooldown (insufficient balance)
+                if decision.action == "BUY":
+                    daily_cooldown_key = f"{market.code}:{stock_code}"
+                    daily_cooldown_until = daily_buy_cooldown.get(daily_cooldown_key, 0.0)
+                    now = asyncio.get_event_loop().time()
+                    if now < daily_cooldown_until:
+                        remaining = int(daily_cooldown_until - now)
+                        logger.info(
+                            "Skip BUY %s (%s): insufficient-balance cooldown active (%ds remaining)",
+                            stock_code,
+                            market.name,
+                            remaining,
+                        )
+                        continue
+
                 # Risk check
+                # SELL orders do not consume cash (they receive it), so fat-finger
+                # check is skipped for SELLs — only circuit breaker applies.
                 try:
+                    if decision.action == "SELL":
+                        risk.check_circuit_breaker(pnl_pct)
+                    else:
                         risk.validate_order(
                             current_pnl_pct=pnl_pct,
                             order_amount=order_amount,
@@ -966,11 +1188,22 @@ async def run_daily_session(
                         )
                         if result.get("rt_cd", "") != "0":
                             order_succeeded = False
+                            daily_msg1 = result.get("msg1") or ""
                             logger.warning(
                                 "Overseas order not accepted for %s: rt_cd=%s msg=%s",
                                 stock_code,
                                 result.get("rt_cd"),
-                                result.get("msg1"),
+                                daily_msg1,
+                            )
+                            if decision.action == "BUY" and "주문가능금액" in daily_msg1:
+                                daily_cooldown_key = f"{market.code}:{stock_code}"
+                                daily_buy_cooldown[daily_cooldown_key] = (
+                                    asyncio.get_event_loop().time() + _BUY_COOLDOWN_SECONDS
+                                )
+                                logger.info(
+                                    "BUY cooldown set for %s: %.0fs (insufficient balance)",
+                                    stock_code,
+                                    _BUY_COOLDOWN_SECONDS,
                                 )
                     logger.info("Order result: %s", result.get("msg1", "OK"))
 
@@ -1135,10 +1368,18 @@ def _start_dashboard_server(settings: Settings) -> threading.Thread | None:
     if not settings.DASHBOARD_ENABLED:
         return None
 
+    # Validate dependencies before spawning the thread so startup failures are
+    # reported synchronously (avoids the misleading "started" → "failed" log pair).
+    try:
+        import uvicorn  # noqa: F401
+        from src.dashboard import create_dashboard_app  # noqa: F401
+    except ImportError as exc:
+        logger.warning("Dashboard server unavailable (missing dependency): %s", exc)
+        return None
+
     def _serve() -> None:
         try:
             import uvicorn
-
             from src.dashboard import create_dashboard_app
 
             app = create_dashboard_app(settings.DB_PATH)
@@ -1149,7 +1390,7 @@ def _start_dashboard_server(settings: Settings) -> threading.Thread | None:
                 log_level="info",
             )
         except Exception as exc:
-            logger.warning("Dashboard server failed to start: %s", exc)
+            logger.warning("Dashboard server stopped unexpectedly: %s", exc)
 
     thread = threading.Thread(
         target=_serve,
@@ -1208,6 +1449,15 @@ async def run(settings: Settings) -> None:
         bot_token=settings.TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN,
         chat_id=settings.TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID,
         enabled=settings.TELEGRAM_ENABLED,
+        notification_filter=NotificationFilter(
+            trades=settings.TELEGRAM_NOTIFY_TRADES,
+            market_open_close=settings.TELEGRAM_NOTIFY_MARKET_OPEN_CLOSE,
+            fat_finger=settings.TELEGRAM_NOTIFY_FAT_FINGER,
+            system_events=settings.TELEGRAM_NOTIFY_SYSTEM_EVENTS,
+            playbook=settings.TELEGRAM_NOTIFY_PLAYBOOK,
+            scenario_match=settings.TELEGRAM_NOTIFY_SCENARIO_MATCH,
+            errors=settings.TELEGRAM_NOTIFY_ERRORS,
+        ),
     )
 
     # Initialize Telegram command handler
@@ -1226,7 +1476,11 @@ async def run(settings: Settings) -> None:
             "/review - Recent scorecards\n"
             "/dashboard - Dashboard URL/status\n"
             "/stop - Pause trading\n"
-            "/resume - Resume trading"
+            "/resume - Resume trading\n"
+            "/notify - Show notification filter status\n"
+            "/notify [key] [on|off] - Toggle notification type\n"
+            "  Keys: trades, market, scenario, playbook,\n"
+            "        system, fatfinger, errors, all"
         )
         await telegram.send_message(message)
 
@@ -1479,6 +1733,63 @@ async def run(settings: Settings) -> None:
                 "<b>⚠️ Error</b>\n\nFailed to retrieve reviews."
             )
 
+    async def handle_notify(args: list[str]) -> None:
+        """Handle /notify [key] [on|off] — query or change notification filters."""
+        status = telegram.filter_status()
+
+        # /notify — show current state
+        if not args:
+            lines = ["<b>🔔 알림 필터 현재 상태</b>\n"]
+            for key, enabled in status.items():
+                icon = "✅" if enabled else "❌"
+                lines.append(f"{icon} <code>{key}</code>")
+            lines.append("\n<i>예) /notify scenario off</i>")
+            lines.append("<i>예) /notify all off</i>")
+            await telegram.send_message("\n".join(lines))
+            return
+
+        # /notify [key] — missing on/off
+        if len(args) == 1:
+            key = args[0].lower()
+            if key == "all":
+                lines = ["<b>🔔 알림 필터 현재 상태</b>\n"]
+                for k, enabled in status.items():
+                    icon = "✅" if enabled else "❌"
+                    lines.append(f"{icon} <code>{k}</code>")
+                await telegram.send_message("\n".join(lines))
+            elif key in status:
+                icon = "✅" if status[key] else "❌"
+                await telegram.send_message(
+                    f"<b>🔔 {key}</b>: {icon} {'켜짐' if status[key] else '꺼짐'}\n"
+                    f"<i>/notify {key} on  또는  /notify {key} off</i>"
+                )
+            else:
+                valid = ", ".join(list(status.keys()) + ["all"])
+                await telegram.send_message(
+                    f"❌ 알 수 없는 키: <code>{key}</code>\n"
+                    f"유효한 키: {valid}"
+                )
+            return
+
+        # /notify [key] [on|off]
+        key, toggle = args[0].lower(), args[1].lower()
+        if toggle not in ("on", "off"):
+            await telegram.send_message("❌ on 또는 off 를 입력해 주세요.")
+            return
+        value = toggle == "on"
+        if telegram.set_notification(key, value):
+            icon = "✅" if value else "❌"
+            label = f"전체 알림" if key == "all" else f"<code>{key}</code> 알림"
+            state = "켜짐" if value else "꺼짐"
+            await telegram.send_message(f"{icon} {label} → {state}")
+            logger.info("Notification filter changed via Telegram: %s=%s", key, value)
+        else:
+            valid = ", ".join(list(telegram.filter_status().keys()) + ["all"])
+            await telegram.send_message(
+                f"❌ 알 수 없는 키: <code>{key}</code>\n"
+                f"유효한 키: {valid}"
+            )
+
     async def handle_dashboard() -> None:
         """Handle /dashboard command - show dashboard URL if enabled."""
         if not settings.DASHBOARD_ENABLED:
@@ -1502,6 +1813,7 @@ async def run(settings: Settings) -> None:
     command_handler.register_command("scenarios", handle_scenarios)
     command_handler.register_command("review", handle_review)
     command_handler.register_command("dashboard", handle_dashboard)
+    command_handler.register_command_with_args("notify", handle_notify)
 
