fix: BULLISH confidence 임계값 75로 복원 (#205)

CLAUDE.md 규칙 개정에 따라 BULLISH 시장은 75로 유지.
시장 전망별 임계값: BEARISH=90, NEUTRAL=80, BULLISH=75.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/broker/kis_api.py

@@ -285,7 +285,10 @@ class KISBroker:
         await self._rate_limiter.acquire()
         session = self._get_session()
 
-        headers = await self._auth_headers("VTTC8434R")  # 모의투자 잔고조회
+        # TR_ID: 실전 TTTC8434R, 모의 VTTC8434R
+        # Source: 한국투자증권 오픈API 전체문서 (20260221) — '국내주식 잔고조회' 시트
+        tr_id = "TTTC8434R" if self._settings.MODE == "live" else "VTTC8434R"
+        headers = await self._auth_headers(tr_id)
         params = {
             "CANO": self._account_no,
             "ACNT_PRDT_CD": self._product_cd,
@@ -330,7 +333,13 @@ class KISBroker:
         await self._rate_limiter.acquire()
         session = self._get_session()
 
-        tr_id = "VTTC0802U" if order_type == "BUY" else "VTTC0801U"
+        # TR_ID: 실전 BUY=TTTC0012U SELL=TTTC0011U, 모의 BUY=VTTC0012U SELL=VTTC0011U
+        # Source: 한국투자증권 오픈API 전체문서 (20260221) — '주식주문(현금)' 시트
+        # ※ TTTC0802U/VTTC0802U는 미수매수(증거금40% 계좌 전용) — 현금주문에 사용 금지
+        if self._settings.MODE == "live":
+            tr_id = "TTTC0012U" if order_type == "BUY" else "TTTC0011U"
+        else:
+            tr_id = "VTTC0012U" if order_type == "BUY" else "VTTC0011U"
 
         # KRX requires limit orders to be rounded down to the tick unit.
         # ORD_DVSN: "00"=지정가, "01"=시장가

src/broker/overseas.py

@@ -175,8 +175,12 @@ class OverseasBroker:
         await self._broker._rate_limiter.acquire()
         session = self._broker._get_session()
 
-        # Virtual trading TR_ID for overseas balance inquiry
-        headers = await self._broker._auth_headers("VTTS3012R")
+        # TR_ID: 실전 TTTS3012R, 모의 VTTS3012R
+        # Source: 한국투자증권 오픈API 전체문서 (20260221) — '해외주식 잔고조회' 시트
+        balance_tr_id = (
+            "TTTS3012R" if self._broker._settings.MODE == "live" else "VTTS3012R"
+        )
+        headers = await self._broker._auth_headers(balance_tr_id)
         params = {
             "CANO": self._broker._account_no,
             "ACNT_PRDT_CD": self._broker._product_cd,
@@ -229,10 +233,12 @@ class OverseasBroker:
         await self._broker._rate_limiter.acquire()
         session = self._broker._get_session()
 
-        # Virtual trading TR_IDs for overseas orders
+        # TR_ID: 실전 BUY=TTTT1002U SELL=TTTT1006U, 모의 BUY=VTTT1002U SELL=VTTT1001U
         # Source: 한국투자증권 오픈API 전체문서 (20260221) — '해외주식 주문' 시트
-        # VTTT1002U: 모의투자 미국 매수, VTTT1001U: 모의투자 미국 매도
-        tr_id = "VTTT1002U" if order_type == "BUY" else "VTTT1001U"
+        if self._broker._settings.MODE == "live":
+            tr_id = "TTTT1002U" if order_type == "BUY" else "TTTT1006U"
+        else:
+            tr_id = "VTTT1002U" if order_type == "BUY" else "VTTT1001U"
 
         body = {
             "CANO": self._broker._account_no,

src/config.py

@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ class Settings(BaseSettings):
     KIS_APP_KEY: str
     KIS_APP_SECRET: str
     KIS_ACCOUNT_NO: str  # format: "XXXXXXXX-XX"
-    KIS_BASE_URL: str = "https://openapivts.koreainvestment.com:9443"
+    KIS_BASE_URL: str = "https://openapivts.koreainvestment.com:29443"
 
     # Google Gemini
     GEMINI_API_KEY: str

src/main.py

@@ -340,7 +340,13 @@ async def trading_cycle(
         purchase_total = safe_float(balance_info.get("frcr_buy_amt_smtl", "0") or "0")
 
