fix: BULLISH confidence 임계값 75로 복원 (#205)

CLAUDE.md 규칙 개정에 따라 BULLISH 시장은 75로 유지.
시장 전망별 임계값: BEARISH=90, NEUTRAL=80, BULLISH=75.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

docs/commands.md

@@ -192,6 +192,27 @@ When `TELEGRAM_COMMANDS_ENABLED=true` (default), the bot accepts these interacti
 
 Commands are only processed from the authorized `TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID`.
 
+## KIS API TR_ID 참조 문서
+
+**TR_ID를 추가하거나 수정할 때 반드시 공식 문서를 먼저 확인할 것.**
+
+공식 문서: `docs/한국투자증권_오픈API_전체문서_20260221_030000.xlsx`
+
+> ⚠️ 커뮤니티 블로그, GitHub 예제 등 비공식 자료의 TR_ID는 오래되거나 틀릴 수 있음.
+> 실제로 `VTTT1006U`(미국 매도 — 잘못됨)가 오랫동안 코드에 남아있던 사례가 있음 (Issue #189).
+
+### 주요 TR_ID 목록
+
+| 구분 | 모의투자 TR_ID | 실전투자 TR_ID | 시트명 |
+|------|---------------|---------------|--------|
+| 해외주식 매수 (미국) | `VTTT1002U` | `TTTT1002U` | 해외주식 주문 |
+| 해외주식 매도 (미국) | `VTTT1001U` | `TTTT1006U` | 해외주식 주문 |
+
+새로운 TR_ID가 필요할 때:
+1. 위 xlsx 파일에서 해당 거래 유형의 시트를 찾는다.
+2. 모의투자(`VTTT`) / 실전투자(`TTTT`) 컬럼을 구분하여 정확한 값을 사용한다.
+3. 코드에 출처 주석을 남긴다: `# Source: 한국투자증권_오픈API_전체문서 — '<시트명>' 시트`
+
 ## Environment Setup
 
 ```bash

docs/requirements-log.md

@@ -7,6 +7,32 @@
 
 ---
 
+## 2026-02-21
+
+### 거래 상태 확인 중 발견된 버그 (#187)
+
+- 거래 상태 점검 요청 → SELL 주문(손절/익절)이 Fat Finger에 막혀 전혀 실행 안 됨 발견
+- **#187 (Critical)**: SELL 주문에서 Fat Finger 오탐 — `order_amount/total_cash > 30%`가 SELL에도 적용되어 대형 포지션 매도 불가
+  - JELD stop-loss -6.20% → 차단, RXT take-profit +46.13% → 차단
+  - 수정: SELL은 `check_circuit_breaker`만 호출, `validate_order`(Fat Finger 포함) 미호출
+
+---
+
+## 2026-02-20
+
+### 지속적 모니터링 및 개선점 도출 (이슈 #178~#182)
+
+- Dashboard 포함해서 실행하며 간헐적 문제 모니터링 및 개선점 자동 도출 요청
+- 모니터링 결과 발견된 이슈 목록:
+  - **#178**: uvicorn 미설치 → dashboard 미작동 + 오해의 소지 있는 시작 로그 → uvicorn 설치 완료
+  - **#179 (Critical)**: 잔액 부족 주문 실패 후 매 사이클마다 무한 재시도 (MLECW 20분 이상 반복)
+  - **#180**: 다중 인스턴스 실행 시 Telegram 409 충돌
+  - **#181**: implied_rsi 공식 포화 문제 (change_rate≥12.5% → RSI=100)
+  - **#182 (Critical)**: 보유 종목이 SmartScanner 변동성 필터에 걸려 SELL 신호 미생성 → SELL 체결 0건, 잔고 소진
+- 요구사항: 모니터링 자동화 및 주기적 개선점 리포트 도출
+
+---
+
 ## 2026-02-05
 
 ### API 효율화

src/analysis/smart_scanner.py

@@ -175,7 +175,7 @@ class SmartVolatilityScanner:
                 liquidity_score = volume_rank_bonus.get(stock_code, 0.0)
                 score = min(100.0, volatility_score + liquidity_score)
                 signal = "momentum" if change_rate >= 0 else "oversold"
-                implied_rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (change_rate * 4.0)))
+                implied_rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (change_rate * 2.0)))
 
                 candidates.append(
                     ScanCandidate(
@@ -282,7 +282,7 @@ class SmartVolatilityScanner:
             liquidity_score = volume_rank_bonus.get(stock_code, 0.0)
             score = min(100.0, volatility_score + liquidity_score)
             signal = "momentum" if change_rate >= 0 else "oversold"
-            implied_rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (change_rate * 4.0)))
+            implied_rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (change_rate * 2.0)))
             candidates.append(
                 ScanCandidate(
                     stock_code=stock_code,
@@ -338,7 +338,7 @@ class SmartVolatilityScanner:
 
                 score = min(volatility_pct / 10.0, 1.0) * 100.0
                 signal = "momentum" if change_rate >= 0 else "oversold"
-                implied_rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (change_rate * 4.0)))
+                implied_rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (change_rate * 2.0)))
                 candidates.append(
                     ScanCandidate(
                         stock_code=stock_code,

src/broker/kis_api.py

@@ -285,7 +285,10 @@ class KISBroker:
         await self._rate_limiter.acquire()
         session = self._get_session()
 
-        headers = await self._auth_headers("VTTC8434R")  # 모의투자 잔고조회
+        # TR_ID: 실전 TTTC8434R, 모의 VTTC8434R
+        # Source: 한국투자증권 오픈API 전체문서 (20260221) — '국내주식 잔고조회' 시트
+        tr_id = "TTTC8434R" if self._settings.MODE == "live" else "VTTC8434R"
+        headers = await self._auth_headers(tr_id)
         params = {
             "CANO": self._account_no,
             "ACNT_PRDT_CD": self._product_cd,
@@ -330,7 +333,13 @@ class KISBroker:
         await self._rate_limiter.acquire()
         session = self._get_session()
 
-        tr_id = "VTTC0802U" if order_type == "BUY" else "VTTC0801U"
+        # TR_ID: 실전 BUY=TTTC0012U SELL=TTTC0011U, 모의 BUY=VTTC0012U SELL=VTTC0011U
+        # Source: 한국투자증권 오픈API 전체문서 (20260221) — '주식주문(현금)' 시트
+        # ※ TTTC0802U/VTTC0802U는 미수매수(증거금40% 계좌 전용) — 현금주문에 사용 금지
+        if self._settings.MODE == "live":
+            tr_id = "TTTC0012U" if order_type == "BUY" else "TTTC0011U"
+        else:
+            tr_id = "VTTC0012U" if order_type == "BUY" else "VTTC0011U"
 
         # KRX requires limit orders to be rounded down to the tick unit.
         # ORD_DVSN: "00"=지정가, "01"=시장가

src/broker/overseas.py

@@ -175,8 +175,12 @@ class OverseasBroker:
         await self._broker._rate_limiter.acquire()
         session = self._broker._get_session()
 
-        # Virtual trading TR_ID for overseas balance inquiry
+        # TR_ID: 실전 TTTS3012R, 모의 VTTS3012R
-        headers = await self._broker._auth_headers("VTTS3012R")
+        # Source: 한국투자증권 오픈API 전체문서 (20260221) — '해외주식 잔고조회' 시트
+        balance_tr_id = (
+            "TTTS3012R" if self._broker._settings.MODE == "live" else "VTTS3012R"
+        )
+        headers = await self._broker._auth_headers(balance_tr_id)
         params = {
             "CANO": self._broker._account_no,
             "ACNT_PRDT_CD": self._broker._product_cd,
@@ -229,8 +233,12 @@ class OverseasBroker:
         await self._broker._rate_limiter.acquire()
         session = self._broker._get_session()
 
-        # Virtual trading TR_IDs for overseas orders
+        # TR_ID: 실전 BUY=TTTT1002U SELL=TTTT1006U, 모의 BUY=VTTT1002U SELL=VTTT1001U
-        tr_id = "VTTT1002U" if order_type == "BUY" else "VTTT1006U"
+        # Source: 한국투자증권 오픈API 전체문서 (20260221) — '해외주식 주문' 시트
+        if self._broker._settings.MODE == "live":
+            tr_id = "TTTT1002U" if order_type == "BUY" else "TTTT1006U"
+        else:
+            tr_id = "VTTT1002U" if order_type == "BUY" else "VTTT1001U"
 
         body = {
             "CANO": self._broker._account_no,

src/config.py

@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ class Settings(BaseSettings):
     KIS_APP_KEY: str
     KIS_APP_SECRET: str
     KIS_ACCOUNT_NO: str  # format: "XXXXXXXX-XX"
-    KIS_BASE_URL: str = "https://openapivts.koreainvestment.com:9443"
+    KIS_BASE_URL: str = "https://openapivts.koreainvestment.com:29443"
 
     # Google Gemini
     GEMINI_API_KEY: str

src/dashboard/app.py

@@ -3,8 +3,9 @@
 from __future__ import annotations
 
 import json
+import os
 import sqlite3
-from datetime import UTC, datetime
+from datetime import UTC, datetime, timezone
 from pathlib import Path
 from typing import Any
 
@@ -79,6 +80,35 @@ def create_dashboard_app(db_path: str) -> FastAPI:
                 total_pnl += market_status[market]["total_pnl"]
                 total_decisions += market_status[market]["decision_count"]
 
+            cb_threshold = float(os.getenv("CIRCUIT_BREAKER_PCT", "-3.0"))
+            pnl_pct_rows = conn.execute(
+                """
+                SELECT key, value
+                FROM system_metrics
+                WHERE key LIKE 'portfolio_pnl_pct_%'
+                ORDER BY updated_at DESC
+                LIMIT 20
+                """
+            ).fetchall()
+            current_pnl_pct: float | None = None
+            if pnl_pct_rows:
+                values = [
+                    json.loads(row["value"]).get("pnl_pct")
+                    for row in pnl_pct_rows
+                    if json.loads(row["value"]).get("pnl_pct") is not None
+                ]
+                if values:
+                    current_pnl_pct = round(min(values), 4)
+
+            if current_pnl_pct is None:
+                cb_status = "unknown"
+            elif current_pnl_pct <= cb_threshold:
+                cb_status = "tripped"
+            elif current_pnl_pct <= cb_threshold + 1.0:
+                cb_status = "warning"
+            else:
+                cb_status = "ok"
+
             return {
                 "date": today,
                 "markets": market_status,
@@ -87,6 +117,11 @@ def create_dashboard_app(db_path: str) -> FastAPI:
                     "total_pnl": round(total_pnl, 2),
                     "decision_count": total_decisions,
                 },
+                "circuit_breaker": {
+                    "threshold_pct": cb_threshold,
+                    "current_pnl_pct": current_pnl_pct,
+                    "status": cb_status,
+                },
             }
 
     @app.get("/api/playbook/{date_str}")
@@ -341,12 +376,68 @@ def create_dashboard_app(db_path: str) -> FastAPI:
                 )
             return {"market": market, "date": date_str, "count": len(matches), "matches": matches}
 
+    @app.get("/api/positions")
+    def get_positions() -> dict[str, Any]:
+        """Return all currently open positions (last trade per symbol is BUY)."""