     # Initialize volatility hunter
     volatility_analyzer = VolatilityAnalyzer(min_volume_surge=2.0, min_price_change=1.0)
@@ -1519,6 +1831,9 @@ async def run(settings: Settings) -> None:
     # Active stocks per market (dynamically discovered by scanner)
     active_stocks: dict[str, list[str]] = {}  # market_code -> [stock_codes]
 
+    # BUY cooldown: prevents retrying a stock rejected for insufficient balance
+    buy_cooldown: dict[str, float] = {}  # "{market_code}:{stock_code}" -> expiry timestamp
+
     # Initialize latency control system
     criticality_assessor = CriticalityAssessor(
         critical_pnl_threshold=-2.5,  # Near circuit breaker at -3.0%
@@ -1792,8 +2107,38 @@ async def run(settings: Settings) -> None:
                         except Exception as exc:
                             logger.error("Smart Scanner failed for %s: %s", market.name, exc)
 
-                    # Get active stocks from scanner (dynamic, no static fallback)
+                    # Get active stocks from scanner (dynamic, no static fallback).
-                    stock_codes = active_stocks.get(market.code, [])
+                    # Also include currently-held positions so stop-loss /
+                    # take-profit can fire even when a holding drops off the
+                    # scanner.  Broker balance is the source of truth here —
+                    # unlike the local DB it reflects actual fills and any
+                    # manual trades done outside the bot.
+                    scanner_codes = active_stocks.get(market.code, [])
+                    try:
+                        if market.is_domestic:
+                            held_balance = await broker.get_balance()
+                        else:
+                            held_balance = await overseas_broker.get_overseas_balance(
+                                market.exchange_code
+                            )
+                        held_codes = _extract_held_codes_from_balance(
+                            held_balance, is_domestic=market.is_domestic
+                        )
+                    except Exception as exc:
+                        logger.warning(
+                            "Failed to fetch holdings for %s: %s — skipping holdings merge",
+                            market.name, exc,
+                        )
+                        held_codes = []
+
+                    stock_codes = list(dict.fromkeys(scanner_codes + held_codes))
+                    extra_held = [c for c in held_codes if c not in set(scanner_codes)]
+                    if extra_held:
+                        logger.info(
+                            "Holdings added to loop for %s (not in scanner): %s",
+                            market.name, extra_held,
+                        )
+
                     if not stock_codes:
                         logger.debug("No active stocks for market %s", market.code)
                         continue
@@ -1831,6 +2176,7 @@ async def run(settings: Settings) -> None:
                                     stock_code,
                                     scan_candidates,
                                     settings,
+                                    buy_cooldown,
                                 )
                                 break  # Success — exit retry loop
                             except CircuitBreakerTripped as exc:

src/notifications/telegram_client.py

@@ -4,8 +4,9 @@ import asyncio
 import logging
 import time
 from collections.abc import Awaitable, Callable
-from dataclasses import dataclass
+from dataclasses import dataclass, fields
 from enum import Enum
+from typing import ClassVar
 
 import aiohttp
 
@@ -58,6 +59,45 @@ class LeakyBucket:
                 self._tokens -= 1.0
 
 
+@dataclass
+class NotificationFilter:
+    """Granular on/off flags for each notification type.
+
+    circuit_breaker is intentionally omitted — it is always sent regardless.
+    """
+
+    # Maps user-facing command keys to dataclass field names
+    KEYS: ClassVar[dict[str, str]] = {
+        "trades": "trades",
+        "market": "market_open_close",
+        "fatfinger": "fat_finger",
+        "system": "system_events",
+        "playbook": "playbook",
+        "scenario": "scenario_match",
+        "errors": "errors",
+    }
+
+    trades: bool = True
+    market_open_close: bool = True
+    fat_finger: bool = True
+    system_events: bool = True
+    playbook: bool = True
+    scenario_match: bool = True
+    errors: bool = True
+
+    def set_flag(self, key: str, value: bool) -> bool:
+        """Set a filter flag by user-facing key. Returns False if key is unknown."""
+        field = self.KEYS.get(key.lower())
+        if field is None:
+            return False
+        setattr(self, field, value)
+        return True
+
+    def as_dict(self) -> dict[str, bool]:
+        """Return {user_key: current_value} for display."""
+        return {k: getattr(self, field) for k, field in self.KEYS.items()}
+
+
 @dataclass
 class NotificationMessage:
     """Internal notification message structure."""
@@ -79,6 +119,7 @@ class TelegramClient:
         chat_id: str | None = None,
         enabled: bool = True,
         rate_limit: float = DEFAULT_RATE,
+        notification_filter: NotificationFilter | None = None,
     ) -> None:
         """
         Initialize Telegram client.
@@ -88,12 +129,14 @@ class TelegramClient:
             chat_id: Target chat ID (user or group)
             enabled: Enable/disable notifications globally
             rate_limit: Maximum messages per second
+            notification_filter: Granular per-type on/off flags
         """
         self._bot_token = bot_token
         self._chat_id = chat_id
         self._enabled = enabled
         self._rate_limiter = LeakyBucket(rate=rate_limit)
         self._session: aiohttp.ClientSession | None = None
+        self._filter = notification_filter if notification_filter is not None else NotificationFilter()
 
         if not enabled:
             logger.info("Telegram notifications disabled via configuration")
@@ -118,6 +161,26 @@ class TelegramClient:
         if self._session is not None and not self._session.closed:
             await self._session.close()
 