         # Paper mode fallback: VTS overseas balance API often fails for many accounts.
-        if total_cash <= 0 and settings and settings.PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH > 0:
+        # Only activate in paper mode — live mode must use real balance from KIS.
+        if (
+            total_cash <= 0
+            and settings
+            and settings.MODE == "paper"
+            and settings.PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH > 0
+        ):
             logger.debug(
                 "Overseas cash balance is 0 for %s; using paper fallback %.2f USD",
                 market.exchange_code,
@@ -1041,11 +1047,12 @@ async def run_daily_session(
                 balance_info.get("frcr_buy_amt_smtl", "0") or "0"
             )
             # Paper mode fallback: VTS overseas balance API often fails for many accounts.
-            if total_cash <= 0 and settings.PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH > 0:
-                total_cash = settings.PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH
-
-            # VTS overseas balance API often returns 0; use paper fallback.
-            if total_cash <= 0 and settings.PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH > 0:
+            # Only activate in paper mode — live mode must use real balance from KIS.
+            if (
+                total_cash <= 0
+                and settings.MODE == "paper"
+                and settings.PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH > 0
+            ):
                 total_cash = settings.PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH
 
         # Calculate daily P&L %
@@ -1979,6 +1986,10 @@ async def run(settings: Settings) -> None:
                     )
                 except CircuitBreakerTripped:
                     logger.critical("Circuit breaker tripped — shutting down")
+                    await telegram.notify_circuit_breaker(
+                        pnl_pct=settings.CIRCUIT_BREAKER_PCT,
+                        threshold=settings.CIRCUIT_BREAKER_PCT,
+                    )
                     shutdown.set()
                     break
                 except Exception as exc:
@@ -2296,6 +2307,8 @@ async def run(settings: Settings) -> None:
                 except TimeoutError:
                     pass  # Normal — timeout means it's time for next cycle
     finally:
+        # Notify shutdown before closing resources
+        await telegram.notify_system_shutdown("Normal shutdown")
         # Clean up resources
         await command_handler.stop_polling()
         await broker.close()

