Files
The-Ouroboros/src/strategy/pre_market_planner.py

621 lines
23 KiB
Python

"""Pre-market planner — generates DayPlaybook via Gemini before market open.
One Gemini API call per market per day. Candidates come from SmartVolatilityScanner.
On failure, returns a smart rule-based fallback playbook that uses scanner signals
(momentum/oversold) to generate BUY conditions, avoiding the all-HOLD problem.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import logging
from datetime import date, timedelta
from typing import Any
from src.analysis.smart_scanner import ScanCandidate
from src.brain.context_selector import ContextSelector, DecisionType
from src.brain.gemini_client import GeminiClient
from src.config import Settings
from src.context.store import ContextLayer, ContextStore
from src.strategy.models import (
CrossMarketContext,
DayPlaybook,
GlobalRule,
MarketOutlook,
ScenarioAction,
StockCondition,
StockPlaybook,
StockScenario,
)
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
# Mapping from string to MarketOutlook enum
_OUTLOOK_MAP: dict[str, MarketOutlook] = {
"bullish": MarketOutlook.BULLISH,
"neutral_to_bullish": MarketOutlook.NEUTRAL_TO_BULLISH,
"neutral": MarketOutlook.NEUTRAL,
"neutral_to_bearish": MarketOutlook.NEUTRAL_TO_BEARISH,
"bearish": MarketOutlook.BEARISH,
}
_ACTION_MAP: dict[str, ScenarioAction] = {
"BUY": ScenarioAction.BUY,
"SELL": ScenarioAction.SELL,
"HOLD": ScenarioAction.HOLD,
"REDUCE_ALL": ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL,
}
class PreMarketPlanner:
"""Generates a DayPlaybook by calling Gemini once before market open.
Flow:
1. Collect strategic context (L5-L7) + cross-market context
2. Build a structured prompt with scan candidates
3. Call Gemini for JSON scenario generation
4. Parse and validate response into DayPlaybook
5. On failure → defensive playbook (HOLD everything)
"""
def __init__(
self,
gemini_client: GeminiClient,
context_store: ContextStore,
context_selector: ContextSelector,
settings: Settings,
) -> None:
self._gemini = gemini_client
self._context_store = context_store
self._context_selector = context_selector
self._settings = settings
async def generate_playbook(
self,
market: str,
candidates: list[ScanCandidate],
today: date | None = None,
current_holdings: list[dict] | None = None,
) -> DayPlaybook:
"""Generate a DayPlaybook for a market using Gemini.
Args:
market: Market code ("KR" or "US")
candidates: Stock candidates from SmartVolatilityScanner
today: Override date (defaults to date.today()). Use market-local date.
current_holdings: Currently held positions with entry_price and unrealized_pnl_pct.
Each dict: {"stock_code": str, "name": str, "qty": int,
"entry_price": float, "unrealized_pnl_pct": float,
"holding_days": int}
Returns:
DayPlaybook with scenarios. Empty/defensive if no candidates or failure.
"""
if today is None:
today = date.today()
if not candidates:
logger.info("No candidates for %s — returning empty playbook", market)
return self._empty_playbook(today, market)
try:
# 1. Gather context
context_data = self._gather_context()
self_market_scorecard = self.build_self_market_scorecard(market, today)
cross_market = self.build_cross_market_context(market, today)
# 2. Build prompt
prompt = self._build_prompt(
market,
candidates,
context_data,
self_market_scorecard,
cross_market,
current_holdings=current_holdings,
)
# 3. Call Gemini
market_data = {
"stock_code": "PLANNER",
"current_price": 0,
"prompt_override": prompt,
}
decision = await self._gemini.decide(market_data)
# 4. Parse response
playbook = self._parse_response(
decision.rationale, today, market, candidates, cross_market,
current_holdings=current_holdings,
)
playbook_with_tokens = playbook.model_copy(
update={"token_count": decision.token_count}
)
logger.info(
"Generated playbook for %s: %d stocks, %d scenarios, %d tokens",
market,
playbook_with_tokens.stock_count,
playbook_with_tokens.scenario_count,
playbook_with_tokens.token_count,
)
return playbook_with_tokens
except Exception:
logger.exception("Playbook generation failed for %s", market)
if self._settings.DEFENSIVE_PLAYBOOK_ON_FAILURE:
return self._smart_fallback_playbook(today, market, candidates, self._settings)
return self._empty_playbook(today, market)
def build_cross_market_context(
self, target_market: str, today: date | None = None,
) -> CrossMarketContext | None:
"""Build cross-market context from the other market's L6 data.