+    def set_notification(self, key: str, value: bool) -> bool:
+        """Toggle a notification type by user-facing key at runtime.
+
+        Args:
+            key: User-facing key (e.g. "scenario", "market", "all")
+            value: True to enable, False to disable
+
+        Returns:
+            True if key was valid, False if unknown.
+        """
+        if key == "all":
+            for k in NotificationFilter.KEYS:
+                self._filter.set_flag(k, value)
+            return True
+        return self._filter.set_flag(key, value)
+
+    def filter_status(self) -> dict[str, bool]:
+        """Return current per-type filter state keyed by user-facing names."""
+        return self._filter.as_dict()
+
     async def send_message(self, text: str, parse_mode: str = "HTML") -> bool:
         """
         Send a generic text message to Telegram.
@@ -193,6 +256,8 @@ class TelegramClient:
             price: Execution price
             confidence: AI confidence level (0-100)
         """
+        if not self._filter.trades:
+            return
         emoji = "🟢" if action == "BUY" else "🔴"
         message = (
             f"<b>{emoji} {action}</b>\n"
@@ -212,6 +277,8 @@ class TelegramClient:
         Args:
             market_name: Name of the market (e.g., "Korea", "United States")
         """
+        if not self._filter.market_open_close:
+            return
         message = f"<b>Market Open</b>\n{market_name} trading session started"
         await self._send_notification(
             NotificationMessage(priority=NotificationPriority.LOW, message=message)
@@ -225,6 +292,8 @@ class TelegramClient:
             market_name: Name of the market
             pnl_pct: Final P&L percentage for the session
         """
+        if not self._filter.market_open_close:
+            return
         pnl_sign = "+" if pnl_pct >= 0 else ""
         pnl_emoji = "📈" if pnl_pct >= 0 else "📉"
         message = (
@@ -271,6 +340,8 @@ class TelegramClient:
             total_cash: Total available cash
             max_pct: Maximum allowed percentage
         """
+        if not self._filter.fat_finger:
+            return
         attempted_pct = (order_amount / total_cash) * 100 if total_cash > 0 else 0
         message = (
             f"<b>Fat-Finger Protection</b>\n"
@@ -293,6 +364,8 @@ class TelegramClient:
             mode: Trading mode ("paper" or "live")
             enabled_markets: List of enabled market codes
         """
+        if not self._filter.system_events:
+            return
         mode_emoji = "📝" if mode == "paper" else "💰"
         markets_str = ", ".join(enabled_markets)
         message = (
@@ -320,6 +393,8 @@ class TelegramClient:
             scenario_count: Total number of scenarios
             token_count: Gemini token usage for the playbook
         """
+        if not self._filter.playbook:
+            return
         message = (
             f"<b>Playbook Generated</b>\n"
             f"Market: {market}\n"
@@ -347,6 +422,8 @@ class TelegramClient:
             condition_summary: Short summary of the matched condition
             confidence: Scenario confidence (0-100)
         """
+        if not self._filter.scenario_match:
+            return
         message = (
             f"<b>Scenario Matched</b>\n"
             f"Symbol: <code>{stock_code}</code>\n"
@@ -366,6 +443,8 @@ class TelegramClient:
             market: Market code (e.g., "KR", "US")
             reason: Failure reason summary
         """
+        if not self._filter.playbook:
+            return
         message = (
             f"<b>Playbook Failed</b>\n"
             f"Market: {market}\n"
@@ -382,6 +461,8 @@ class TelegramClient:
         Args:
             reason: Reason for shutdown (e.g., "Normal shutdown", "Circuit breaker")
         """
+        if not self._filter.system_events:
+            return
         message = f"<b>System Shutdown</b>\n{reason}"
         priority = (
             NotificationPriority.CRITICAL
@@ -403,6 +484,8 @@ class TelegramClient:
             error_msg: Error message
             context: Error context (e.g., stock code, market)
         """
+        if not self._filter.errors:
+            return
         message = (
             f"<b>Error: {error_type}</b>\n"
             f"Context: {context}\n"
@@ -429,6 +512,7 @@ class TelegramCommandHandler:
         self._client = client
         self._polling_interval = polling_interval
         self._commands: dict[str, Callable[[], Awaitable[None]]] = {}
+        self._commands_with_args: dict[str, Callable[[list[str]], Awaitable[None]]] = {}
         self._last_update_id = 0
         self._polling_task: asyncio.Task[None] | None = None
         self._running = False
@@ -437,7 +521,7 @@ class TelegramCommandHandler:
         self, command: str, handler: Callable[[], Awaitable[None]]
     ) -> None:
         """
-        Register a command handler.
+        Register a command handler (no arguments).
 
         Args:
             command: Command name (without leading slash, e.g., "start")
@@ -446,6 +530,19 @@ class TelegramCommandHandler:
         self._commands[command] = handler
         logger.debug("Registered command handler: /%s", command)
 
+    def register_command_with_args(
+        self, command: str, handler: Callable[[list[str]], Awaitable[None]]
+    ) -> None:
+        """
+        Register a command handler that receives trailing arguments.
+
+        Args:
+            command: Command name (without leading slash, e.g., "notify")
+            handler: Async function receiving list of argument tokens
+        """
+        self._commands_with_args[command] = handler
+        logger.debug("Registered command handler (with args): /%s", command)
+
     async def start_polling(self) -> None:
         """Start long polling for commands."""
         if self._running:
@@ -507,6 +604,16 @@ class TelegramCommandHandler:
             async with session.post(url, json=payload) as resp:
                 if resp.status != 200:
                     error_text = await resp.text()
+                    if resp.status == 409:
+                        # Another bot instance is already polling — stop this poller entirely.
+                        # Retrying would keep conflicting with the other instance.
+                        self._running = False
+                        logger.warning(
+                            "Telegram conflict (409): another instance is already polling. "
+                            "Disabling Telegram commands for this process. "
+                            "Ensure only one instance of The Ouroboros is running at a time.",
+                        )
+                    else:
                         logger.error(
                             "getUpdates API error (status=%d): %s", resp.status, error_text
                         )
@@ -566,11 +673,14 @@ class TelegramCommandHandler:
             # Remove @botname suffix if present (for group chats)
             command_name = command_parts[0].split("@")[0]
 
-            # Execute handler
+            # Execute handler (args-aware handlers take priority)
-            handler = self._commands.get(command_name)
+            args_handler = self._commands_with_args.get(command_name)
-            if handler:
+            if args_handler:
+                logger.info("Executing command: /%s %s", command_name, command_parts[1:])
+                await args_handler(command_parts[1:])
+            elif command_name in self._commands:
                 logger.info("Executing command: /%s", command_name)
-                await handler()
+                await self._commands[command_name]()
             else:
                 logger.debug("Unknown command: /%s", command_name)
                 await self._client.send_message(

src/strategy/models.py

@@ -46,6 +46,18 @@ class StockCondition(BaseModel):
 