tests/test_broker.py

@@ -572,4 +572,156 @@ class TestSendOrderTickRounding:
         order_call = mock_post.call_args_list[1]
         body = order_call[1].get("json", {})
         assert body["ORD_DVSN"] == "01"
-        assert body["ORD_UNPR"] == "0"
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# TR_ID live/paper branching (issues #201, #202, #203)
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+class TestTRIDBranchingDomestic:
+    """get_balance and send_order must use correct TR_ID for live vs paper mode."""
+
+    def _make_broker(self, settings, mode: str) -> KISBroker:
+        from src.config import Settings
+
+        s = Settings(
+            KIS_APP_KEY=settings.KIS_APP_KEY,
+            KIS_APP_SECRET=settings.KIS_APP_SECRET,
+            KIS_ACCOUNT_NO=settings.KIS_ACCOUNT_NO,
+            GEMINI_API_KEY=settings.GEMINI_API_KEY,
+            DB_PATH=":memory:",
+            ENABLED_MARKETS="KR",
+            MODE=mode,
+        )
+        b = KISBroker(s)
+        b._access_token = "tok"
+        b._token_expires_at = float("inf")
+        b._rate_limiter.acquire = AsyncMock()
+        return b
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_get_balance_paper_uses_vttc8434r(self, settings) -> None:
+        broker = self._make_broker(settings, "paper")
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(
+            return_value={"output1": [], "output2": {}}
+        )
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        with patch("aiohttp.ClientSession.get", return_value=mock_resp) as mock_get:
+            await broker.get_balance()
+
+        headers = mock_get.call_args[1].get("headers", {})
+        assert headers["tr_id"] == "VTTC8434R"
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_get_balance_live_uses_tttc8434r(self, settings) -> None:
+        broker = self._make_broker(settings, "live")
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(
+            return_value={"output1": [], "output2": {}}
+        )
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        with patch("aiohttp.ClientSession.get", return_value=mock_resp) as mock_get:
+            await broker.get_balance()
+
+        headers = mock_get.call_args[1].get("headers", {})
+        assert headers["tr_id"] == "TTTC8434R"
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_send_order_buy_paper_uses_vttc0012u(self, settings) -> None:
+        broker = self._make_broker(settings, "paper")
+        mock_hash = AsyncMock()
+        mock_hash.status = 200
+        mock_hash.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"HASH": "h"})
+        mock_hash.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_hash)
+        mock_hash.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_order = AsyncMock()
+        mock_order.status = 200
+        mock_order.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0"})
+        mock_order.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_order)
+        mock_order.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        with patch(
+            "aiohttp.ClientSession.post", side_effect=[mock_hash, mock_order]
+        ) as mock_post:
+            await broker.send_order("005930", "BUY", 1)
+
+        order_headers = mock_post.call_args_list[1][1].get("headers", {})
+        assert order_headers["tr_id"] == "VTTC0012U"
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_send_order_buy_live_uses_tttc0012u(self, settings) -> None:
+        broker = self._make_broker(settings, "live")
+        mock_hash = AsyncMock()
+        mock_hash.status = 200
+        mock_hash.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"HASH": "h"})
+        mock_hash.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_hash)
+        mock_hash.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_order = AsyncMock()
+        mock_order.status = 200
+        mock_order.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0"})
+        mock_order.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_order)
+        mock_order.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        with patch(
+            "aiohttp.ClientSession.post", side_effect=[mock_hash, mock_order]
+        ) as mock_post:
+            await broker.send_order("005930", "BUY", 1)
+
+        order_headers = mock_post.call_args_list[1][1].get("headers", {})
+        assert order_headers["tr_id"] == "TTTC0012U"
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_send_order_sell_paper_uses_vttc0011u(self, settings) -> None:
+        broker = self._make_broker(settings, "paper")
+        mock_hash = AsyncMock()
+        mock_hash.status = 200
+        mock_hash.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"HASH": "h"})
+        mock_hash.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_hash)
+        mock_hash.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_order = AsyncMock()
+        mock_order.status = 200
+        mock_order.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0"})
+        mock_order.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_order)
+        mock_order.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        with patch(
+            "aiohttp.ClientSession.post", side_effect=[mock_hash, mock_order]
+        ) as mock_post:
+            await broker.send_order("005930", "SELL", 1)
+
+        order_headers = mock_post.call_args_list[1][1].get("headers", {})
+        assert order_headers["tr_id"] == "VTTC0011U"
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_send_order_sell_live_uses_tttc0011u(self, settings) -> None:
+        broker = self._make_broker(settings, "live")
+        mock_hash = AsyncMock()
+        mock_hash.status = 200
+        mock_hash.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"HASH": "h"})
+        mock_hash.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_hash)
+        mock_hash.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_order = AsyncMock()
+        mock_order.status = 200
+        mock_order.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0"})
+        mock_order.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_order)
+        mock_order.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        with patch(
+            "aiohttp.ClientSession.post", side_effect=[mock_hash, mock_order]
+        ) as mock_post:
+            await broker.send_order("005930", "SELL", 1)
+
+        order_headers = mock_post.call_args_list[1][1].get("headers", {})
+        assert order_headers["tr_id"] == "TTTC0011U"