+        with _connect(db_path) as conn:
+            rows = conn.execute(
+                """
+                SELECT stock_code, market, exchange_code,
+                       price AS entry_price, quantity, timestamp AS entry_time,
+                       decision_id
+                FROM (
+                    SELECT stock_code, market, exchange_code, price, quantity,
+                           timestamp, decision_id, action,
+                           ROW_NUMBER() OVER (
+                               PARTITION BY stock_code, market
+                               ORDER BY timestamp DESC
+                           ) AS rn
+                    FROM trades
+                )
+                WHERE rn = 1 AND action = 'BUY'
+                ORDER BY entry_time DESC
+                """
+            ).fetchall()
+
+            now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+            positions = []
+            for row in rows:
+                entry_time_str = row["entry_time"]
+                try:
+                    entry_dt = datetime.fromisoformat(entry_time_str.replace("Z", "+00:00"))
+                    held_seconds = int((now - entry_dt).total_seconds())
+                    held_hours = held_seconds // 3600
+                    held_minutes = (held_seconds % 3600) // 60
+                    if held_hours >= 1:
+                        held_display = f"{held_hours}h {held_minutes}m"
+                    else:
+                        held_display = f"{held_minutes}m"
+                except (ValueError, TypeError):
+                    held_display = "--"
+
+                positions.append(
+                    {
+                        "stock_code": row["stock_code"],
+                        "market": row["market"],
+                        "exchange_code": row["exchange_code"],
+                        "entry_price": row["entry_price"],
+                        "quantity": row["quantity"],
+                        "entry_time": entry_time_str,
+                        "held": held_display,
+                        "decision_id": row["decision_id"],
+                    }
+                )
+
+            return {"count": len(positions), "positions": positions}
+
     return app
 
 
 def _connect(db_path: str) -> sqlite3.Connection:
     conn = sqlite3.connect(db_path)
     conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row
+    conn.execute("PRAGMA journal_mode=WAL")
+    conn.execute("PRAGMA busy_timeout=8000")
     return conn
 
 

src/dashboard/static/index.html

@@ -13,6 +13,7 @@
         --muted: #9fb3c8;
         --accent: #3cb371;
         --red: #e05555;
+        --warn: #e8a040;
         --border: #28455f;
       }
       * { box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0; padding: 0; }
@@ -43,6 +44,25 @@
       }
       .refresh-btn:hover { border-color: var(--accent); color: var(--accent); }
 
+      /* CB Gauge */
+      .cb-gauge-wrap {
+        display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 8px;
+        font-size: 11px; color: var(--muted);
+      }
+      .cb-dot {
+        width: 8px; height: 8px; border-radius: 50%; flex-shrink: 0;
+      }
+      .cb-dot.ok      { background: var(--accent); }
+      .cb-dot.warning { background: var(--warn); animation: pulse-warn 1.2s ease-in-out infinite; }
+      .cb-dot.tripped { background: var(--red);  animation: pulse-warn 0.6s ease-in-out infinite; }
+      .cb-dot.unknown { background: var(--border); }
+      @keyframes pulse-warn {
+        0%, 100% { opacity: 1; }
+        50%       { opacity: 0.35; }
+      }
+      .cb-bar-wrap { width: 64px; height: 5px; background: rgba(255,255,255,0.08); border-radius: 3px; overflow: hidden; }
+      .cb-bar-fill { height: 100%; border-radius: 3px; transition: width 0.4s, background 0.4s; }
+
       /* Summary cards */
       .cards { display: grid; grid-template-columns: repeat(4, 1fr); gap: 12px; margin-bottom: 20px; }
       @media (max-width: 700px) { .cards { grid-template-columns: repeat(2, 1fr); } }
@@ -123,9 +143,80 @@
       .rationale-cell { max-width: 200px; overflow: hidden; text-overflow: ellipsis; color: var(--muted); }
       .empty-row td { text-align: center; color: var(--muted); padding: 24px; }
 
+      /* Positions panel */
+      .positions-panel {
+        background: var(--panel);
+        border: 1px solid var(--border);
+        border-radius: 10px;
+        padding: 16px;
+        margin-bottom: 20px;
+      }
+      .positions-table { width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse; margin-top: 14px; }
+      .positions-table th {
+        text-align: left; color: var(--muted); font-size: 11px; font-weight: 600;
+        padding: 6px 8px; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border); white-space: nowrap;
+      }
+      .positions-table td {
+        padding: 8px 8px; border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(40, 69, 95, 0.5);
+        vertical-align: middle; white-space: nowrap;
+      }
+      .positions-table tr:last-child td { border-bottom: none; }
+      .positions-table tr:hover td { background: rgba(255,255,255,0.02); }
+      .pos-empty { color: var(--muted); text-align: center; padding: 20px 0; font-size: 12px; }
+      .pos-count {
+        display: inline-block; background: rgba(60, 179, 113, 0.12);
+        color: var(--accent); font-size: 11px; font-weight: 700;
+        padding: 2px 8px; border-radius: 10px; margin-left: 8px;
+      }
+
       /* Spinner */
       .spinner { display: inline-block; width: 12px; height: 12px; border: 2px solid var(--border); border-top-color: var(--accent); border-radius: 50%; animation: spin 0.8s linear infinite; }
       @keyframes spin { to { transform: rotate(360deg); } }
+
+      /* Generic panel */
+      .panel {
+        background: var(--panel);
+        border: 1px solid var(--border);
+        border-radius: 10px;
+        padding: 16px;
+        margin-top: 20px;
+      }
+
+      /* Playbook panel - details/summary accordion */
+      .playbook-panel details { border: 1px solid var(--border); border-radius: 4px; margin-bottom: 6px; }
+      .playbook-panel summary { padding: 8px 12px; cursor: pointer; font-weight: 600; background: var(--bg); color: var(--fg); }
+      .playbook-panel summary:hover { color: var(--accent); }
+      .playbook-panel pre { margin: 0; padding: 12px; background: var(--bg); overflow-x: auto;
+                            font-size: 11px; color: #a0c4ff; white-space: pre-wrap; }
+
+      /* Scorecard KPI card grid */
+      .scorecard-grid { display: grid; grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fill, minmax(140px, 1fr)); gap: 10px; }
+      .kpi-card { background: var(--bg); border: 1px solid var(--border); border-radius: 6px; padding: 12px; text-align: center; }
+      .kpi-card .kpi-label { font-size: 11px; color: var(--muted); margin-bottom: 4px; }
+      .kpi-card .kpi-value { font-size: 20px; font-weight: 700; color: var(--fg); }
+
+      /* Scenarios table */
+      .scenarios-table { width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse; font-size: 13px; }
+      .scenarios-table th { background: var(--bg); padding: 8px; text-align: left; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border);
+                            color: var(--muted); font-size: 11px; font-weight: 600; white-space: nowrap; }
+      .scenarios-table td { padding: 7px 8px; border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(40,69,95,0.5); }
+      .scenarios-table tr:hover td { background: rgba(255,255,255,0.02); }
+
+      /* Context table */
+      .context-table { width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse; font-size: 12px; }
+      .context-table th { background: var(--bg); padding: 8px; text-align: left; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border);
+                          color: var(--muted); font-size: 11px; font-weight: 600; white-space: nowrap; }
+      .context-table td { padding: 6px 8px; border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(40,69,95,0.5); vertical-align: top; }
+      .context-value { max-height: 60px; overflow-y: auto; color: #a0c4ff; word-break: break-all; }
+
+      /* Common panel select controls */
+      .panel-controls { display: flex; gap: 8px; align-items: center; flex-wrap: wrap; }
+      .panel-controls select, .panel-controls input[type="number"] {
+        background: var(--bg); color: var(--fg); border: 1px solid var(--border);
+        border-radius: 4px; padding: 4px 8px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit;
+      }
+      .panel-date { color: var(--muted); font-size: 12px; }
+      .empty-msg { color: var(--muted); text-align: center; padding: 20px 0; font-size: 12px; }
     </style>
   </head>
   <body>
@@ -134,6 +225,13 @@
       <header>
         <h1>&#x1F40D; The Ouroboros</h1>
         <div class="header-right">
+          <div class="cb-gauge-wrap" id="cb-gauge" title="Circuit Breaker">
+            <span class="cb-dot unknown" id="cb-dot"></span>
+            <span id="cb-label">CB --</span>
+            <div class="cb-bar-wrap">
+              <div class="cb-bar-fill" id="cb-bar" style="width:0%;background:var(--accent)"></div>
+            </div>
+          </div>
           <span id="last-updated">--</span>
           <button class="refresh-btn" onclick="refreshAll()">&#x21BA; 새로고침</button>
         </div>
@@ -163,6 +261,30 @@
         </div>
       </div>
 
+      <!-- Open Positions -->
+      <div class="positions-panel">
+        <div class="panel-header">
+          <span class="panel-title">
+            현재 보유 포지션
+            <span class="pos-count" id="positions-count">0</span>
+          </span>
+        </div>
+        <table class="positions-table">
+          <thead>
+            <tr>
+              <th>종목</th>
+              <th>시장</th>
+              <th>수량</th>
+              <th>진입가</th>
+              <th>보유 시간</th>
+            </tr>
+          </thead>
+          <tbody id="positions-body">
+            <tr><td colspan="5" class="pos-empty"><span class="spinner"></span></td></tr>
+          </tbody>
+        </table>
+      </div>
+
       <!-- P&L Chart -->
       <div class="chart-panel">
         <div class="panel-header">
@@ -206,6 +328,72 @@
           </tbody>
         </table>
       </div>
+
+      <!-- playbook panel -->
+      <div class="panel playbook-panel">
+        <div class="panel-header">
+          <span class="panel-title">&#x1F4CB; 프리마켓 플레이북</span>
+          <div class="panel-controls">
+            <select id="pb-market-select" onchange="fetchPlaybook()">
+              <option value="KR">KR</option>
+              <option value="US_NASDAQ">US_NASDAQ</option>
+              <option value="US_NYSE">US_NYSE</option>
+            </select>
+            <span id="pb-date" class="panel-date"></span>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+        <div id="playbook-content"><p class="empty-msg">데이터 없음</p></div>
+      </div>
+
+      <!-- scorecard panel -->
+      <div class="panel">
+        <div class="panel-header">
+          <span class="panel-title">&#x1F4CA; 일간 스코어카드</span>
+          <div class="panel-controls">
+            <select id="sc-market-select" onchange="fetchScorecard()">
+              <option value="KR">KR</option>
+              <option value="US_NASDAQ">US_NASDAQ</option>
+            </select>
+            <span id="sc-date" class="panel-date"></span>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+        <div id="scorecard-grid" class="scorecard-grid"><p class="empty-msg">데이터 없음</p></div>
+      </div>
+
+      <!-- scenarios panel -->
+      <div class="panel">
+        <div class="panel-header">
+          <span class="panel-title">&#x1F3AF; 활성 시나리오 매칭</span>
+          <div class="panel-controls">
+            <select id="scen-market-select" onchange="fetchScenarios()">
+              <option value="KR">KR</option>
+              <option value="US_NASDAQ">US_NASDAQ</option>
+            </select>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+        <div id="scenarios-content"><p class="empty-msg">데이터 없음</p></div>
+      </div>
+
+      <!-- context layer panel -->
+      <div class="panel">
+        <div class="panel-header">
+          <span class="panel-title">&#x1F9E0; 컨텍스트 트리</span>
+          <div class="panel-controls">
+            <select id="ctx-layer-select" onchange="fetchContext()">
+              <option value="L7_REALTIME">L7_REALTIME</option>
+              <option value="L6_DAILY">L6_DAILY</option>
+              <option value="L5_WEEKLY">L5_WEEKLY</option>
+              <option value="L4_MONTHLY">L4_MONTHLY</option>
+              <option value="L3_QUARTERLY">L3_QUARTERLY</option>
+              <option value="L2_YEARLY">L2_YEARLY</option>