     The ScenarioEngine evaluates all non-None fields as AND conditions.
     A condition matches only if ALL specified fields are satisfied.
+
+    Technical indicator fields:
+        rsi_below / rsi_above — RSI threshold
+        volume_ratio_above / volume_ratio_below — volume vs previous day
+        price_above / price_below — absolute price level
+        price_change_pct_above / price_change_pct_below — intraday % change
+
+    Position-aware fields (require market_data enrichment from open position):
+        unrealized_pnl_pct_above — matches if unrealized P&L > threshold (e.g. 3.0 → +3%)
+        unrealized_pnl_pct_below — matches if unrealized P&L < threshold (e.g. -2.0 → -2%)
+        holding_days_above — matches if position held for more than N days
+        holding_days_below — matches if position held for fewer than N days
     """
 
     rsi_below: float | None = None
@@ -56,6 +68,10 @@ class StockCondition(BaseModel):
     price_below: float | None = None
     price_change_pct_above: float | None = None
     price_change_pct_below: float | None = None
+    unrealized_pnl_pct_above: float | None = None
+    unrealized_pnl_pct_below: float | None = None
+    holding_days_above: int | None = None
+    holding_days_below: int | None = None
 
     def has_any_condition(self) -> bool:
         """Check if at least one condition field is set."""
@@ -70,6 +86,10 @@ class StockCondition(BaseModel):
                 self.price_below,
                 self.price_change_pct_above,
                 self.price_change_pct_below,
+                self.unrealized_pnl_pct_above,
+                self.unrealized_pnl_pct_below,
+                self.holding_days_above,
+                self.holding_days_below,
             )
         )
 

src/strategy/pre_market_planner.py

@@ -75,6 +75,7 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
         market: str,
         candidates: list[ScanCandidate],
         today: date | None = None,
+        current_holdings: list[dict] | None = None,
     ) -> DayPlaybook:
         """Generate a DayPlaybook for a market using Gemini.
 
@@ -82,6 +83,10 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
             market: Market code ("KR" or "US")
             candidates: Stock candidates from SmartVolatilityScanner
             today: Override date (defaults to date.today()). Use market-local date.
+            current_holdings: Currently held positions with entry_price and unrealized_pnl_pct.
+                Each dict: {"stock_code": str, "name": str, "qty": int,
+                            "entry_price": float, "unrealized_pnl_pct": float,
+                            "holding_days": int}
 
         Returns:
             DayPlaybook with scenarios. Empty/defensive if no candidates or failure.
@@ -106,6 +111,7 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
                 context_data,
                 self_market_scorecard,
                 cross_market,
+                current_holdings=current_holdings,
             )
 
             # 3. Call Gemini
@@ -118,7 +124,8 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
 
             # 4. Parse response
             playbook = self._parse_response(
-                decision.rationale, today, market, candidates, cross_market
+                decision.rationale, today, market, candidates, cross_market,
+                current_holdings=current_holdings,
             )
             playbook_with_tokens = playbook.model_copy(
                 update={"token_count": decision.token_count}
@@ -230,6 +237,7 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
         context_data: dict[str, Any],
         self_market_scorecard: dict[str, Any] | None,
         cross_market: CrossMarketContext | None,
+        current_holdings: list[dict] | None = None,
     ) -> str:
         """Build a structured prompt for Gemini to generate scenario JSON."""
         max_scenarios = self._settings.MAX_SCENARIOS_PER_STOCK
@@ -241,6 +249,26 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
             for c in candidates
         )
 
+        holdings_text = ""
+        if current_holdings:
+            lines = []
+            for h in current_holdings:
+                code = h.get("stock_code", "")
+                name = h.get("name", "")
+                qty = h.get("qty", 0)
+                entry_price = h.get("entry_price", 0.0)
+                pnl_pct = h.get("unrealized_pnl_pct", 0.0)
+                holding_days = h.get("holding_days", 0)
+                lines.append(
+                    f"  - {code} ({name}): {qty}주 @ {entry_price:,.0f}, "
+                    f"미실현손익 {pnl_pct:+.2f}%, 보유 {holding_days}일"
+                )
+            holdings_text = (
+                "\n## Current Holdings (보유 중 — SELL/HOLD 전략 고려 필요)\n"
+                + "\n".join(lines)
+                + "\n"
+            )
+
         cross_market_text = ""
         if cross_market:
             cross_market_text = (
@@ -273,10 +301,20 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
                     for key, value in list(layer_data.items())[:5]:
                         context_text += f"  - {key}: {value}\n"
 
+        holdings_instruction = ""
+        if current_holdings:
+            holding_codes = [h.get("stock_code", "") for h in current_holdings]
+            holdings_instruction = (
+                f"- Also include SELL/HOLD scenarios for held stocks: "
+                f"{', '.join(holding_codes)} "
+                f"(even if not in candidates list)\n"
+            )
+
         return (
             f"You are a pre-market trading strategist for the {market} market.\n"
             f"Generate structured trading scenarios for today.\n\n"
             f"## Candidates (from volatility scanner)\n{candidates_text}\n"
+            f"{holdings_text}"
             f"{self_market_text}"
             f"{cross_market_text}"
             f"{context_text}\n"
@@ -294,7 +332,8 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
             f'      "stock_code": "...",\n'
             f'      "scenarios": [\n'
             f'        {{\n'
-            f'          "condition": {{"rsi_below": 30, "volume_ratio_above": 2.0}},\n'
+            f'          "condition": {{"rsi_below": 30, "volume_ratio_above": 2.0,'
+            f' "unrealized_pnl_pct_above": 3.0, "holding_days_above": 5}},\n'
             f'          "action": "BUY|SELL|HOLD",\n'
             f'          "confidence": 85,\n'
             f'          "allocation_pct": 10.0,\n'
@@ -308,7 +347,8 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
             f'}}\n\n'
             f"Rules:\n"
             f"- Max {max_scenarios} scenarios per stock\n"
-            f"- Only use stocks from the candidates list\n"
+            f"- Candidates list is the primary source for BUY candidates\n"
+            f"{holdings_instruction}"
             f"- Confidence 0-100 (80+ for actionable trades)\n"
             f"- stop_loss_pct must be <= 0, take_profit_pct must be >= 0\n"
             f"- Return ONLY the JSON, no markdown fences or explanation\n"
@@ -321,12 +361,19 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
         market: str,
         candidates: list[ScanCandidate],
         cross_market: CrossMarketContext | None,
+        current_holdings: list[dict] | None = None,
     ) -> DayPlaybook:
         """Parse Gemini's JSON response into a validated DayPlaybook."""
         cleaned = self._extract_json(response_text)
         data = json.loads(cleaned)
 
         valid_codes = {c.stock_code for c in candidates}
+        # Holdings are also valid — AI may generate SELL/HOLD scenarios for them
+        if current_holdings:
+            for h in current_holdings:
+                code = h.get("stock_code", "")
+                if code:
+                    valid_codes.add(code)
 