tests/test_overseas_broker.py

@@ -640,4 +640,176 @@ class TestPaperOverseasCash:
             GEMINI_API_KEY="g",
         )
         assert settings.PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH == 0.0
-        del os.environ["PAPER_OVERSEAS_CASH"]
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# TR_ID live/paper branching — overseas (issues #201, #203)
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+def _make_overseas_broker_with_mode(mode: str) -> OverseasBroker:
+    s = Settings(
+        KIS_APP_KEY="k",
+        KIS_APP_SECRET="s",
+        KIS_ACCOUNT_NO="12345678-01",
+        GEMINI_API_KEY="g",
+        DB_PATH=":memory:",
+        MODE=mode,
+    )
+    kis = KISBroker(s)
+    kis._access_token = "tok"
+    kis._token_expires_at = float("inf")
+    kis._rate_limiter.acquire = AsyncMock()
+    return OverseasBroker(kis)
+
+
+class TestOverseasTRIDBranching:
+    """get_overseas_balance and send_overseas_order must use correct TR_ID."""
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_get_overseas_balance_paper_uses_vtts3012r(self) -> None:
+        broker = _make_overseas_broker_with_mode("paper")
+        captured: list[str] = []
+
+        async def mock_auth_headers(tr_id: str) -> dict:
+            captured.append(tr_id)
+            return {"tr_id": tr_id, "authorization": "Bearer tok"}
+
+        broker._broker._auth_headers = mock_auth_headers  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"output1": [], "output2": []})
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_session = MagicMock()
+        mock_session.get = MagicMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        broker._broker._get_session = MagicMock(return_value=mock_session)
+
+        await broker.get_overseas_balance("NASD")
+        assert "VTTS3012R" in captured
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_get_overseas_balance_live_uses_ttts3012r(self) -> None:
+        broker = _make_overseas_broker_with_mode("live")
+        captured: list[str] = []
+
+        async def mock_auth_headers(tr_id: str) -> dict:
+            captured.append(tr_id)
+            return {"tr_id": tr_id, "authorization": "Bearer tok"}
+
+        broker._broker._auth_headers = mock_auth_headers  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"output1": [], "output2": []})
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_session = MagicMock()
+        mock_session.get = MagicMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        broker._broker._get_session = MagicMock(return_value=mock_session)
+
+        await broker.get_overseas_balance("NASD")
+        assert "TTTS3012R" in captured
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_send_overseas_order_buy_paper_uses_vttt1002u(self) -> None:
+        broker = _make_overseas_broker_with_mode("paper")
+        captured: list[str] = []
+
+        async def mock_auth_headers(tr_id: str) -> dict:
+            captured.append(tr_id)
+            return {"tr_id": tr_id, "authorization": "Bearer tok"}
+
+        broker._broker._auth_headers = mock_auth_headers  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+        broker._broker._get_hash_key = AsyncMock(return_value="h")  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0", "msg1": "OK"})
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_session = MagicMock()
+        mock_session.post = MagicMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        broker._broker._get_session = MagicMock(return_value=mock_session)
+
+        await broker.send_overseas_order("NASD", "AAPL", "BUY", 1)
+        assert "VTTT1002U" in captured
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_send_overseas_order_buy_live_uses_tttt1002u(self) -> None:
+        broker = _make_overseas_broker_with_mode("live")
+        captured: list[str] = []
+
+        async def mock_auth_headers(tr_id: str) -> dict:
+            captured.append(tr_id)
+            return {"tr_id": tr_id, "authorization": "Bearer tok"}
+
+        broker._broker._auth_headers = mock_auth_headers  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+        broker._broker._get_hash_key = AsyncMock(return_value="h")  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0", "msg1": "OK"})
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_session = MagicMock()
+        mock_session.post = MagicMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        broker._broker._get_session = MagicMock(return_value=mock_session)
+
+        await broker.send_overseas_order("NASD", "AAPL", "BUY", 1)
+        assert "TTTT1002U" in captured
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_send_overseas_order_sell_paper_uses_vttt1001u(self) -> None:
+        broker = _make_overseas_broker_with_mode("paper")
+        captured: list[str] = []
+
+        async def mock_auth_headers(tr_id: str) -> dict:
+            captured.append(tr_id)
+            return {"tr_id": tr_id, "authorization": "Bearer tok"}
+
+        broker._broker._auth_headers = mock_auth_headers  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+        broker._broker._get_hash_key = AsyncMock(return_value="h")  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0", "msg1": "OK"})
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_session = MagicMock()
+        mock_session.post = MagicMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        broker._broker._get_session = MagicMock(return_value=mock_session)
+
+        await broker.send_overseas_order("NASD", "AAPL", "SELL", 1)
+        assert "VTTT1001U" in captured
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_send_overseas_order_sell_live_uses_tttt1006u(self) -> None:
+        broker = _make_overseas_broker_with_mode("live")
+        captured: list[str] = []
+
+        async def mock_auth_headers(tr_id: str) -> dict:
+            captured.append(tr_id)
+            return {"tr_id": tr_id, "authorization": "Bearer tok"}
+
+        broker._broker._auth_headers = mock_auth_headers  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+        broker._broker._get_hash_key = AsyncMock(return_value="h")  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+        mock_resp = AsyncMock()
+        mock_resp.status = 200
+        mock_resp.json = AsyncMock(return_value={"rt_cd": "0", "msg1": "OK"})
+        mock_resp.__aenter__ = AsyncMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        mock_resp.__aexit__ = AsyncMock(return_value=False)
+
+        mock_session = MagicMock()
+        mock_session.post = MagicMock(return_value=mock_resp)
+        broker._broker._get_session = MagicMock(return_value=mock_session)
+
+        await broker.send_overseas_order("NASD", "AAPL", "SELL", 1)
+        assert "TTTT1006U" in captured