+              <option value="L1_LIFETIME">L1_LIFETIME</option>
+            </select>
+            <input id="ctx-limit" type="number" value="20" min="1" max="200"
+                   style="width:60px;" onchange="fetchContext()">
+          </div>
+        </div>
+        <div id="context-content"><p class="empty-msg">데이터 없음</p></div>
+      </div>
     </div>
 
     <script>
@@ -242,6 +430,71 @@
         </div>`;
       }
 
+      function fmtPrice(v, market) {
+        if (v === null || v === undefined) return '--';
+        const n = parseFloat(v);
+        const sym = market === 'KR' ? '₩' : market === 'JP' ? '¥' : market === 'HK' ? 'HK$' : '$';
+        return sym + n.toLocaleString('en-US', { minimumFractionDigits: 0, maximumFractionDigits: 4 });
+      }
+
+      async function fetchPositions() {
+        const tbody = document.getElementById('positions-body');
+        const countEl = document.getElementById('positions-count');
+        try {
+          const r = await fetch('/api/positions');
+          if (!r.ok) throw new Error('fetch failed');
+          const d = await r.json();
+          countEl.textContent = d.count ?? 0;
+          if (!d.positions || d.positions.length === 0) {
+            tbody.innerHTML = '<tr><td colspan="5" class="pos-empty">현재 보유 중인 포지션 없음</td></tr>';
+            return;
+          }
+          tbody.innerHTML = d.positions.map(p => `
+            <tr>
+              <td><strong>${p.stock_code || '--'}</strong></td>
+              <td><span style="color:var(--muted);font-size:11px">${p.market || '--'}</span></td>
+              <td>${p.quantity ?? '--'}</td>
+              <td>${fmtPrice(p.entry_price, p.market)}</td>
+              <td style="color:var(--muted);font-size:11px">${p.held || '--'}</td>
+            </tr>
+          `).join('');
+        } catch {
+          tbody.innerHTML = '<tr><td colspan="5" class="pos-empty">데이터 로드 실패</td></tr>';
+        }
+      }
+
+      function renderCbGauge(cb) {
+        if (!cb) return;
+        const dot = document.getElementById('cb-dot');
+        const label = document.getElementById('cb-label');
+        const bar = document.getElementById('cb-bar');
+
+        const status = cb.status || 'unknown';
+        const threshold = cb.threshold_pct ?? -3.0;
+        const current = cb.current_pnl_pct;
+
+        // dot color
+        dot.className = `cb-dot ${status}`;
+
+        // label
+        if (current !== null && current !== undefined) {
+          const sign = current > 0 ? '+' : '';
+          label.textContent = `CB ${sign}${current.toFixed(2)}%`;
+        } else {
+          label.textContent = 'CB --';
+        }
+
+        // bar: fill = how much of the threshold has been consumed (0%=safe, 100%=tripped)
+        const colorMap = { ok: 'var(--accent)', warning: 'var(--warn)', tripped: 'var(--red)', unknown: 'var(--border)' };
+        bar.style.background = colorMap[status] || 'var(--border)';
+        if (current !== null && current !== undefined && threshold < 0) {
+          const fillPct = Math.min(Math.max((current / threshold) * 100, 0), 100);
+          bar.style.width = `${fillPct}%`;
+        } else {
+          bar.style.width = '0%';
+        }
+      }
+
       async function fetchStatus() {
         try {
           const r = await fetch('/api/status');
@@ -258,6 +511,7 @@
             pnlEl.className = `card-value ${n > 0 ? 'positive' : n < 0 ? 'negative' : 'neutral'}`;
           }
           document.getElementById('card-pnl-sub').textContent = `결정 ${t.decision_count ?? 0}건`;
+          renderCbGauge(d.circuit_breaker);
         } catch {}
       }
 
@@ -378,13 +632,129 @@
         fetchDecisions(currentMarket);
       }
 
+      function todayStr() {
+        return new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+      }
+
+      function esc(s) {
+        return String(s ?? '').replace(/&/g, '&amp;').replace(/</g, '&lt;').replace(/>/g, '&gt;').replace(/"/g, '&quot;');
+      }
+
+      async function fetchJSON(url) {
+        const r = await fetch(url);
+        if (!r.ok) throw new Error(`HTTP ${r.status}`);
+        return r.json();
+      }
+
+      async function fetchPlaybook() {
+        const market = document.getElementById('pb-market-select').value;
+        const date = todayStr();
+        document.getElementById('pb-date').textContent = date;
+        const el = document.getElementById('playbook-content');
+        try {
+          const data = await fetchJSON(`/api/playbook/${date}?market=${market}`);
+          const stocks = data.stock_playbooks ?? [];
+          if (stocks.length === 0) {
+            el.innerHTML = '<p class="empty-msg">오늘 플레이북 없음</p>';
+            return;
+          }
+          el.innerHTML = stocks.map(sp =>
+            `<details><summary>${esc(sp.stock_code ?? '?')} — ${esc(sp.signal ?? '')}</summary>` +
+            `<pre>${esc(JSON.stringify(sp, null, 2))}</pre></details>`
+          ).join('');
+        } catch {
+          el.innerHTML = '<p class="empty-msg">플레이북 없음 (오늘 미생성 또는 API 오류)</p>';
+        }
+      }
+
+      async function fetchScorecard() {
+        const market = document.getElementById('sc-market-select').value;
+        const date = todayStr();
+        document.getElementById('sc-date').textContent = date;
+        const el = document.getElementById('scorecard-grid');
+        try {
+          const data = await fetchJSON(`/api/scorecard/${date}?market=${market}`);
+          const sc = data.scorecard ?? {};
+          const entries = Object.entries(sc);
+          if (entries.length === 0) {
+            el.innerHTML = '<p class="empty-msg">스코어카드 없음</p>';
+            return;
+          }
+          el.className = 'scorecard-grid';
+          el.innerHTML = entries.map(([k, v]) => `
+            <div class="kpi-card">
+              <div class="kpi-label">${esc(k)}</div>
+              <div class="kpi-value">${typeof v === 'number' ? v.toFixed(2) : esc(String(v))}</div>
+            </div>`).join('');
+        } catch {
+          el.innerHTML = '<p class="empty-msg">스코어카드 없음 (오늘 미생성 또는 API 오류)</p>';
+        }
+      }
+
+      async function fetchScenarios() {
+        const market = document.getElementById('scen-market-select').value;
+        const date = todayStr();
+        const el = document.getElementById('scenarios-content');
+        try {
+          const data = await fetchJSON(`/api/scenarios/active?market=${market}&date_str=${date}&limit=50`);
+          const matches = data.matches ?? [];
+          if (matches.length === 0) {
+            el.innerHTML = '<p class="empty-msg">활성 시나리오 없음</p>';
+            return;
+          }
+          el.innerHTML = `<table class="scenarios-table">
+            <thead><tr><th>종목</th><th>신호</th><th>신뢰도</th><th>매칭 조건</th></tr></thead>
+            <tbody>${matches.map(m => `
+              <tr>
+                <td>${esc(m.stock_code)}</td>
+                <td>${esc(m.signal ?? '-')}</td>
+                <td>${esc(m.confidence ?? '-')}</td>
+                <td><code style="font-size:11px">${esc(JSON.stringify(m.scenario_match ?? {}))}</code></td>
+              </tr>`).join('')}
+            </tbody></table>`;
+        } catch {
+          el.innerHTML = '<p class="empty-msg">데이터 없음</p>';
+        }
+      }
+
+      async function fetchContext() {
+        const layer = document.getElementById('ctx-layer-select').value;
+        const limit = Math.min(Math.max(parseInt(document.getElementById('ctx-limit').value, 10) || 20, 1), 200);
+        const el = document.getElementById('context-content');
+        try {
+          const data = await fetchJSON(`/api/context/${layer}?limit=${limit}`);
+          const entries = data.entries ?? [];
+          if (entries.length === 0) {
+            el.innerHTML = '<p class="empty-msg">컨텍스트 없음</p>';
+            return;
+          }
+          el.innerHTML = `<table class="context-table">
+            <thead><tr><th>timeframe</th><th>key</th><th>value</th><th>updated</th></tr></thead>
+            <tbody>${entries.map(e => `
+              <tr>
+                <td>${esc(e.timeframe)}</td>
+                <td>${esc(e.key)}</td>
+                <td><div class="context-value">${esc(JSON.stringify(e.value ?? e.raw_value))}</div></td>
+                <td style="font-size:11px;color:var(--muted)">${esc((e.updated_at ?? '').slice(0, 16))}</td>
+              </tr>`).join('')}
+            </tbody></table>`;
+        } catch {
+          el.innerHTML = '<p class="empty-msg">데이터 없음</p>';
+        }
+      }
+
       async function refreshAll() {
         document.getElementById('last-updated').textContent = '업데이트 중...';
         await Promise.all([
           fetchStatus(),
           fetchPerformance(),
+          fetchPositions(),
           fetchPnlHistory(currentDays),
           fetchDecisions(currentMarket),
+          fetchPlaybook(),
+          fetchScorecard(),
+          fetchScenarios(),
+          fetchContext(),
         ]);
         const now = new Date();
         const timeStr = now.toLocaleTimeString('ko-KR', { hour: '2-digit', minute: '2-digit', second: '2-digit', hour12: false });

src/db.py

@@ -131,6 +131,25 @@ def init_db(db_path: str) -> sqlite3.Connection:
     conn.execute(
         "CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_decision_logs_confidence ON decision_logs(confidence)"
     )
+
+    # Index for open-position queries (partition by stock_code, market, ordered by timestamp)
+    conn.execute(
+        "CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_trades_stock_market_ts"
+        " ON trades (stock_code, market, timestamp DESC)"
+    )
+
+    # Lightweight key-value store for trading system runtime metrics (dashboard use only)
+    # Intentionally separate from the AI context tree to preserve separation of concerns.
+    conn.execute(
+        """
+        CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS system_metrics (
+            key        TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
+            value      TEXT NOT NULL,
+            updated_at TEXT NOT NULL
+        )
+        """
+    )
+
     conn.commit()
     return conn
 

src/main.py

@@ -42,7 +42,7 @@ from src.logging.decision_logger import DecisionLogger
 from src.logging_config import setup_logging
 from src.markets.schedule import MarketInfo, get_next_market_open, get_open_markets
 from src.notifications.telegram_client import NotificationFilter, TelegramClient, TelegramCommandHandler
-from src.strategy.models import DayPlaybook
+from src.strategy.models import DayPlaybook, MarketOutlook
 from src.strategy.playbook_store import PlaybookStore
 from src.strategy.pre_market_planner import PreMarketPlanner
 from src.strategy.scenario_engine import ScenarioEngine
@@ -81,6 +81,7 @@ def safe_float(value: str | float | None, default: float = 0.0) -> float:
 TRADE_INTERVAL_SECONDS = 60
 SCAN_INTERVAL_SECONDS = 60  # Scan markets every 60 seconds
 MAX_CONNECTION_RETRIES = 3
+_BUY_COOLDOWN_SECONDS = 600  # 10-minute cooldown after insufficient-balance rejection
 
 # Daily trading mode constants (for Free tier API efficiency)
 DAILY_TRADE_SESSIONS = 4  # Number of trading sessions per day
@@ -106,6 +107,82 @@ def _extract_symbol_from_holding(item: dict[str, Any]) -> str:
     return ""
 
 
+def _extract_held_codes_from_balance(
+    balance_data: dict[str, Any],
+    *,
+    is_domestic: bool,
+) -> list[str]:
+    """Return stock codes with a positive orderable quantity from a balance response.
+
+    Uses the broker's live output1 as the source of truth so that partial fills
+    and manual external trades are always reflected correctly.
+    """
+    output1 = balance_data.get("output1", [])
+    if isinstance(output1, dict):
+        output1 = [output1]
+    if not isinstance(output1, list):
+        return []
+
+    codes: list[str] = []
+    for holding in output1:
+        if not isinstance(holding, dict):
+            continue
+        code_key = "pdno" if is_domestic else "ovrs_pdno"
+        code = str(holding.get(code_key, "")).strip().upper()
+        if not code:
+            continue
+        if is_domestic:
+            qty = int(holding.get("ord_psbl_qty") or holding.get("hldg_qty") or 0)
+        else:
+            qty = int(holding.get("ovrs_cblc_qty") or holding.get("hldg_qty") or 0)
+        if qty > 0:
+            codes.append(code)
+    return codes
+
+
+def _extract_held_qty_from_balance(
+    balance_data: dict[str, Any],
+    stock_code: str,
+    *,
+    is_domestic: bool,
+) -> int:
+    """Extract the broker-confirmed orderable quantity for a stock.
+
+    Uses the broker's live balance response (output1) as the source of truth
+    rather than the local DB, because DB records reflect order quantity which
+    may differ from actual fill quantity due to partial fills.