         # Parse market outlook
         outlook_str = data.get("market_outlook", "neutral")
@@ -390,6 +437,10 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
                 price_below=cond_data.get("price_below"),
                 price_change_pct_above=cond_data.get("price_change_pct_above"),
                 price_change_pct_below=cond_data.get("price_change_pct_below"),
+                unrealized_pnl_pct_above=cond_data.get("unrealized_pnl_pct_above"),
+                unrealized_pnl_pct_below=cond_data.get("unrealized_pnl_pct_below"),
+                holding_days_above=cond_data.get("holding_days_above"),
+                holding_days_below=cond_data.get("holding_days_below"),
             )
 
             if not condition.has_any_condition():

src/strategy/scenario_engine.py

@@ -206,6 +206,37 @@ class ScenarioEngine:
         if condition.price_change_pct_below is not None:
             checks.append(price_change_pct is not None and price_change_pct < condition.price_change_pct_below)
 
+        # Position-aware conditions
+        unrealized_pnl_pct = self._safe_float(market_data.get("unrealized_pnl_pct"))
+        if condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_above is not None or condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_below is not None:
+            if "unrealized_pnl_pct" not in market_data:
+                self._warn_missing_key("unrealized_pnl_pct")
+        if condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_above is not None:
+            checks.append(
+                unrealized_pnl_pct is not None
+                and unrealized_pnl_pct > condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_above
+            )
+        if condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_below is not None:
+            checks.append(
+                unrealized_pnl_pct is not None
+                and unrealized_pnl_pct < condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_below
+            )
+
+        holding_days = self._safe_float(market_data.get("holding_days"))
+        if condition.holding_days_above is not None or condition.holding_days_below is not None:
+            if "holding_days" not in market_data:
+                self._warn_missing_key("holding_days")
+        if condition.holding_days_above is not None:
+            checks.append(
+                holding_days is not None
+                and holding_days > condition.holding_days_above
+            )
+        if condition.holding_days_below is not None:
+            checks.append(
+                holding_days is not None
+                and holding_days < condition.holding_days_below
+            )
+
         return len(checks) > 0 and all(checks)
 
     def _evaluate_global_condition(
@@ -266,5 +297,9 @@ class ScenarioEngine:
             details["current_price"] = self._safe_float(market_data.get("current_price"))
         if condition.price_change_pct_above is not None or condition.price_change_pct_below is not None:
             details["price_change_pct"] = self._safe_float(market_data.get("price_change_pct"))
+        if condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_above is not None or condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_below is not None:
+            details["unrealized_pnl_pct"] = self._safe_float(market_data.get("unrealized_pnl_pct"))
+        if condition.holding_days_above is not None or condition.holding_days_below is not None:
+            details["holding_days"] = self._safe_float(market_data.get("holding_days"))
 
         return details

tests/test_dashboard.py

@@ -296,3 +296,23 @@ def test_scenarios_active_empty_when_no_matches(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
     get_active_scenarios = _endpoint(app, "/api/scenarios/active")
     body = get_active_scenarios(market="US", date_str="2026-02-14", limit=50)
     assert body["count"] == 0
+
+
+def test_pnl_history_all_markets(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
+    app = _app(tmp_path)
+    get_pnl_history = _endpoint(app, "/api/pnl/history")
+    body = get_pnl_history(days=30, market="all")
+    assert body["market"] == "all"
+    assert isinstance(body["labels"], list)
+    assert isinstance(body["pnl"], list)
+    assert len(body["labels"]) == len(body["pnl"])
+
+
+def test_pnl_history_market_filter(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
+    app = _app(tmp_path)
+    get_pnl_history = _endpoint(app, "/api/pnl/history")
+    body = get_pnl_history(days=30, market="KR")
+    assert body["market"] == "KR"
+    # KR has 1 trade with pnl=2.0
+    assert len(body["labels"]) >= 1
+    assert body["pnl"][0] == 2.0