KR planner → reads US scorecard from previous night.
US planner → reads KR scorecard from today.
Args:
target_market: The market being planned ("KR" or "US")
today: Override date (defaults to date.today()). Use market-local date.
"""
other_market = "US" if target_market == "KR" else "KR"
if today is None:
today = date.today()
timeframe_date = today - timedelta(days=1) if target_market == "KR" else today
timeframe = timeframe_date.isoformat()
scorecard_key = f"scorecard_{other_market}"
scorecard_data = self._context_store.get_context(
ContextLayer.L6_DAILY, timeframe, scorecard_key
)
if scorecard_data is None:
logger.debug("No cross-market scorecard found for %s", other_market)
return None
if isinstance(scorecard_data, str):
try:
scorecard_data = json.loads(scorecard_data)
except (json.JSONDecodeError, TypeError):
return None
if not isinstance(scorecard_data, dict):
return None
return CrossMarketContext(
market=other_market,
date=timeframe,
total_pnl=float(scorecard_data.get("total_pnl", 0.0)),
win_rate=float(scorecard_data.get("win_rate", 0.0)),
index_change_pct=float(scorecard_data.get("index_change_pct", 0.0)),
key_events=scorecard_data.get("key_events", []),
lessons=scorecard_data.get("lessons", []),
)
def build_self_market_scorecard(
self, market: str, today: date | None = None,
) -> dict[str, Any] | None:
"""Build previous-day scorecard for the same market."""
if today is None:
today = date.today()
timeframe = (today - timedelta(days=1)).isoformat()
scorecard_key = f"scorecard_{market}"
scorecard_data = self._context_store.get_context(
ContextLayer.L6_DAILY, timeframe, scorecard_key
)
if scorecard_data is None:
return None
if isinstance(scorecard_data, str):
try:
scorecard_data = json.loads(scorecard_data)
except (json.JSONDecodeError, TypeError):
return None
if not isinstance(scorecard_data, dict):
return None
return {
"date": timeframe,
"total_pnl": float(scorecard_data.get("total_pnl", 0.0)),
"win_rate": float(scorecard_data.get("win_rate", 0.0)),
"lessons": scorecard_data.get("lessons", []),
}
def _gather_context(self) -> dict[str, Any]:
"""Gather strategic context using ContextSelector."""
layers = self._context_selector.select_layers(
decision_type=DecisionType.STRATEGIC,
include_realtime=True,
)
return self._context_selector.get_context_data(layers, max_items_per_layer=10)
def _build_prompt(
self,
market: str,
candidates: list[ScanCandidate],
context_data: dict[str, Any],
self_market_scorecard: dict[str, Any] | None,
cross_market: CrossMarketContext | None,
current_holdings: list[dict] | None = None,
) -> str:
"""Build a structured prompt for Gemini to generate scenario JSON."""