+
+    Domestic fields (VTTC8434R output1):
+        pdno          — 종목코드
+        ord_psbl_qty  — 주문가능수량 (preferred: excludes unsettled)
+        hldg_qty      — 보유수량 (fallback)
+
+    Overseas fields (output1):
+        ovrs_pdno     — 종목코드
+        ovrs_cblc_qty — 해외잔고수량 (preferred)
+        hldg_qty      — 보유수량 (fallback)
+    """
+    output1 = balance_data.get("output1", [])
+    if isinstance(output1, dict):
+        output1 = [output1]
+    if not isinstance(output1, list):
+        return 0
+
+    for holding in output1:
+        if not isinstance(holding, dict):
+            continue
+        code_key = "pdno" if is_domestic else "ovrs_pdno"
+        held_code = str(holding.get(code_key, "")).strip().upper()
+        if held_code != stock_code.strip().upper():
+            continue
+        if is_domestic:
+            qty = int(holding.get("ord_psbl_qty") or holding.get("hldg_qty") or 0)
+        else:
+            qty = int(holding.get("ovrs_cblc_qty") or holding.get("hldg_qty") or 0)
+        return qty
+    return 0
+
+
 def _determine_order_quantity(
     *,
     action: str,
@@ -113,19 +190,40 @@ def _determine_order_quantity(
     total_cash: float,
     candidate: ScanCandidate | None,
     settings: Settings | None,
-    open_position: dict[str, Any] | None = None,
+    broker_held_qty: int = 0,
+    playbook_allocation_pct: float | None = None,
+    scenario_confidence: int = 80,
 ) -> int:
-    """Determine order quantity using volatility-aware position sizing."""
+    """Determine order quantity using volatility-aware position sizing.
+
+    Priority:
+    1. playbook_allocation_pct (AI-specified) scaled by scenario_confidence
+    2. Fallback: volatility-score-based allocation from scanner candidate
+    """
     if action == "SELL":
-        if open_position is None:
+        return broker_held_qty
-            return 0
-        return int(open_position.get("quantity") or 0)
     if current_price <= 0 or total_cash <= 0:
         return 0
 
     if settings is None or not settings.POSITION_SIZING_ENABLED:
         return 1
 
+    # Use AI-specified allocation_pct if available
+    if playbook_allocation_pct is not None:
+        # Confidence scaling: confidence 80 → 1.0x, confidence 95 → 1.19x
+        confidence_scale = scenario_confidence / 80.0
+        effective_pct = min(
+            settings.POSITION_MAX_ALLOCATION_PCT,
+            max(
+                settings.POSITION_MIN_ALLOCATION_PCT,
+                playbook_allocation_pct * confidence_scale,
+            ),
+        )
+        budget = total_cash * (effective_pct / 100.0)
+        quantity = int(budget // current_price)
+        return max(0, quantity)
+
+    # Fallback: volatility-score-based allocation
     target_score = max(1.0, settings.POSITION_VOLATILITY_TARGET_SCORE)
     observed_score = candidate.score if candidate else target_score
     observed_score = max(1.0, min(100.0, observed_score))
@@ -201,6 +299,7 @@ async def trading_cycle(
     stock_code: str,
     scan_candidates: dict[str, dict[str, ScanCandidate]],
     settings: Settings | None = None,
+    buy_cooldown: dict[str, float] | None = None,
 ) -> None:
     """Execute one trading cycle for a single stock."""
     cycle_start_time = asyncio.get_event_loop().time()
@@ -241,7 +340,13 @@ async def trading_cycle(
         purchase_total = safe_float(balance_info.get("frcr_buy_amt_smtl", "0") or "0")
 
         # Paper mode fallback: VTS overseas balance API often fails for many accounts.
-        if total_cash <= 0 and settings and settings.PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH > 0:
+        # Only activate in paper mode — live mode must use real balance from KIS.
+        if (
+            total_cash <= 0
+            and settings
+            and settings.MODE == "paper"
+            and settings.PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH > 0
+        ):
             logger.debug(
                 "Overseas cash balance is 0 for %s; using paper fallback %.2f USD",
                 market.exchange_code,
@@ -331,6 +436,17 @@ async def trading_cycle(
             {"volume_ratio": candidate.volume_ratio},
         )
 
+    # Write pnl_pct to system_metrics (dashboard-only table, separate from AI context tree)
+    db_conn.execute(
+        "INSERT OR REPLACE INTO system_metrics (key, value, updated_at) VALUES (?, ?, ?)",
+        (
+            f"portfolio_pnl_pct_{market.code}",
+            json.dumps({"pnl_pct": round(pnl_pct, 4)}),
+            datetime.now(UTC).isoformat(),
+        ),
+    )
+    db_conn.commit()
+
     # Build portfolio data for global rule evaluation
     portfolio_data = {
         "portfolio_pnl_pct": pnl_pct,
@@ -383,6 +499,61 @@ async def trading_cycle(
     )
     stock_playbook = playbook.get_stock_playbook(stock_code)
 
+    # 2.1. Apply market_outlook-based BUY confidence threshold
+    if decision.action == "BUY":
+        base_threshold = (settings.CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD if settings else 80)
+        outlook = playbook.market_outlook
+        if outlook == MarketOutlook.BEARISH:
+            min_confidence = 90
+        elif outlook == MarketOutlook.BULLISH:
+            min_confidence = 75
+        else:
+            min_confidence = base_threshold
+        if match.confidence < min_confidence:
+            logger.info(
+                "BUY suppressed for %s (%s): confidence %d < %d (market_outlook=%s)",
+                stock_code,
+                market.name,
+                match.confidence,
+                min_confidence,
+                outlook.value,
+            )
+            decision = TradeDecision(
+                action="HOLD",
+                confidence=match.confidence,
+                rationale=(
+                    f"BUY confidence {match.confidence} < {min_confidence} "
+                    f"(market_outlook={outlook.value})"
+                ),
+            )
+
+    # BUY 결정 전 기존 포지션 체크 (중복 매수 방지)
+    if decision.action == "BUY":
+        existing_position = get_open_position(db_conn, stock_code, market.code)
+        if not existing_position and not market.is_domestic:
+            # SELL 지정가 접수 후 미체결 시 DB는 종료로 기록되나 브로커는 여전히 보유 중.
+            # 이중 매수 방지를 위해 라이브 브로커 잔고를 authoritative source로 사용.
+            broker_qty = _extract_held_qty_from_balance(
+                balance_data, stock_code, is_domestic=False
+            )
+            if broker_qty > 0:
+                existing_position = {"price": 0.0, "quantity": broker_qty}
+        if existing_position:
+            decision = TradeDecision(
+                action="HOLD",
+                confidence=decision.confidence,
+                rationale=(
+                    f"Already holding {stock_code} "
+                    f"(entry={existing_position['price']:.4f}, "
+                    f"qty={existing_position['quantity']})"
+                ),
+            )
+            logger.info(
+                "BUY suppressed for %s (%s): already holding open position",
+                stock_code,
+                market.name,
+            )
+
     if decision.action == "HOLD":
         open_position = get_open_position(db_conn, stock_code, market.code)
         if open_position:
@@ -390,8 +561,10 @@ async def trading_cycle(
             if entry_price > 0:
                 loss_pct = (current_price - entry_price) / entry_price * 100
                 stop_loss_threshold = -2.0
+                take_profit_threshold = 3.0
                 if stock_playbook and stock_playbook.scenarios:
                     stop_loss_threshold = stock_playbook.scenarios[0].stop_loss_pct
+                    take_profit_threshold = stock_playbook.scenarios[0].take_profit_pct
 
                 if loss_pct <= stop_loss_threshold:
                     decision = TradeDecision(
@@ -409,6 +582,22 @@ async def trading_cycle(
                         loss_pct,
                         stop_loss_threshold,
                     )
+                elif loss_pct >= take_profit_threshold:
+                    decision = TradeDecision(
+                        action="SELL",
+                        confidence=90,
+                        rationale=(
+                            f"Take-profit triggered ({loss_pct:.2f}% >= "
+                            f"{take_profit_threshold:.2f}%)"
+                        ),
+                    )
+                    logger.info(
+                        "Take-profit override for %s (%s): %.2f%% >= %.2f%%",
+                        stock_code,
+                        market.name,
+                        loss_pct,
+                        take_profit_threshold,
+                    )
     logger.info(
         "Decision for %s (%s): %s (confidence=%d)",
         stock_code,
@@ -469,18 +658,23 @@ async def trading_cycle(
     trade_price = current_price
     trade_pnl = 0.0
     if decision.action in ("BUY", "SELL"):
-        sell_position = (
+        broker_held_qty = (
-            get_open_position(db_conn, stock_code, market.code)
+            _extract_held_qty_from_balance(
-            if decision.action == "SELL"
+                balance_data, stock_code, is_domestic=market.is_domestic
-            else None
             )
+            if decision.action == "SELL"
+            else 0
+        )
+        matched_scenario = match.matched_scenario
         quantity = _determine_order_quantity(
             action=decision.action,
             current_price=current_price,
             total_cash=total_cash,
             candidate=candidate,
             settings=settings,
-            open_position=sell_position,
+            broker_held_qty=broker_held_qty,
+            playbook_allocation_pct=matched_scenario.allocation_pct if matched_scenario else None,
+            scenario_confidence=match.confidence,
         )
         if quantity <= 0:
             logger.info(
@@ -494,8 +688,28 @@ async def trading_cycle(
             return
         order_amount = current_price * quantity
 
-        # 4. Risk check BEFORE order
+        # 4. Check BUY cooldown (set when a prior BUY failed due to insufficient balance)
+        if decision.action == "BUY" and buy_cooldown is not None:
+            cooldown_key = f"{market.code}:{stock_code}"
+            cooldown_until = buy_cooldown.get(cooldown_key, 0.0)
+            now = asyncio.get_event_loop().time()
+            if now < cooldown_until:
+                remaining = int(cooldown_until - now)
+                logger.info(
+                    "Skip BUY %s (%s): insufficient-balance cooldown active (%ds remaining)",
+                    stock_code,
+                    market.name,
+                    remaining,
+                )
+                return
+
+        # 5a. Risk check BEFORE order
+        # SELL orders do not consume cash (they receive it), so fat-finger check
+        # is skipped for SELLs — only circuit breaker applies.
         try:
+            if decision.action == "SELL":
+                risk.check_circuit_breaker(pnl_pct)
+            else:
                 risk.validate_order(
                     current_pnl_pct=pnl_pct,
                     order_amount=order_amount,
@@ -542,11 +756,23 @@ async def trading_cycle(
             # Check if KIS rejected the order (rt_cd != "0")
             if result.get("rt_cd", "") != "0":
                 order_succeeded = False
+                msg1 = result.get("msg1") or ""
                 logger.warning(
                     "Overseas order not accepted for %s: rt_cd=%s msg=%s",
                     stock_code,
                     result.get("rt_cd"),
-                    result.get("msg1"),
+                    msg1,
+                )
+                # Set BUY cooldown when the rejection is due to insufficient balance
+                if decision.action == "BUY" and buy_cooldown is not None and "주문가능금액" in msg1:
+                    cooldown_key = f"{market.code}:{stock_code}"
+                    buy_cooldown[cooldown_key] = (
+                        asyncio.get_event_loop().time() + _BUY_COOLDOWN_SECONDS
+                    )
+                    logger.info(
+                        "BUY cooldown set for %s: %.0fs (insufficient balance)",
+                        stock_code,
+                        _BUY_COOLDOWN_SECONDS,
                     )
         logger.info("Order result: %s", result.get("msg1", "OK"))
 
@@ -655,6 +881,9 @@ async def run_daily_session(
 
     logger.info("Starting daily trading session for %d markets", len(open_markets))
 
+    # BUY cooldown: prevents retrying stocks rejected for insufficient balance
+    daily_buy_cooldown: dict[str, float] = {}  # "{market_code}:{stock_code}" -> expiry timestamp
+
     # Process each open market
     for market in open_markets:
         # Use market-local date for playbook keying
@@ -818,11 +1047,12 @@ async def run_daily_session(
                 balance_info.get("frcr_buy_amt_smtl", "0") or "0"
             )
             # Paper mode fallback: VTS overseas balance API often fails for many accounts.
-            if total_cash <= 0 and settings.PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH > 0:
+            # Only activate in paper mode — live mode must use real balance from KIS.