tests/test_pre_market_planner.py

@@ -830,3 +830,171 @@ class TestSmartFallbackPlaybook:
         ]
         assert len(buy_scenarios) == 1
         assert buy_scenarios[0].condition.volume_ratio_above == 2.0  # VOL_MULTIPLIER default
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Holdings in prompt (#170)
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+class TestHoldingsInPrompt:
+    """Tests for current_holdings parameter in generate_playbook / _build_prompt."""
+
+    def _make_holdings(self) -> list[dict]:
+        return [
+            {
+                "stock_code": "005930",
+                "name": "Samsung",
+                "qty": 10,
+                "entry_price": 71000.0,
+                "unrealized_pnl_pct": 2.3,
+                "holding_days": 3,
+            }
+        ]
+
+    def test_build_prompt_includes_holdings_section(self) -> None:
+        """Prompt should contain a Current Holdings section when holdings are given."""
+        planner = _make_planner()
+        candidates = [_candidate()]
+        holdings = self._make_holdings()
+
+        prompt = planner._build_prompt(
+            "KR",
+            candidates,
+            context_data={},
+            self_market_scorecard=None,
+            cross_market=None,
+            current_holdings=holdings,
+        )
+
+        assert "## Current Holdings" in prompt
+        assert "005930" in prompt
+        assert "+2.30%" in prompt
+        assert "보유 3일" in prompt
+
+    def test_build_prompt_no_holdings_omits_section(self) -> None:
+        """Prompt should NOT contain a Current Holdings section when holdings=None."""
+        planner = _make_planner()
+        candidates = [_candidate()]
+
+        prompt = planner._build_prompt(
+            "KR",
+            candidates,
+            context_data={},
+            self_market_scorecard=None,
+            cross_market=None,
+            current_holdings=None,
+        )
+
+        assert "## Current Holdings" not in prompt
+
+    def test_build_prompt_empty_holdings_omits_section(self) -> None:
+        """Empty list should also omit the holdings section."""
+        planner = _make_planner()
+        candidates = [_candidate()]
+
+        prompt = planner._build_prompt(
+            "KR",
+            candidates,
+            context_data={},
+            self_market_scorecard=None,
+            cross_market=None,
+            current_holdings=[],
+        )
+
+        assert "## Current Holdings" not in prompt
+
+    def test_build_prompt_holdings_instruction_included(self) -> None:
+        """Prompt should include instruction to generate scenarios for held stocks."""
+        planner = _make_planner()
+        candidates = [_candidate()]
+        holdings = self._make_holdings()
+
+        prompt = planner._build_prompt(
+            "KR",
+            candidates,
+            context_data={},
+            self_market_scorecard=None,
+            cross_market=None,
+            current_holdings=holdings,
+        )
+
+        assert "005930" in prompt
+        assert "SELL/HOLD" in prompt
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_generate_playbook_passes_holdings_to_prompt(self) -> None:
+        """generate_playbook should pass current_holdings through to the prompt."""
+        planner = _make_planner()
+        candidates = [_candidate()]
+        holdings = self._make_holdings()
+
+        # Capture the actual prompt sent to Gemini
+        captured_prompts: list[str] = []
+        original_decide = planner._gemini.decide
+
+        async def capture_and_call(data: dict) -> TradeDecision:
+            captured_prompts.append(data.get("prompt_override", ""))
+            return await original_decide(data)
+
+        planner._gemini.decide = capture_and_call  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+        await planner.generate_playbook(
+            "KR", candidates, today=date(2026, 2, 8), current_holdings=holdings
+        )
+
+        assert len(captured_prompts) == 1
+        assert "## Current Holdings" in captured_prompts[0]
+        assert "005930" in captured_prompts[0]
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_holdings_stock_allowed_in_parse_response(self) -> None:
+        """Holdings stocks not in candidates list should be accepted in the response."""
+        holding_code = "000660"  # Not in candidates
+        stocks = [
+            {
+                "stock_code": "005930",  # candidate
+                "scenarios": [
+                    {
+                        "condition": {"rsi_below": 30},
+                        "action": "BUY",
+                        "confidence": 85,
+                        "rationale": "oversold",
+                    }
+                ],
+            },
+            {
+                "stock_code": holding_code,  # holding only
+                "scenarios": [
+                    {
+                        "condition": {"price_change_pct_below": -2.0},
+                        "action": "SELL",
+                        "confidence": 90,
+                        "rationale": "stop-loss",
+                    }
+                ],
+            },
+        ]
+        planner = _make_planner(gemini_response=_gemini_response_json(stocks=stocks))
+        candidates = [_candidate()]  # only 005930
+        holdings = [
+            {
+                "stock_code": holding_code,
+                "name": "SK Hynix",
+                "qty": 5,
+                "entry_price": 180000.0,
+                "unrealized_pnl_pct": -1.5,
+                "holding_days": 7,
+            }
+        ]
+
+        pb = await planner.generate_playbook(
+            "KR",
+            candidates,
+            today=date(2026, 2, 8),
+            current_holdings=holdings,
+        )
+
+        codes = [sp.stock_code for sp in pb.stock_playbooks]
+        assert "005930" in codes
+        assert holding_code in codes

tests/test_scenario_engine.py

@@ -440,3 +440,135 @@ class TestEvaluate:
         assert result.action == ScenarioAction.BUY
         assert result.match_details["rsi"] == 25.0
         assert isinstance(result.match_details["rsi"], float)
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Position-aware condition tests (#171)
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+class TestPositionAwareConditions:
+    """Tests for unrealized_pnl_pct and holding_days condition fields."""
+
+    def test_evaluate_condition_unrealized_pnl_above_matches(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """unrealized_pnl_pct_above should match when P&L exceeds threshold."""
+        condition = StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"unrealized_pnl_pct": 5.0}) is True
+
+    def test_evaluate_condition_unrealized_pnl_above_no_match(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """unrealized_pnl_pct_above should NOT match when P&L is below threshold."""
+        condition = StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"unrealized_pnl_pct": 2.0}) is False
+
+    def test_evaluate_condition_unrealized_pnl_below_matches(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """unrealized_pnl_pct_below should match when P&L is under threshold."""
+        condition = StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_below=-2.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"unrealized_pnl_pct": -3.5}) is True
+
+    def test_evaluate_condition_unrealized_pnl_below_no_match(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """unrealized_pnl_pct_below should NOT match when P&L is above threshold."""
+        condition = StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_below=-2.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"unrealized_pnl_pct": -1.0}) is False
+
+    def test_evaluate_condition_holding_days_above_matches(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """holding_days_above should match when position held longer than threshold."""
+        condition = StockCondition(holding_days_above=5)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"holding_days": 7}) is True
+
+    def test_evaluate_condition_holding_days_above_no_match(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """holding_days_above should NOT match when position held shorter."""
+        condition = StockCondition(holding_days_above=5)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"holding_days": 3}) is False
+
+    def test_evaluate_condition_holding_days_below_matches(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """holding_days_below should match when position held fewer days."""
+        condition = StockCondition(holding_days_below=3)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"holding_days": 1}) is True
+
+    def test_evaluate_condition_holding_days_below_no_match(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """holding_days_below should NOT match when held more days."""
+        condition = StockCondition(holding_days_below=3)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"holding_days": 5}) is False
+
+    def test_combined_pnl_and_holding_days(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        """Combined position-aware conditions should AND-evaluate correctly."""
+        condition = StockCondition(
+            unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0,
+            holding_days_above=5,
+        )
+        # Both met → match
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(
+            condition,
+            {"unrealized_pnl_pct": 4.5, "holding_days": 7},
+        ) is True
+        # Only pnl met → no match
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(
+            condition,
+            {"unrealized_pnl_pct": 4.5, "holding_days": 3},
+        ) is False
+
+    def test_missing_unrealized_pnl_does_not_match(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """Missing unrealized_pnl_pct key should not match the condition."""
+        condition = StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {}) is False
+
+    def test_missing_holding_days_does_not_match(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """Missing holding_days key should not match the condition."""
+        condition = StockCondition(holding_days_above=5)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {}) is False
+
+    def test_match_details_includes_position_fields(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """match_details should include position fields when condition specifies them."""
+        pb = _playbook(
+            scenarios=[
+                StockScenario(
+                    condition=StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0),
+                    action=ScenarioAction.SELL,
+                    confidence=90,
+                    rationale="Take profit",
+                )
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.evaluate(
+            pb,
+            "005930",
+            {"unrealized_pnl_pct": 5.0},
+            {},
+        )
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.SELL
+        assert "unrealized_pnl_pct" in result.match_details
+        assert result.match_details["unrealized_pnl_pct"] == 5.0
+
+    def test_position_conditions_parse_from_planner(self) -> None:
+        """StockCondition should accept and store new fields from JSON parsing."""
+        condition = StockCondition(
+            unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0,
+            unrealized_pnl_pct_below=None,
+            holding_days_above=5,
+            holding_days_below=None,
+        )
+        assert condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_above == 3.0
+        assert condition.holding_days_above == 5
+        assert condition.has_any_condition() is True

tests/test_smart_scanner.py

@@ -350,6 +350,42 @@ class TestSmartVolatilityScanner:
         assert [c.stock_code for c in candidates] == ["ABCD"]
 