max_scenarios = self._settings.MAX_SCENARIOS_PER_STOCK
candidates_text = "\n".join(
f" - {c.stock_code} ({c.name}): price={c.price}, "
f"RSI={c.rsi:.1f}, volume_ratio={c.volume_ratio:.1f}, "
f"signal={c.signal}, score={c.score:.1f}"
for c in candidates
)
holdings_text = ""
if current_holdings:
lines = []
for h in current_holdings:
code = h.get("stock_code", "")
name = h.get("name", "")
qty = h.get("qty", 0)
entry_price = h.get("entry_price", 0.0)
pnl_pct = h.get("unrealized_pnl_pct", 0.0)
holding_days = h.get("holding_days", 0)
lines.append(
f" - {code} ({name}): {qty}주 @ {entry_price:,.0f}, "
f"미실현손익 {pnl_pct:+.2f}%, 보유 {holding_days}"
)
holdings_text = (
"\n## Current Holdings (보유 중 — SELL/HOLD 전략 고려 필요)\n"
+ "\n".join(lines)
+ "\n"
)
cross_market_text = ""
if cross_market:
cross_market_text = (
f"\n## Other Market ({cross_market.market}) Summary\n"
f"- P&L: {cross_market.total_pnl:+.2f}%\n"
f"- Win Rate: {cross_market.win_rate:.0f}%\n"
f"- Index Change: {cross_market.index_change_pct:+.2f}%\n"
)
if cross_market.lessons:
cross_market_text += f"- Lessons: {'; '.join(cross_market.lessons[:3])}\n"
self_market_text = ""
if self_market_scorecard:
self_market_text = (
f"\n## My Market Previous Day ({market})\n"
f"- Date: {self_market_scorecard['date']}\n"
f"- P&L: {self_market_scorecard['total_pnl']:+.2f}%\n"
f"- Win Rate: {self_market_scorecard['win_rate']:.0f}%\n"
)
lessons = self_market_scorecard.get("lessons", [])
if lessons:
self_market_text += f"- Lessons: {'; '.join(lessons[:3])}\n"
context_text = ""
if context_data:
context_text = "\n## Strategic Context\n"
for layer_name, layer_data in context_data.items():
if layer_data:
context_text += f"### {layer_name}\n"
for key, value in list(layer_data.items())[:5]:
context_text += f" - {key}: {value}\n"
holdings_instruction = ""
if current_holdings:
holding_codes = [h.get("stock_code", "") for h in current_holdings]
holdings_instruction = (
f"- Also include SELL/HOLD scenarios for held stocks: "
f"{', '.join(holding_codes)} "
f"(even if not in candidates list)\n"
)
return (
f"You are a pre-market trading strategist for the {market} market.\n"
f"Generate structured trading scenarios for today.\n\n"
f"## Candidates (from volatility scanner)\n{candidates_text}\n"
f"{holdings_text}"
f"{self_market_text}"
f"{cross_market_text}"
f"{context_text}\n"
f"## Instructions\n"
f"Return a JSON object with this exact structure:\n"
f'{{\n'
f' "market_outlook": "bullish|neutral_to_bullish|neutral'
f'|neutral_to_bearish|bearish",\n'
f' "global_rules": [\n'
f' {{"condition": "portfolio_pnl_pct < -2.0",'
f' "action": "REDUCE_ALL", "rationale": "..."}}\n'
f' ],\n'
f' "stocks": [\n'
f' {{\n'
f' "stock_code": "...",\n'
f' "scenarios": [\n'
f' {{\n'
f' "condition": {{"rsi_below": 30, "volume_ratio_above": 2.0,'
f' "unrealized_pnl_pct_above": 3.0, "holding_days_above": 5}},\n'
f' "action": "BUY|SELL|HOLD",\n'
f' "confidence": 85,\n'
f' "allocation_pct": 10.0,\n'
f' "stop_loss_pct": -2.0,\n'
f' "take_profit_pct": 3.0,\n'
f' "rationale": "..."\n'
f' }}\n'
f' ]\n'
f' }}\n'
f' ]\n'
f'}}\n\n'
f"Rules:\n"
f"- Max {max_scenarios} scenarios per stock\n"
f"- Candidates list is the primary source for BUY candidates\n"
f"{holdings_instruction}"
f"- Confidence 0-100 (80+ for actionable trades)\n"
f"- stop_loss_pct must be <= 0, take_profit_pct must be >= 0\n"
f"- Return ONLY the JSON, no markdown fences or explanation\n"
)
def _parse_response(
self,
response_text: str,
today: date,
market: str,
candidates: list[ScanCandidate],
cross_market: CrossMarketContext | None,
current_holdings: list[dict] | None = None,
) -> DayPlaybook:
"""Parse Gemini's JSON response into a validated DayPlaybook."""