-                total_cash = settings.PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH
+            if (
-
+                total_cash <= 0
-            # VTS overseas balance API often returns 0; use paper fallback.
+                and settings.MODE == "paper"
-            if total_cash <= 0 and settings.PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH > 0:
+                and settings.PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH > 0
+            ):
                 total_cash = settings.PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH
 
         # Calculate daily P&L %
@@ -861,6 +1091,33 @@ async def run_daily_session(
                 decision.confidence,
             )
 
+            # BUY 중복 방지: 브로커 잔고 기반 (미체결 SELL 리밋 주문 보호)
+            if decision.action == "BUY":
+                daily_existing = get_open_position(db_conn, stock_code, market.code)
+                if not daily_existing and not market.is_domestic:
+                    # SELL 지정가 접수 후 미체결 시 DB는 종료로 기록되나 브로커는 여전히 보유 중.
+                    # 이중 매수 방지를 위해 라이브 브로커 잔고를 authoritative source로 사용.
+                    broker_qty = _extract_held_qty_from_balance(
+                        balance_data, stock_code, is_domestic=False
+                    )
+                    if broker_qty > 0:
+                        daily_existing = {"price": 0.0, "quantity": broker_qty}
+                if daily_existing:
+                    decision = TradeDecision(
+                        action="HOLD",
+                        confidence=decision.confidence,
+                        rationale=(
+                            f"Already holding {stock_code} "
+                            f"(entry={daily_existing['price']:.4f}, "
+                            f"qty={daily_existing['quantity']})"
+                        ),
+                    )
+                    logger.info(
+                        "BUY suppressed for %s (%s): already holding open position",
+                        stock_code,
+                        market.name,
+                    )
+
             # Log decision
             context_snapshot = {
                 "L1": {
@@ -900,10 +1157,12 @@ async def run_daily_session(
             trade_pnl = 0.0
             order_succeeded = True
             if decision.action in ("BUY", "SELL"):
-                daily_sell_position = (
+                daily_broker_held_qty = (
-                    get_open_position(db_conn, stock_code, market.code)
+                    _extract_held_qty_from_balance(
+                        balance_data, stock_code, is_domestic=market.is_domestic
+                    )
                     if decision.action == "SELL"
-                    else None
+                    else 0
                 )
                 quantity = _determine_order_quantity(
                     action=decision.action,
@@ -911,7 +1170,7 @@ async def run_daily_session(
                     total_cash=total_cash,
                     candidate=candidate_map.get(stock_code),
                     settings=settings,
-                    open_position=daily_sell_position,
+                    broker_held_qty=daily_broker_held_qty,
                 )
                 if quantity <= 0:
                     logger.info(
@@ -925,8 +1184,28 @@ async def run_daily_session(
                     continue
                 order_amount = stock_data["current_price"] * quantity
 
+                # Check BUY cooldown (insufficient balance)
+                if decision.action == "BUY":
+                    daily_cooldown_key = f"{market.code}:{stock_code}"
+                    daily_cooldown_until = daily_buy_cooldown.get(daily_cooldown_key, 0.0)
+                    now = asyncio.get_event_loop().time()
+                    if now < daily_cooldown_until:
+                        remaining = int(daily_cooldown_until - now)
+                        logger.info(
+                            "Skip BUY %s (%s): insufficient-balance cooldown active (%ds remaining)",
+                            stock_code,
+                            market.name,
+                            remaining,
+                        )
+                        continue
+
                 # Risk check
+                # SELL orders do not consume cash (they receive it), so fat-finger
+                # check is skipped for SELLs — only circuit breaker applies.
                 try:
+                    if decision.action == "SELL":
+                        risk.check_circuit_breaker(pnl_pct)
+                    else:
                         risk.validate_order(
                             current_pnl_pct=pnl_pct,
                             order_amount=order_amount,
@@ -981,11 +1260,22 @@ async def run_daily_session(
                         )
                         if result.get("rt_cd", "") != "0":
                             order_succeeded = False
+                            daily_msg1 = result.get("msg1") or ""
                             logger.warning(
                                 "Overseas order not accepted for %s: rt_cd=%s msg=%s",
                                 stock_code,
                                 result.get("rt_cd"),
-                                result.get("msg1"),
+                                daily_msg1,
+                            )
+                            if decision.action == "BUY" and "주문가능금액" in daily_msg1:
+                                daily_cooldown_key = f"{market.code}:{stock_code}"
+                                daily_buy_cooldown[daily_cooldown_key] = (
+                                    asyncio.get_event_loop().time() + _BUY_COOLDOWN_SECONDS
+                                )
+                                logger.info(
+                                    "BUY cooldown set for %s: %.0fs (insufficient balance)",
+                                    stock_code,
+                                    _BUY_COOLDOWN_SECONDS,
                                 )
                     logger.info("Order result: %s", result.get("msg1", "OK"))
 
@@ -1150,10 +1440,18 @@ def _start_dashboard_server(settings: Settings) -> threading.Thread | None:
     if not settings.DASHBOARD_ENABLED:
         return None
 
+    # Validate dependencies before spawning the thread so startup failures are
+    # reported synchronously (avoids the misleading "started" → "failed" log pair).
+    try:
+        import uvicorn  # noqa: F401
+        from src.dashboard import create_dashboard_app  # noqa: F401
+    except ImportError as exc:
+        logger.warning("Dashboard server unavailable (missing dependency): %s", exc)
+        return None
+
     def _serve() -> None:
         try:
             import uvicorn
-
             from src.dashboard import create_dashboard_app
 
             app = create_dashboard_app(settings.DB_PATH)
@@ -1164,7 +1462,7 @@ def _start_dashboard_server(settings: Settings) -> threading.Thread | None:
                 log_level="info",
             )
         except Exception as exc:
-            logger.warning("Dashboard server failed to start: %s", exc)
+            logger.warning("Dashboard server stopped unexpectedly: %s", exc)
 
     thread = threading.Thread(
         target=_serve,
@@ -1605,6 +1903,9 @@ async def run(settings: Settings) -> None:
     # Active stocks per market (dynamically discovered by scanner)
     active_stocks: dict[str, list[str]] = {}  # market_code -> [stock_codes]
 
+    # BUY cooldown: prevents retrying a stock rejected for insufficient balance
+    buy_cooldown: dict[str, float] = {}  # "{market_code}:{stock_code}" -> expiry timestamp
+
     # Initialize latency control system
     criticality_assessor = CriticalityAssessor(
         critical_pnl_threshold=-2.5,  # Near circuit breaker at -3.0%
@@ -1685,6 +1986,10 @@ async def run(settings: Settings) -> None:
                     )
                 except CircuitBreakerTripped:
                     logger.critical("Circuit breaker tripped — shutting down")
+                    await telegram.notify_circuit_breaker(
+                        pnl_pct=settings.CIRCUIT_BREAKER_PCT,
+                        threshold=settings.CIRCUIT_BREAKER_PCT,
+                    )
                     shutdown.set()
                     break
                 except Exception as exc:
@@ -1878,8 +2183,38 @@ async def run(settings: Settings) -> None:
                         except Exception as exc:
                             logger.error("Smart Scanner failed for %s: %s", market.name, exc)
 
-                    # Get active stocks from scanner (dynamic, no static fallback)
+                    # Get active stocks from scanner (dynamic, no static fallback).
-                    stock_codes = active_stocks.get(market.code, [])
+                    # Also include currently-held positions so stop-loss /
+                    # take-profit can fire even when a holding drops off the
+                    # scanner.  Broker balance is the source of truth here —
+                    # unlike the local DB it reflects actual fills and any
+                    # manual trades done outside the bot.
+                    scanner_codes = active_stocks.get(market.code, [])
+                    try:
+                        if market.is_domestic:
+                            held_balance = await broker.get_balance()
+                        else:
+                            held_balance = await overseas_broker.get_overseas_balance(
+                                market.exchange_code
+                            )
+                        held_codes = _extract_held_codes_from_balance(
+                            held_balance, is_domestic=market.is_domestic
+                        )
+                    except Exception as exc:
+                        logger.warning(
+                            "Failed to fetch holdings for %s: %s — skipping holdings merge",
+                            market.name, exc,
+                        )
+                        held_codes = []
+
+                    stock_codes = list(dict.fromkeys(scanner_codes + held_codes))
+                    extra_held = [c for c in held_codes if c not in set(scanner_codes)]
+                    if extra_held:
+                        logger.info(
+                            "Holdings added to loop for %s (not in scanner): %s",
+                            market.name, extra_held,
+                        )
+
                     if not stock_codes:
                         logger.debug("No active stocks for market %s", market.code)
                         continue
@@ -1917,6 +2252,7 @@ async def run(settings: Settings) -> None:
                                     stock_code,
                                     scan_candidates,
                                     settings,
+                                    buy_cooldown,
                                 )
                                 break  # Success — exit retry loop
                             except CircuitBreakerTripped as exc:
@@ -1971,6 +2307,8 @@ async def run(settings: Settings) -> None:
                 except TimeoutError:
                     pass  # Normal — timeout means it's time for next cycle
     finally:
+        # Notify shutdown before closing resources
+        await telegram.notify_system_shutdown("Normal shutdown")
         # Clean up resources
         await command_handler.stop_polling()
         await broker.close()

src/notifications/telegram_client.py

@@ -604,6 +604,16 @@ class TelegramCommandHandler:
             async with session.post(url, json=payload) as resp:
                 if resp.status != 200:
                     error_text = await resp.text()
+                    if resp.status == 409:
+                        # Another bot instance is already polling — stop this poller entirely.
+                        # Retrying would keep conflicting with the other instance.
+                        self._running = False
+                        logger.warning(
+                            "Telegram conflict (409): another instance is already polling. "
+                            "Disabling Telegram commands for this process. "
+                            "Ensure only one instance of The Ouroboros is running at a time.",
+                        )
+                    else:
                         logger.error(
                             "getUpdates API error (status=%d): %s", resp.status, error_text
                         )

src/strategy/models.py

@@ -46,6 +46,18 @@ class StockCondition(BaseModel):
 
     The ScenarioEngine evaluates all non-None fields as AND conditions.
     A condition matches only if ALL specified fields are satisfied.
+
+    Technical indicator fields:
+        rsi_below / rsi_above — RSI threshold
+        volume_ratio_above / volume_ratio_below — volume vs previous day
+        price_above / price_below — absolute price level
+        price_change_pct_above / price_change_pct_below — intraday % change
+
+    Position-aware fields (require market_data enrichment from open position):
+        unrealized_pnl_pct_above — matches if unrealized P&L > threshold (e.g. 3.0 → +3%)
+        unrealized_pnl_pct_below — matches if unrealized P&L < threshold (e.g. -2.0 → -2%)
+        holding_days_above — matches if position held for more than N days
+        holding_days_below — matches if position held for fewer than N days
     """
 
     rsi_below: float | None = None
@@ -56,6 +68,10 @@ class StockCondition(BaseModel):
     price_below: float | None = None
     price_change_pct_above: float | None = None
     price_change_pct_below: float | None = None
+    unrealized_pnl_pct_above: float | None = None
+    unrealized_pnl_pct_below: float | None = None
+    holding_days_above: int | None = None
+    holding_days_below: int | None = None
 
     def has_any_condition(self) -> bool:
         """Check if at least one condition field is set."""
@@ -70,6 +86,10 @@ class StockCondition(BaseModel):
                 self.price_below,
                 self.price_change_pct_above,
                 self.price_change_pct_below,
+                self.unrealized_pnl_pct_above,
+                self.unrealized_pnl_pct_below,
+                self.holding_days_above,
+                self.holding_days_below,
             )
         )
 

src/strategy/pre_market_planner.py

@@ -75,6 +75,7 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
         market: str,
         candidates: list[ScanCandidate],
         today: date | None = None,
+        current_holdings: list[dict] | None = None,
     ) -> DayPlaybook:
         """Generate a DayPlaybook for a market using Gemini.