 
+class TestImpliedRSIFormula:
+    """Test the implied_rsi formula in SmartVolatilityScanner (issue #181)."""
+
+    def test_neutral_change_gives_neutral_rsi(self) -> None:
+        """0% change → implied_rsi = 50 (neutral)."""
+        # formula: 50 + (change_rate * 2.0)
+        rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (0.0 * 2.0)))
+        assert rsi == 50.0
+
+    def test_10pct_change_gives_rsi_70(self) -> None:
+        """10% upward change → implied_rsi = 70 (momentum signal)."""
+        rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (10.0 * 2.0)))
+        assert rsi == 70.0
+
+    def test_minus_10pct_gives_rsi_30(self) -> None:
+        """-10% change → implied_rsi = 30 (oversold signal)."""
+        rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (-10.0 * 2.0)))
+        assert rsi == 30.0
+
+    def test_saturation_at_25pct(self) -> None:
+        """Saturation occurs at >=25% change (not 12.5% as with old coefficient 4.0)."""
+        rsi_12pct = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (12.5 * 2.0)))
+        rsi_25pct = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (25.0 * 2.0)))
+        rsi_30pct = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (30.0 * 2.0)))
+        # At 12.5% change: RSI = 75 (not 100, unlike old formula)
+        assert rsi_12pct == 75.0
+        # At 25%+ saturation
+        assert rsi_25pct == 100.0
+        assert rsi_30pct == 100.0  # Capped
+
+    def test_negative_saturation(self) -> None:
+        """Saturation at -25% gives RSI = 0."""
+        rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (-25.0 * 2.0)))
+        assert rsi == 0.0
+
+
 class TestRSICalculation:
     """Test RSI calculation in VolatilityAnalyzer."""
 

tests/test_telegram.py

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ from unittest.mock import AsyncMock, patch
 import aiohttp
 import pytest
 
-from src.notifications.telegram_client import NotificationPriority, TelegramClient
+from src.notifications.telegram_client import NotificationFilter, NotificationPriority, TelegramClient
 
 
 class TestTelegramClientInit:
@@ -481,3 +481,187 @@ class TestClientCleanup:
 
         # Should not raise exception
         await client.close()
+
+
+class TestNotificationFilter:
+    """Test granular notification filter behavior."""
+
+    def test_default_filter_allows_all(self) -> None:
+        """Default NotificationFilter has all flags enabled."""
+        f = NotificationFilter()
+        assert f.trades is True
+        assert f.market_open_close is True
+        assert f.fat_finger is True
+        assert f.system_events is True
+        assert f.playbook is True
+        assert f.scenario_match is True
+        assert f.errors is True
+
+    def test_client_uses_default_filter_when_none_given(self) -> None:
+        """TelegramClient creates a default NotificationFilter when none provided."""
+        client = TelegramClient(bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True)
+        assert isinstance(client._filter, NotificationFilter)
+        assert client._filter.scenario_match is True
+
+    def test_client_stores_provided_filter(self) -> None:
+        """TelegramClient stores a custom NotificationFilter."""
+        nf = NotificationFilter(scenario_match=False, trades=False)
+        client = TelegramClient(
+            bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True, notification_filter=nf
+        )
+        assert client._filter.scenario_match is False
+        assert client._filter.trades is False
+        assert client._filter.market_open_close is True  # default still True
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_scenario_match_filtered_does_not_send(self) -> None:
+        """notify_scenario_matched skips send when scenario_match=False."""
+        nf = NotificationFilter(scenario_match=False)
+        client = TelegramClient(
+            bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True, notification_filter=nf
+        )
+        with patch("aiohttp.ClientSession.post") as mock_post:
+            await client.notify_scenario_matched(
+                stock_code="005930", action="BUY", condition_summary="rsi<30", confidence=85.0
+            )
+            mock_post.assert_not_called()
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_trades_filtered_does_not_send(self) -> None:
+        """notify_trade_execution skips send when trades=False."""
+        nf = NotificationFilter(trades=False)
+        client = TelegramClient(
+            bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True, notification_filter=nf
+        )
+        with patch("aiohttp.ClientSession.post") as mock_post:
+            await client.notify_trade_execution(
+                stock_code="005930", market="KR", action="BUY",
+                quantity=10, price=70000.0, confidence=85.0
+            )
+            mock_post.assert_not_called()
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_market_open_close_filtered_does_not_send(self) -> None:
+        """notify_market_open/close skip send when market_open_close=False."""
+        nf = NotificationFilter(market_open_close=False)
+        client = TelegramClient(
+            bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True, notification_filter=nf
+        )
+        with patch("aiohttp.ClientSession.post") as mock_post:
+            await client.notify_market_open("Korea")
+            await client.notify_market_close("Korea", pnl_pct=1.5)
+            mock_post.assert_not_called()
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_circuit_breaker_always_sends_regardless_of_filter(self) -> None:
+        """notify_circuit_breaker always sends (no filter flag)."""
+        nf = NotificationFilter(
+            trades=False, market_open_close=False, fat_finger=False,
+            system_events=False, playbook=False, scenario_match=False, errors=False,
+        )
+        client = TelegramClient(
+            bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True, notification_filter=nf
+        )
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        with patch("aiohttp.ClientSession.post", return_value=mock_resp) as mock_post:
+            await client.notify_circuit_breaker(pnl_pct=-3.5, threshold=-3.0)
+            assert mock_post.call_count == 1
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_errors_filtered_does_not_send(self) -> None:
+        """notify_error skips send when errors=False."""
+        nf = NotificationFilter(errors=False)
+        client = TelegramClient(
+            bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True, notification_filter=nf
+        )
+        with patch("aiohttp.ClientSession.post") as mock_post:
+            await client.notify_error("TestError", "something went wrong", "KR")
+            mock_post.assert_not_called()
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_playbook_filtered_does_not_send(self) -> None:
+        """notify_playbook_generated/failed skip send when playbook=False."""
+        nf = NotificationFilter(playbook=False)
+        client = TelegramClient(
+            bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True, notification_filter=nf
+        )
+        with patch("aiohttp.ClientSession.post") as mock_post:
+            await client.notify_playbook_generated("KR", 3, 10, 1200)
+            await client.notify_playbook_failed("KR", "timeout")
+            mock_post.assert_not_called()
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_system_events_filtered_does_not_send(self) -> None:
+        """notify_system_start/shutdown skip send when system_events=False."""
+        nf = NotificationFilter(system_events=False)
+        client = TelegramClient(
+            bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True, notification_filter=nf
+        )
+        with patch("aiohttp.ClientSession.post") as mock_post:
+            await client.notify_system_start("paper", ["KR"])
+            await client.notify_system_shutdown("Normal shutdown")
+            mock_post.assert_not_called()
+
+    def test_set_flag_valid_key(self) -> None:
+        """set_flag returns True and updates field for a known key."""
+        nf = NotificationFilter()
+        assert nf.set_flag("scenario", False) is True
+        assert nf.scenario_match is False
+
+    def test_set_flag_invalid_key(self) -> None:
+        """set_flag returns False for an unknown key."""
+        nf = NotificationFilter()
+        assert nf.set_flag("unknown_key", False) is False
+
+    def test_as_dict_keys_match_KEYS(self) -> None:
+        """as_dict() returns every key defined in KEYS."""
+        nf = NotificationFilter()
+        d = nf.as_dict()
+        assert set(d.keys()) == set(NotificationFilter.KEYS.keys())
+
+    def test_set_notification_valid_key(self) -> None:
+        """TelegramClient.set_notification toggles filter at runtime."""
+        client = TelegramClient(bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True)
+        assert client._filter.scenario_match is True
+        assert client.set_notification("scenario", False) is True
+        assert client._filter.scenario_match is False
+
+    def test_set_notification_all_off(self) -> None:
+        """set_notification('all', False) disables every filter flag."""
+        client = TelegramClient(bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True)
+        assert client.set_notification("all", False) is True
+        for v in client.filter_status().values():
+            assert v is False
+
+    def test_set_notification_all_on(self) -> None:
+        """set_notification('all', True) enables every filter flag."""
+        client = TelegramClient(
+            bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True,
+            notification_filter=NotificationFilter(
+                trades=False, market_open_close=False, scenario_match=False,
+                fat_finger=False, system_events=False, playbook=False, errors=False,
+            ),
+        )
+        assert client.set_notification("all", True) is True
+        for v in client.filter_status().values():
+            assert v is True
+
+    def test_set_notification_unknown_key(self) -> None:
+        """set_notification returns False for an unknown key."""
+        client = TelegramClient(bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True)
+        assert client.set_notification("unknown", False) is False
+
+    def test_filter_status_reflects_current_state(self) -> None:
+        """filter_status() matches the current NotificationFilter state."""
+        nf = NotificationFilter(trades=False, scenario_match=False)
+        client = TelegramClient(
+            bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True, notification_filter=nf
+        )
+        status = client.filter_status()
+        assert status["trades"] is False
+        assert status["scenario"] is False
+        assert status["market"] is True