cleaned = self._extract_json(response_text)
data = json.loads(cleaned)
valid_codes = {c.stock_code for c in candidates}
# Holdings are also valid — AI may generate SELL/HOLD scenarios for them
if current_holdings:
for h in current_holdings:
code = h.get("stock_code", "")
if code:
valid_codes.add(code)
# Parse market outlook
outlook_str = data.get("market_outlook", "neutral")
market_outlook = _OUTLOOK_MAP.get(outlook_str, MarketOutlook.NEUTRAL)
# Parse global rules
global_rules = []
for rule_data in data.get("global_rules", []):
action_str = rule_data.get("action", "HOLD")
action = _ACTION_MAP.get(action_str, ScenarioAction.HOLD)
global_rules.append(
GlobalRule(
condition=rule_data.get("condition", ""),
action=action,
rationale=rule_data.get("rationale", ""),
)
)
# Parse stock playbooks
stock_playbooks = []
max_scenarios = self._settings.MAX_SCENARIOS_PER_STOCK
for stock_data in data.get("stocks", []):
code = stock_data.get("stock_code", "")
if code not in valid_codes:
logger.warning("Gemini returned unknown stock %s — skipping", code)
continue
scenarios = []
for sc_data in stock_data.get("scenarios", [])[:max_scenarios]:
scenario = self._parse_scenario(sc_data)
if scenario:
scenarios.append(scenario)
if scenarios:
stock_playbooks.append(
StockPlaybook(
stock_code=code,
scenarios=scenarios,
)
)
return DayPlaybook(
date=today,
market=market,
market_outlook=market_outlook,
global_rules=global_rules,
stock_playbooks=stock_playbooks,
cross_market=cross_market,
)
def _parse_scenario(self, sc_data: dict) -> StockScenario | None:
"""Parse a single scenario from JSON data. Returns None if invalid."""
try:
cond_data = sc_data.get("condition", {})
condition = StockCondition(
rsi_below=cond_data.get("rsi_below"),
rsi_above=cond_data.get("rsi_above"),
volume_ratio_above=cond_data.get("volume_ratio_above"),
volume_ratio_below=cond_data.get("volume_ratio_below"),
price_above=cond_data.get("price_above"),
price_below=cond_data.get("price_below"),
price_change_pct_above=cond_data.get("price_change_pct_above"),
price_change_pct_below=cond_data.get("price_change_pct_below"),
unrealized_pnl_pct_above=cond_data.get("unrealized_pnl_pct_above"),
unrealized_pnl_pct_below=cond_data.get("unrealized_pnl_pct_below"),
holding_days_above=cond_data.get("holding_days_above"),
holding_days_below=cond_data.get("holding_days_below"),
)
if not condition.has_any_condition():
logger.warning("Scenario has no conditions — skipping")
return None
action_str = sc_data.get("action", "HOLD")
action = _ACTION_MAP.get(action_str, ScenarioAction.HOLD)
return StockScenario(
condition=condition,
action=action,
confidence=int(sc_data.get("confidence", 50)),
allocation_pct=float(sc_data.get("allocation_pct", 10.0)),
stop_loss_pct=float(sc_data.get("stop_loss_pct", -2.0)),
take_profit_pct=float(sc_data.get("take_profit_pct", 3.0)),
rationale=sc_data.get("rationale", ""),
)
except (ValueError, TypeError) as e:
logger.warning("Failed to parse scenario: %s", e)
return None
@staticmethod
def _extract_json(text: str) -> str:
"""Extract JSON from response, stripping markdown fences if present."""