 
@@ -82,6 +83,10 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
             market: Market code ("KR" or "US")
             candidates: Stock candidates from SmartVolatilityScanner
             today: Override date (defaults to date.today()). Use market-local date.
+            current_holdings: Currently held positions with entry_price and unrealized_pnl_pct.
+                Each dict: {"stock_code": str, "name": str, "qty": int,
+                            "entry_price": float, "unrealized_pnl_pct": float,
+                            "holding_days": int}
 
         Returns:
             DayPlaybook with scenarios. Empty/defensive if no candidates or failure.
@@ -106,6 +111,7 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
                 context_data,
                 self_market_scorecard,
                 cross_market,
+                current_holdings=current_holdings,
             )
 
             # 3. Call Gemini
@@ -118,7 +124,8 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
 
             # 4. Parse response
             playbook = self._parse_response(
-                decision.rationale, today, market, candidates, cross_market
+                decision.rationale, today, market, candidates, cross_market,
+                current_holdings=current_holdings,
             )
             playbook_with_tokens = playbook.model_copy(
                 update={"token_count": decision.token_count}
@@ -230,6 +237,7 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
         context_data: dict[str, Any],
         self_market_scorecard: dict[str, Any] | None,
         cross_market: CrossMarketContext | None,
+        current_holdings: list[dict] | None = None,
     ) -> str:
         """Build a structured prompt for Gemini to generate scenario JSON."""
         max_scenarios = self._settings.MAX_SCENARIOS_PER_STOCK
@@ -241,6 +249,26 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
             for c in candidates
         )
 
+        holdings_text = ""
+        if current_holdings:
+            lines = []
+            for h in current_holdings:
+                code = h.get("stock_code", "")
+                name = h.get("name", "")
+                qty = h.get("qty", 0)
+                entry_price = h.get("entry_price", 0.0)
+                pnl_pct = h.get("unrealized_pnl_pct", 0.0)
+                holding_days = h.get("holding_days", 0)
+                lines.append(
+                    f"  - {code} ({name}): {qty}주 @ {entry_price:,.0f}, "
+                    f"미실현손익 {pnl_pct:+.2f}%, 보유 {holding_days}일"
+                )
+            holdings_text = (
+                "\n## Current Holdings (보유 중 — SELL/HOLD 전략 고려 필요)\n"
+                + "\n".join(lines)
+                + "\n"
+            )
+
         cross_market_text = ""
         if cross_market:
             cross_market_text = (
@@ -273,10 +301,20 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
                     for key, value in list(layer_data.items())[:5]:
                         context_text += f"  - {key}: {value}\n"
 
+        holdings_instruction = ""
+        if current_holdings:
+            holding_codes = [h.get("stock_code", "") for h in current_holdings]
+            holdings_instruction = (
+                f"- Also include SELL/HOLD scenarios for held stocks: "
+                f"{', '.join(holding_codes)} "
+                f"(even if not in candidates list)\n"
+            )
+
         return (
             f"You are a pre-market trading strategist for the {market} market.\n"
             f"Generate structured trading scenarios for today.\n\n"
             f"## Candidates (from volatility scanner)\n{candidates_text}\n"
+            f"{holdings_text}"
             f"{self_market_text}"
             f"{cross_market_text}"
             f"{context_text}\n"
@@ -294,7 +332,8 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
             f'      "stock_code": "...",\n'
             f'      "scenarios": [\n'
             f'        {{\n'
-            f'          "condition": {{"rsi_below": 30, "volume_ratio_above": 2.0}},\n'
+            f'          "condition": {{"rsi_below": 30, "volume_ratio_above": 2.0,'
+            f' "unrealized_pnl_pct_above": 3.0, "holding_days_above": 5}},\n'
             f'          "action": "BUY|SELL|HOLD",\n'
             f'          "confidence": 85,\n'
             f'          "allocation_pct": 10.0,\n'
@@ -308,7 +347,8 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
             f'}}\n\n'
             f"Rules:\n"
             f"- Max {max_scenarios} scenarios per stock\n"
-            f"- Only use stocks from the candidates list\n"
+            f"- Candidates list is the primary source for BUY candidates\n"
+            f"{holdings_instruction}"
             f"- Confidence 0-100 (80+ for actionable trades)\n"
             f"- stop_loss_pct must be <= 0, take_profit_pct must be >= 0\n"
             f"- Return ONLY the JSON, no markdown fences or explanation\n"
@@ -321,12 +361,19 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
         market: str,
         candidates: list[ScanCandidate],
         cross_market: CrossMarketContext | None,
+        current_holdings: list[dict] | None = None,
     ) -> DayPlaybook:
         """Parse Gemini's JSON response into a validated DayPlaybook."""
         cleaned = self._extract_json(response_text)
         data = json.loads(cleaned)
 
         valid_codes = {c.stock_code for c in candidates}
+        # Holdings are also valid — AI may generate SELL/HOLD scenarios for them
+        if current_holdings:
+            for h in current_holdings:
+                code = h.get("stock_code", "")
+                if code:
+                    valid_codes.add(code)
 
         # Parse market outlook
         outlook_str = data.get("market_outlook", "neutral")
@@ -390,6 +437,10 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
                 price_below=cond_data.get("price_below"),
                 price_change_pct_above=cond_data.get("price_change_pct_above"),
                 price_change_pct_below=cond_data.get("price_change_pct_below"),
+                unrealized_pnl_pct_above=cond_data.get("unrealized_pnl_pct_above"),
+                unrealized_pnl_pct_below=cond_data.get("unrealized_pnl_pct_below"),
+                holding_days_above=cond_data.get("holding_days_above"),
+                holding_days_below=cond_data.get("holding_days_below"),
             )
 
             if not condition.has_any_condition():

src/strategy/scenario_engine.py

@@ -206,6 +206,37 @@ class ScenarioEngine:
         if condition.price_change_pct_below is not None:
             checks.append(price_change_pct is not None and price_change_pct < condition.price_change_pct_below)
 
+        # Position-aware conditions
+        unrealized_pnl_pct = self._safe_float(market_data.get("unrealized_pnl_pct"))
+        if condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_above is not None or condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_below is not None:
+            if "unrealized_pnl_pct" not in market_data:
+                self._warn_missing_key("unrealized_pnl_pct")
+        if condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_above is not None:
+            checks.append(
+                unrealized_pnl_pct is not None
+                and unrealized_pnl_pct > condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_above
+            )
+        if condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_below is not None:
+            checks.append(
+                unrealized_pnl_pct is not None
+                and unrealized_pnl_pct < condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_below
+            )
+
+        holding_days = self._safe_float(market_data.get("holding_days"))
+        if condition.holding_days_above is not None or condition.holding_days_below is not None:
+            if "holding_days" not in market_data:
+                self._warn_missing_key("holding_days")
+        if condition.holding_days_above is not None:
+            checks.append(
+                holding_days is not None
+                and holding_days > condition.holding_days_above
+            )
+        if condition.holding_days_below is not None:
+            checks.append(
+                holding_days is not None
+                and holding_days < condition.holding_days_below
+            )
+
         return len(checks) > 0 and all(checks)
 
     def _evaluate_global_condition(
@@ -266,5 +297,9 @@ class ScenarioEngine:
             details["current_price"] = self._safe_float(market_data.get("current_price"))
         if condition.price_change_pct_above is not None or condition.price_change_pct_below is not None:
             details["price_change_pct"] = self._safe_float(market_data.get("price_change_pct"))
+        if condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_above is not None or condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_below is not None:
+            details["unrealized_pnl_pct"] = self._safe_float(market_data.get("unrealized_pnl_pct"))
+        if condition.holding_days_above is not None or condition.holding_days_below is not None:
+            details["holding_days"] = self._safe_float(market_data.get("holding_days"))
 
         return details

tests/test_broker.py

@@ -572,4 +572,156 @@ class TestSendOrderTickRounding:
         order_call = mock_post.call_args_list[1]
         body = order_call[1].get("json", {})
         assert body["ORD_DVSN"] == "01"
-        assert body["ORD_UNPR"] == "0"
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# TR_ID live/paper branching (issues #201, #202, #203)
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+class TestTRIDBranchingDomestic:
+    """get_balance and send_order must use correct TR_ID for live vs paper mode."""
+
+    def _make_broker(self, settings, mode: str) -> KISBroker:
+        from src.config import Settings
+
+        s = Settings(
+            KIS_APP_KEY=settings.KIS_APP_KEY,
+            KIS_APP_SECRET=settings.KIS_APP_SECRET,
+            KIS_ACCOUNT_NO=settings.KIS_ACCOUNT_NO,
+            GEMINI_API_KEY=settings.GEMINI_API_KEY,
+            DB_PATH=":memory:",
+            ENABLED_MARKETS="KR",
+            MODE=mode,
+        )
+        b = KISBroker(s)
+        b._access_token = "tok"
+        b._token_expires_at = float("inf")
+        b._rate_limiter.acquire = AsyncMock()
+        return b
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_get_balance_paper_uses_vttc8434r(self, settings) -> None:
+        broker = self._make_broker(settings, "paper")
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(
+            return_value={"output1": [], "output2": {}}
+        )
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        with patch("aiohttp.ClientSession.get", return_value=mock_resp) as mock_get:
+            await broker.get_balance()
+
+        headers = mock_get.call_args[1].get("headers", {})
+        assert headers["tr_id"] == "VTTC8434R"
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_get_balance_live_uses_tttc8434r(self, settings) -> None:
+        broker = self._make_broker(settings, "live")
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(
+            return_value={"output1": [], "output2": {}}
+        )
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        with patch("aiohttp.ClientSession.get", return_value=mock_resp) as mock_get:
+            await broker.get_balance()
+
+        headers = mock_get.call_args[1].get("headers", {})
+        assert headers["tr_id"] == "TTTC8434R"
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_send_order_buy_paper_uses_vttc0012u(self, settings) -> None:
+        broker = self._make_broker(settings, "paper")
+        mock_hash = AsyncMock()
+        mock_hash.status = 200
+        mock_hash.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"HASH": "h"})
+        mock_hash.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_hash)
+        mock_hash.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_order = AsyncMock()
+        mock_order.status = 200
+        mock_order.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0"})
+        mock_order.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_order)
+        mock_order.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        with patch(
+            "aiohttp.ClientSession.post", side_effect=[mock_hash, mock_order]
+        ) as mock_post:
+            await broker.send_order("005930", "BUY", 1)
+
+        order_headers = mock_post.call_args_list[1][1].get("headers", {})
+        assert order_headers["tr_id"] == "VTTC0012U"
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_send_order_buy_live_uses_tttc0012u(self, settings) -> None:
+        broker = self._make_broker(settings, "live")
+        mock_hash = AsyncMock()
+        mock_hash.status = 200
+        mock_hash.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"HASH": "h"})
+        mock_hash.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_hash)
+        mock_hash.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_order = AsyncMock()
+        mock_order.status = 200
+        mock_order.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0"})
+        mock_order.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_order)
+        mock_order.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        with patch(
+            "aiohttp.ClientSession.post", side_effect=[mock_hash, mock_order]
+        ) as mock_post:
+            await broker.send_order("005930", "BUY", 1)
+
+        order_headers = mock_post.call_args_list[1][1].get("headers", {})
+        assert order_headers["tr_id"] == "TTTC0012U"
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_send_order_sell_paper_uses_vttc0011u(self, settings) -> None:
+        broker = self._make_broker(settings, "paper")
+        mock_hash = AsyncMock()
+        mock_hash.status = 200
+        mock_hash.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"HASH": "h"})
+        mock_hash.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_hash)
+        mock_hash.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_order = AsyncMock()
+        mock_order.status = 200
+        mock_order.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0"})
+        mock_order.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_order)
+        mock_order.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        with patch(
+            "aiohttp.ClientSession.post", side_effect=[mock_hash, mock_order]
+        ) as mock_post:
+            await broker.send_order("005930", "SELL", 1)
+
+        order_headers = mock_post.call_args_list[1][1].get("headers", {})
+        assert order_headers["tr_id"] == "VTTC0011U"
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_send_order_sell_live_uses_tttc0011u(self, settings) -> None:
+        broker = self._make_broker(settings, "live")
+        mock_hash = AsyncMock()
+        mock_hash.status = 200
+        mock_hash.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"HASH": "h"})
+        mock_hash.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_hash)
+        mock_hash.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_order = AsyncMock()
+        mock_order.status = 200
+        mock_order.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0"})
+        mock_order.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_order)
+        mock_order.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        with patch(
+            "aiohttp.ClientSession.post", side_effect=[mock_hash, mock_order]
+        ) as mock_post:
+            await broker.send_order("005930", "SELL", 1)
+
+        order_headers = mock_post.call_args_list[1][1].get("headers", {})
+        assert order_headers["tr_id"] == "TTTC0011U"

tests/test_dashboard.py

@@ -316,3 +316,100 @@ def test_pnl_history_market_filter(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
     # KR has 1 trade with pnl=2.0
     assert len(body["labels"]) >= 1
     assert body["pnl"][0] == 2.0
+
+
+def test_positions_returns_open_buy(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
+    """BUY가 마지막 거래인 종목은 포지션으로 반환되어야 한다."""