tests/test_telegram_commands.py

@@ -875,3 +875,139 @@ class TestGetUpdates:
             updates = await handler._get_updates()
 
             assert updates == []
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_get_updates_409_stops_polling(self) -> None:
+        """409 Conflict response stops the poller (_running = False) and returns empty list."""
+        client = TelegramClient(bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True)
+        handler = TelegramCommandHandler(client)
+        handler._running = True  # simulate active poller
+
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 409
+        mock_resp.text = AsyncMock(
+            return_value='{"ok":false,"error_code":409,"description":"Conflict"}'
+        )
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        with patch("aiohttp.ClientSession.post", return_value=mock_resp):
+            updates = await handler._get_updates()
+
+        assert updates == []
+        assert handler._running is False  # poller stopped
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_poll_loop_exits_after_409(self) -> None:
+        """_poll_loop exits naturally after _running is set to False by a 409 response."""
+        import asyncio as _asyncio
+
+        client = TelegramClient(bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True)
+        handler = TelegramCommandHandler(client)
+
+        call_count = 0
+
+        async def mock_get_updates_409() -> list[dict]:
+            nonlocal call_count
+            call_count += 1
+            # Simulate 409 stopping the poller
+            handler._running = False
+            return []
+
+        handler._get_updates = mock_get_updates_409  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+        handler._running = True
+        task = _asyncio.create_task(handler._poll_loop())
+        await _asyncio.wait_for(task, timeout=2.0)
+
+        # _get_updates called exactly once, then loop exited
+        assert call_count == 1
+        assert handler._running is False
+
+
+class TestCommandWithArgs:
+    """Test register_command_with_args and argument dispatch."""
+
+    def test_register_command_with_args_stored(self) -> None:
+        """register_command_with_args stores handler in _commands_with_args."""
+        client = TelegramClient(bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True)
+        handler = TelegramCommandHandler(client)
+
+        async def my_handler(args: list[str]) -> None:
+            pass
+
+        handler.register_command_with_args("notify", my_handler)
+        assert "notify" in handler._commands_with_args
+        assert handler._commands_with_args["notify"] is my_handler
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_args_handler_receives_arguments(self) -> None:
+        """Args handler is called with the trailing tokens."""
+        client = TelegramClient(bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True)
+        handler = TelegramCommandHandler(client)
+
+        received: list[list[str]] = []
+
+        async def capture(args: list[str]) -> None:
+            received.append(args)
+
+        handler.register_command_with_args("notify", capture)
+
+        update = {
+            "message": {
+                "chat": {"id": "456"},
+                "text": "/notify scenario off",
+            }
+        }
+        await handler._handle_update(update)
+        assert received == [["scenario", "off"]]
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_args_handler_takes_priority_over_no_args_handler(self) -> None:
+        """When both handlers exist for same command, args handler wins."""
+        client = TelegramClient(bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True)
+        handler = TelegramCommandHandler(client)
+
+        no_args_called = []
+        args_called = []
+
+        async def no_args_handler() -> None:
+            no_args_called.append(True)
+
+        async def args_handler(args: list[str]) -> None:
+            args_called.append(args)
+
+        handler.register_command("notify", no_args_handler)
+        handler.register_command_with_args("notify", args_handler)
+
+        update = {
+            "message": {
+                "chat": {"id": "456"},
+                "text": "/notify all off",
+            }
+        }
+        await handler._handle_update(update)
+        assert args_called == [["all", "off"]]
+        assert no_args_called == []
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_args_handler_with_no_trailing_args(self) -> None:
+        """/notify with no args still dispatches to args handler with empty list."""
+        client = TelegramClient(bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True)
+        handler = TelegramCommandHandler(client)
+
+        received: list[list[str]] = []
+
+        async def capture(args: list[str]) -> None:
+            received.append(args)
+
+        handler.register_command_with_args("notify", capture)
+
+        update = {
+            "message": {
+                "chat": {"id": "456"},
+                "text": "/notify",
+            }
+        }
+        await handler._handle_update(update)
+        assert received == [[]]