stripped = text.strip()
if stripped.startswith("```"):
# Remove first line (```json or ```) and last line (```)
lines = stripped.split("\n")
lines = lines[1:] # Remove opening fence
if lines and lines[-1].strip() == "```":
lines = lines[:-1]
stripped = "\n".join(lines)
return stripped.strip()
@staticmethod
def _empty_playbook(today: date, market: str) -> DayPlaybook:
"""Return an empty playbook (no stocks, no scenarios)."""
return DayPlaybook(
date=today,
market=market,
market_outlook=MarketOutlook.NEUTRAL,
stock_playbooks=[],
)
@staticmethod
def _defensive_playbook(
today: date,
market: str,
candidates: list[ScanCandidate],
) -> DayPlaybook:
"""Return a defensive playbook — HOLD everything with stop-loss ready."""
stock_playbooks = [
StockPlaybook(
stock_code=c.stock_code,
scenarios=[
StockScenario(
condition=StockCondition(price_change_pct_below=-3.0),
action=ScenarioAction.SELL,
confidence=90,
stop_loss_pct=-3.0,
rationale="Defensive stop-loss (planner failure)",
),
],
)
for c in candidates
]
return DayPlaybook(
date=today,
market=market,
market_outlook=MarketOutlook.NEUTRAL_TO_BEARISH,
default_action=ScenarioAction.HOLD,
stock_playbooks=stock_playbooks,
global_rules=[
GlobalRule(
condition="portfolio_pnl_pct < -2.0",
action=ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL,
rationale="Defensive: reduce on loss threshold",
),
],
)
@staticmethod
def _smart_fallback_playbook(
today: date,
market: str,
candidates: list[ScanCandidate],
settings: Settings,
) -> DayPlaybook:
"""Rule-based fallback playbook when Gemini is unavailable.
Uses scanner signals (RSI, volume_ratio) to generate meaningful BUY
conditions instead of the all-SELL defensive playbook. Candidates are
already pre-qualified by SmartVolatilityScanner, so we trust their
signals and build actionable scenarios from them.
Scenario logic per candidate:
- momentum signal: BUY when volume_ratio exceeds scanner threshold
- oversold signal: BUY when RSI is below oversold threshold
- always: SELL stop-loss at -3.0% as guard
"""
stock_playbooks = []
for c in candidates:
scenarios: list[StockScenario] = []
if c.signal == "momentum":
scenarios.append(
StockScenario(
condition=StockCondition(
volume_ratio_above=settings.VOL_MULTIPLIER,
),
action=ScenarioAction.BUY,
confidence=80,
allocation_pct=10.0,
stop_loss_pct=-3.0,
take_profit_pct=5.0,
rationale=(
f"Rule-based BUY: momentum signal, "
f"volume={c.volume_ratio:.1f}x (fallback planner)"
),
)
)
elif c.signal == "oversold":
scenarios.append(
StockScenario(
condition=StockCondition(
rsi_below=settings.RSI_OVERSOLD_THRESHOLD,
),
action=ScenarioAction.BUY,
confidence=80,
allocation_pct=10.0,
stop_loss_pct=-3.0,
take_profit_pct=5.0,
rationale=(
f"Rule-based BUY: oversold signal, "
f"RSI={c.rsi:.0f} (fallback planner)"
),
)
)
# Always add stop-loss guard
scenarios.append(
StockScenario(
condition=StockCondition(price_change_pct_below=-3.0),
action=ScenarioAction.SELL,
confidence=90,
stop_loss_pct=-3.0,
rationale="Rule-based stop-loss (fallback planner)",
)
)
stock_playbooks.append(
StockPlaybook(
stock_code=c.stock_code,
scenarios=scenarios,
)
)
logger.info(
"Smart fallback playbook for %s: %d stocks with rule-based BUY/SELL conditions",
market,
len(stock_playbooks),
)
return DayPlaybook(
date=today,
market=market,
market_outlook=MarketOutlook.NEUTRAL,
default_action=ScenarioAction.HOLD,
stock_playbooks=stock_playbooks,
global_rules=[
GlobalRule(
condition="portfolio_pnl_pct < -2.0",
action=ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL,
rationale="Defensive: reduce on loss threshold",
),
],
)