+    app = _app(tmp_path)
+    get_positions = _endpoint(app, "/api/positions")
+    body = get_positions()
+    # seed_db: 005930은 BUY (오픈), AAPL은 SELL (마지막)
+    assert body["count"] == 1
+    pos = body["positions"][0]
+    assert pos["stock_code"] == "005930"
+    assert pos["market"] == "KR"
+    assert pos["quantity"] == 1
+    assert pos["entry_price"] == 70000
+
+
+def test_positions_excludes_closed_sell(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
+    """마지막 거래가 SELL인 종목은 포지션에 나타나지 않아야 한다."""
+    app = _app(tmp_path)
+    get_positions = _endpoint(app, "/api/positions")
+    body = get_positions()
+    codes = [p["stock_code"] for p in body["positions"]]
+    assert "AAPL" not in codes
+
+
+def test_positions_empty_when_no_trades(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
+    """거래 내역이 없으면 빈 포지션 목록을 반환해야 한다."""
+    db_path = tmp_path / "empty.db"
+    conn = init_db(str(db_path))
+    conn.close()
+    app = create_dashboard_app(str(db_path))
+    get_positions = _endpoint(app, "/api/positions")
+    body = get_positions()
+    assert body["count"] == 0
+    assert body["positions"] == []
+
+
+def _seed_cb_context(conn: sqlite3.Connection, pnl_pct: float, market: str = "KR") -> None:
+    import json as _json
+    conn.execute(
+        "INSERT OR REPLACE INTO system_metrics (key, value, updated_at) VALUES (?, ?, ?)",
+        (
+            f"portfolio_pnl_pct_{market}",
+            _json.dumps({"pnl_pct": pnl_pct}),
+            "2026-02-22T10:00:00+00:00",
+        ),
+    )
+    conn.commit()
+
+
+def test_status_circuit_breaker_ok(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
+    """pnl_pct가 -2.0%보다 높으면 status=ok를 반환해야 한다."""
+    db_path = tmp_path / "cb_ok.db"
+    conn = init_db(str(db_path))
+    _seed_cb_context(conn, -1.0)
+    conn.close()
+    app = create_dashboard_app(str(db_path))
+    get_status = _endpoint(app, "/api/status")
+    body = get_status()
+    cb = body["circuit_breaker"]
+    assert cb["status"] == "ok"
+    assert cb["current_pnl_pct"] == -1.0
+    assert cb["threshold_pct"] == -3.0
+
+
+def test_status_circuit_breaker_warning(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
+    """pnl_pct가 -2.0% 이하이면 status=warning을 반환해야 한다."""
+    db_path = tmp_path / "cb_warn.db"
+    conn = init_db(str(db_path))
+    _seed_cb_context(conn, -2.5)
+    conn.close()
+    app = create_dashboard_app(str(db_path))
+    get_status = _endpoint(app, "/api/status")
+    body = get_status()
+    assert body["circuit_breaker"]["status"] == "warning"
+
+
+def test_status_circuit_breaker_tripped(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
+    """pnl_pct가 임계값(-3.0%) 이하이면 status=tripped를 반환해야 한다."""
+    db_path = tmp_path / "cb_tripped.db"
+    conn = init_db(str(db_path))
+    _seed_cb_context(conn, -3.5)
+    conn.close()
+    app = create_dashboard_app(str(db_path))
+    get_status = _endpoint(app, "/api/status")
+    body = get_status()
+    assert body["circuit_breaker"]["status"] == "tripped"
+
+
+def test_status_circuit_breaker_unknown_when_no_data(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
+    """L7 context에 pnl_pct 데이터가 없으면 status=unknown을 반환해야 한다."""
+    app = _app(tmp_path)  # seed_db에는 portfolio_pnl_pct 없음
+    get_status = _endpoint(app, "/api/status")
+    body = get_status()
+    cb = body["circuit_breaker"]
+    assert cb["status"] == "unknown"
+    assert cb["current_pnl_pct"] is None

tests/test_overseas_broker.py

@@ -414,7 +414,7 @@ class TestSendOverseasOrder:
 
     @pytest.mark.asyncio
     async def test_sell_limit_order(self, overseas_broker: OverseasBroker) -> None:
-        """Limit sell order should use VTTT1006U and ORD_DVSN=00."""
+        """Limit sell order should use VTTT1001U and ORD_DVSN=00."""
         mock_resp = AsyncMock()
         mock_resp.status = 200
         mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0"})
@@ -428,7 +428,7 @@ class TestSendOverseasOrder:
         result = await overseas_broker.send_overseas_order("NYSE", "MSFT", "SELL", 5, price=350.0)
         assert result["rt_cd"] == "0"
 
-        overseas_broker._broker._auth_headers.assert_called_with("VTTT1006U")
+        overseas_broker._broker._auth_headers.assert_called_with("VTTT1001U")
 
         call_args = mock_session.post.call_args
         body = call_args[1]["json"]
@@ -640,4 +640,176 @@ class TestPaperOverseasCash:
             GEMINI_API_KEY="g",
         )
         assert settings.PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH == 0.0
-        del os.environ["PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH"]
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# TR_ID live/paper branching — overseas (issues #201, #203)
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+def _make_overseas_broker_with_mode(mode: str) -> OverseasBroker:
+    s = Settings(
+        KIS_APP_KEY="k",
+        KIS_APP_SECRET="s",
+        KIS_ACCOUNT_NO="12345678-01",
+        GEMINI_API_KEY="g",
+        DB_PATH=":memory:",
+        MODE=mode,
+    )
+    kis = KISBroker(s)
+    kis._access_token = "tok"
+    kis._token_expires_at = float("inf")
+    kis._rate_limiter.acquire = AsyncMock()
+    return OverseasBroker(kis)
+
+
+class TestOverseasTRIDBranching:
+    """get_overseas_balance and send_overseas_order must use correct TR_ID."""
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_get_overseas_balance_paper_uses_vtts3012r(self) -> None:
+        broker = _make_overseas_broker_with_mode("paper")
+        captured: list[str] = []
+
+        async def mock_auth_headers(tr_id: str) -> dict:
+            captured.append(tr_id)
+            return {"tr_id": tr_id, "authorization": "Bearer tok"}
+
+        broker._broker._auth_headers = mock_auth_headers  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"output1": [], "output2": []})
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_session = MagicMock()
+        mock_session.get = MagicMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        broker._broker._get_session = MagicMock(return_value=mock_session)
+
+        await broker.get_overseas_balance("NASD")
+        assert "VTTS3012R" in captured
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_get_overseas_balance_live_uses_ttts3012r(self) -> None:
+        broker = _make_overseas_broker_with_mode("live")
+        captured: list[str] = []
+
+        async def mock_auth_headers(tr_id: str) -> dict:
+            captured.append(tr_id)
+            return {"tr_id": tr_id, "authorization": "Bearer tok"}
+
+        broker._broker._auth_headers = mock_auth_headers  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"output1": [], "output2": []})
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_session = MagicMock()
+        mock_session.get = MagicMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        broker._broker._get_session = MagicMock(return_value=mock_session)
+
+        await broker.get_overseas_balance("NASD")
+        assert "TTTS3012R" in captured
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_send_overseas_order_buy_paper_uses_vttt1002u(self) -> None:
+        broker = _make_overseas_broker_with_mode("paper")
+        captured: list[str] = []
+
+        async def mock_auth_headers(tr_id: str) -> dict:
+            captured.append(tr_id)
+            return {"tr_id": tr_id, "authorization": "Bearer tok"}
+
+        broker._broker._auth_headers = mock_auth_headers  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+        broker._broker._get_hash_key = AsyncMock(return_value="h")  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0", "msg1": "OK"})
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_session = MagicMock()
+        mock_session.post = MagicMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        broker._broker._get_session = MagicMock(return_value=mock_session)
+
+        await broker.send_overseas_order("NASD", "AAPL", "BUY", 1)
+        assert "VTTT1002U" in captured
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_send_overseas_order_buy_live_uses_tttt1002u(self) -> None:
+        broker = _make_overseas_broker_with_mode("live")
+        captured: list[str] = []
+
+        async def mock_auth_headers(tr_id: str) -> dict:
+            captured.append(tr_id)
+            return {"tr_id": tr_id, "authorization": "Bearer tok"}
+
+        broker._broker._auth_headers = mock_auth_headers  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+        broker._broker._get_hash_key = AsyncMock(return_value="h")  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0", "msg1": "OK"})
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_session = MagicMock()
+        mock_session.post = MagicMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        broker._broker._get_session = MagicMock(return_value=mock_session)
+
+        await broker.send_overseas_order("NASD", "AAPL", "BUY", 1)
+        assert "TTTT1002U" in captured
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_send_overseas_order_sell_paper_uses_vttt1001u(self) -> None:
+        broker = _make_overseas_broker_with_mode("paper")
+        captured: list[str] = []
+
+        async def mock_auth_headers(tr_id: str) -> dict:
+            captured.append(tr_id)
+            return {"tr_id": tr_id, "authorization": "Bearer tok"}
+
+        broker._broker._auth_headers = mock_auth_headers  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+        broker._broker._get_hash_key = AsyncMock(return_value="h")  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0", "msg1": "OK"})
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_session = MagicMock()
+        mock_session.post = MagicMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        broker._broker._get_session = MagicMock(return_value=mock_session)
+
+        await broker.send_overseas_order("NASD", "AAPL", "SELL", 1)
+        assert "VTTT1001U" in captured
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_send_overseas_order_sell_live_uses_tttt1006u(self) -> None:
+        broker = _make_overseas_broker_with_mode("live")
+        captured: list[str] = []
+
+        async def mock_auth_headers(tr_id: str) -> dict:
+            captured.append(tr_id)
+            return {"tr_id": tr_id, "authorization": "Bearer tok"}
+
+        broker._broker._auth_headers = mock_auth_headers  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+        broker._broker._get_hash_key = AsyncMock(return_value="h")  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0", "msg1": "OK"})
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_session = MagicMock()
+        mock_session.post = MagicMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        broker._broker._get_session = MagicMock(return_value=mock_session)
+
+        await broker.send_overseas_order("NASD", "AAPL", "SELL", 1)
+        assert "TTTT1006U" in captured

tests/test_pre_market_planner.py

@@ -830,3 +830,171 @@ class TestSmartFallbackPlaybook:
         ]
         assert len(buy_scenarios) == 1
         assert buy_scenarios[0].condition.volume_ratio_above == 2.0  # VOL_MULTIPLIER default
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Holdings in prompt (#170)
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+class TestHoldingsInPrompt:
+    """Tests for current_holdings parameter in generate_playbook / _build_prompt."""
+
+    def _make_holdings(self) -> list[dict]:
+        return [
+            {
+                "stock_code": "005930",
+                "name": "Samsung",
+                "qty": 10,
+                "entry_price": 71000.0,
+                "unrealized_pnl_pct": 2.3,
+                "holding_days": 3,
+            }
+        ]
+
+    def test_build_prompt_includes_holdings_section(self) -> None:
+        """Prompt should contain a Current Holdings section when holdings are given."""
+        planner = _make_planner()
+        candidates = [_candidate()]
+        holdings = self._make_holdings()
+
+        prompt = planner._build_prompt(
+            "KR",
+            candidates,
+            context_data={},
+            self_market_scorecard=None,
+            cross_market=None,
+            current_holdings=holdings,
+        )
+
+        assert "## Current Holdings" in prompt
+        assert "005930" in prompt
+        assert "+2.30%" in prompt
+        assert "보유 3일" in prompt
+
+    def test_build_prompt_no_holdings_omits_section(self) -> None:
+        """Prompt should NOT contain a Current Holdings section when holdings=None."""
+        planner = _make_planner()
+        candidates = [_candidate()]
+
+        prompt = planner._build_prompt(
+            "KR",
+            candidates,
+            context_data={},
+            self_market_scorecard=None,
+            cross_market=None,
+            current_holdings=None,
+        )
+
+        assert "## Current Holdings" not in prompt
+
+    def test_build_prompt_empty_holdings_omits_section(self) -> None:
+        """Empty list should also omit the holdings section."""
+        planner = _make_planner()
+        candidates = [_candidate()]
+
+        prompt = planner._build_prompt(
+            "KR",
+            candidates,
+            context_data={},
+            self_market_scorecard=None,
+            cross_market=None,
+            current_holdings=[],
+        )
+
+        assert "## Current Holdings" not in prompt
+
+    def test_build_prompt_holdings_instruction_included(self) -> None:
+        """Prompt should include instruction to generate scenarios for held stocks."""
+        planner = _make_planner()
+        candidates = [_candidate()]
+        holdings = self._make_holdings()
+
+        prompt = planner._build_prompt(
+            "KR",
+            candidates,
+            context_data={},
+            self_market_scorecard=None,
+            cross_market=None,
+            current_holdings=holdings,
+        )
+
+        assert "005930" in prompt
+        assert "SELL/HOLD" in prompt
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_generate_playbook_passes_holdings_to_prompt(self) -> None:
+        """generate_playbook should pass current_holdings through to the prompt."""
+        planner = _make_planner()
+        candidates = [_candidate()]
+        holdings = self._make_holdings()
+
+        # Capture the actual prompt sent to Gemini
+        captured_prompts: list[str] = []
+        original_decide = planner._gemini.decide
+
+        async def capture_and_call(data: dict) -> TradeDecision:
+            captured_prompts.append(data.get("prompt_override", ""))
+            return await original_decide(data)
+
+        planner._gemini.decide = capture_and_call  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+        await planner.generate_playbook(
+            "KR", candidates, today=date(2026, 2, 8), current_holdings=holdings
+        )
+
+        assert len(captured_prompts) == 1
+        assert "## Current Holdings" in captured_prompts[0]
+        assert "005930" in captured_prompts[0]
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_holdings_stock_allowed_in_parse_response(self) -> None:
+        """Holdings stocks not in candidates list should be accepted in the response."""
+        holding_code = "000660"  # Not in candidates
+        stocks = [
+            {
+                "stock_code": "005930",  # candidate
+                "scenarios": [
+                    {
+                        "condition": {"rsi_below": 30},
+                        "action": "BUY",
+                        "confidence": 85,
+                        "rationale": "oversold",
+                    }
+                ],
+            },
+            {
+                "stock_code": holding_code,  # holding only
+                "scenarios": [
+                    {
+                        "condition": {"price_change_pct_below": -2.0},
+                        "action": "SELL",
+                        "confidence": 90,
+                        "rationale": "stop-loss",
+                    }
+                ],
+            },
+        ]
+        planner = _make_planner(gemini_response=_gemini_response_json(stocks=stocks))
+        candidates = [_candidate()]  # only 005930
+        holdings = [
+            {
+                "stock_code": holding_code,
+                "name": "SK Hynix",
+                "qty": 5,
+                "entry_price": 180000.0,
+                "unrealized_pnl_pct": -1.5,
+                "holding_days": 7,
+            }
+        ]
+
+        pb = await planner.generate_playbook(
+            "KR",
+            candidates,
+            today=date(2026, 2, 8),
+            current_holdings=holdings,
+        )
+
+        codes = [sp.stock_code for sp in pb.stock_playbooks]
+        assert "005930" in codes
+        assert holding_code in codes

tests/test_scenario_engine.py

@@ -440,3 +440,135 @@ class TestEvaluate:
         assert result.action == ScenarioAction.BUY
         assert result.match_details["rsi"] == 25.0
         assert isinstance(result.match_details["rsi"], float)
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Position-aware condition tests (#171)
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+class TestPositionAwareConditions:
+    """Tests for unrealized_pnl_pct and holding_days condition fields."""
+
+    def test_evaluate_condition_unrealized_pnl_above_matches(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """unrealized_pnl_pct_above should match when P&L exceeds threshold."""
+        condition = StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"unrealized_pnl_pct": 5.0}) is True
+
+    def test_evaluate_condition_unrealized_pnl_above_no_match(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """unrealized_pnl_pct_above should NOT match when P&L is below threshold."""
+        condition = StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"unrealized_pnl_pct": 2.0}) is False
+
+    def test_evaluate_condition_unrealized_pnl_below_matches(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """unrealized_pnl_pct_below should match when P&L is under threshold."""
+        condition = StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_below=-2.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"unrealized_pnl_pct": -3.5}) is True
+
+    def test_evaluate_condition_unrealized_pnl_below_no_match(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """unrealized_pnl_pct_below should NOT match when P&L is above threshold."""
+        condition = StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_below=-2.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"unrealized_pnl_pct": -1.0}) is False
+
+    def test_evaluate_condition_holding_days_above_matches(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """holding_days_above should match when position held longer than threshold."""
+        condition = StockCondition(holding_days_above=5)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"holding_days": 7}) is True
+
+    def test_evaluate_condition_holding_days_above_no_match(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """holding_days_above should NOT match when position held shorter."""
+        condition = StockCondition(holding_days_above=5)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"holding_days": 3}) is False
+
+    def test_evaluate_condition_holding_days_below_matches(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """holding_days_below should match when position held fewer days."""
+        condition = StockCondition(holding_days_below=3)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"holding_days": 1}) is True
+
+    def test_evaluate_condition_holding_days_below_no_match(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """holding_days_below should NOT match when held more days."""
+        condition = StockCondition(holding_days_below=3)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"holding_days": 5}) is False
+
+    def test_combined_pnl_and_holding_days(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        """Combined position-aware conditions should AND-evaluate correctly."""
+        condition = StockCondition(
+            unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0,
+            holding_days_above=5,
+        )
+        # Both met → match
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(
+            condition,
+            {"unrealized_pnl_pct": 4.5, "holding_days": 7},
+        ) is True
+        # Only pnl met → no match
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(
+            condition,
+            {"unrealized_pnl_pct": 4.5, "holding_days": 3},
+        ) is False
+
+    def test_missing_unrealized_pnl_does_not_match(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """Missing unrealized_pnl_pct key should not match the condition."""
+        condition = StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {}) is False
+
+    def test_missing_holding_days_does_not_match(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """Missing holding_days key should not match the condition."""
+        condition = StockCondition(holding_days_above=5)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {}) is False
+
+    def test_match_details_includes_position_fields(
+        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
+    ) -> None:
+        """match_details should include position fields when condition specifies them."""
+        pb = _playbook(
+            scenarios=[
+                StockScenario(
+                    condition=StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0),
+                    action=ScenarioAction.SELL,
+                    confidence=90,
+                    rationale="Take profit",
+                )
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.evaluate(
+            pb,
+            "005930",
+            {"unrealized_pnl_pct": 5.0},
+            {},
+        )
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.SELL
+        assert "unrealized_pnl_pct" in result.match_details
+        assert result.match_details["unrealized_pnl_pct"] == 5.0
+
+    def test_position_conditions_parse_from_planner(self) -> None:
+        """StockCondition should accept and store new fields from JSON parsing."""
+        condition = StockCondition(
+            unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0,
+            unrealized_pnl_pct_below=None,
+            holding_days_above=5,
+            holding_days_below=None,
+        )
+        assert condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_above == 3.0
+        assert condition.holding_days_above == 5
+        assert condition.has_any_condition() is True

tests/test_smart_scanner.py

@@ -350,6 +350,42 @@ class TestSmartVolatilityScanner:
         assert [c.stock_code for c in candidates] == ["ABCD"]
 
 
+class TestImpliedRSIFormula:
+    """Test the implied_rsi formula in SmartVolatilityScanner (issue #181)."""
+
+    def test_neutral_change_gives_neutral_rsi(self) -> None:
+        """0% change → implied_rsi = 50 (neutral)."""
+        # formula: 50 + (change_rate * 2.0)
+        rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (0.0 * 2.0)))
+        assert rsi == 50.0
+
+    def test_10pct_change_gives_rsi_70(self) -> None:
+        """10% upward change → implied_rsi = 70 (momentum signal)."""
+        rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (10.0 * 2.0)))
+        assert rsi == 70.0
+
+    def test_minus_10pct_gives_rsi_30(self) -> None:
+        """-10% change → implied_rsi = 30 (oversold signal)."""
+        rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (-10.0 * 2.0)))
+        assert rsi == 30.0
+
+    def test_saturation_at_25pct(self) -> None:
+        """Saturation occurs at >=25% change (not 12.5% as with old coefficient 4.0)."""
+        rsi_12pct = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (12.5 * 2.0)))
+        rsi_25pct = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (25.0 * 2.0)))
+        rsi_30pct = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (30.0 * 2.0)))
+        # At 12.5% change: RSI = 75 (not 100, unlike old formula)
+        assert rsi_12pct == 75.0
+        # At 25%+ saturation
+        assert rsi_25pct == 100.0
+        assert rsi_30pct == 100.0  # Capped
+
+    def test_negative_saturation(self) -> None:
+        """Saturation at -25% gives RSI = 0."""
+        rsi = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 + (-25.0 * 2.0)))
+        assert rsi == 0.0
+
+
 class TestRSICalculation:
     """Test RSI calculation in VolatilityAnalyzer."""
 

tests/test_telegram_commands.py

@@ -876,6 +876,54 @@ class TestGetUpdates:
 
             assert updates == []
 
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_get_updates_409_stops_polling(self) -> None:
+        """409 Conflict response stops the poller (_running = False) and returns empty list."""
+        client = TelegramClient(bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True)
+        handler = TelegramCommandHandler(client)
+        handler._running = True  # simulate active poller
+
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 409
+        mock_resp.text = AsyncMock(
+            return_value='{"ok":false,"error_code":409,"description":"Conflict"}'
+        )
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        with patch("aiohttp.ClientSession.post", return_value=mock_resp):
+            updates = await handler._get_updates()
+
+        assert updates == []
+        assert handler._running is False  # poller stopped
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_poll_loop_exits_after_409(self) -> None:
+        """_poll_loop exits naturally after _running is set to False by a 409 response."""
+        import asyncio as _asyncio
+
+        client = TelegramClient(bot_token="123:abc", chat_id="456", enabled=True)
+        handler = TelegramCommandHandler(client)
+
+        call_count = 0
+
+        async def mock_get_updates_409() -> list[dict]:
+            nonlocal call_count
+            call_count += 1
+            # Simulate 409 stopping the poller
+            handler._running = False
+            return []
+
+        handler._get_updates = mock_get_updates_409  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+        handler._running = True
+        task = _asyncio.create_task(handler._poll_loop())
+        await _asyncio.wait_for(task, timeout=2.0)
+
+        # _get_updates called exactly once, then loop exited
+        assert call_count == 1
+        assert handler._running is False
+
 
 class TestCommandWithArgs:
     """Test register_command_with_args and argument dispatch."""