feat: implement local scenario engine for playbook execution (issue #80)

ScenarioEngine evaluates pre-defined playbook scenarios against real-time
market data with sub-100ms execution (zero API calls). Supports condition
AND-matching, global portfolio rules, and first-match-wins priority.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

tests/test_scenario_engine.py

@@ -0,0 +1,385 @@
+"""Tests for the local scenario engine."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from datetime import date
+
+import pytest
+
+from src.strategy.models import (
+    DayPlaybook,
+    GlobalRule,
+    ScenarioAction,
+    StockCondition,
+    StockPlaybook,
+    StockScenario,
+)
+from src.strategy.scenario_engine import ScenarioEngine, ScenarioMatch
+
+
+@pytest.fixture
+def engine() -> ScenarioEngine:
+    return ScenarioEngine()
+
+
+def _scenario(
+    rsi_below: float | None = None,
+    rsi_above: float | None = None,
+    volume_ratio_above: float | None = None,
+    action: ScenarioAction = ScenarioAction.BUY,
+    confidence: int = 85,
+    **kwargs,
+) -> StockScenario:
+    return StockScenario(
+        condition=StockCondition(
+            rsi_below=rsi_below,
+            rsi_above=rsi_above,
+            volume_ratio_above=volume_ratio_above,
+            **kwargs,
+        ),
+        action=action,
+        confidence=confidence,
+        rationale=f"Test scenario: {action.value}",
+    )
+
+
+def _playbook(
+    stock_code: str = "005930",
+    scenarios: list[StockScenario] | None = None,
+    global_rules: list[GlobalRule] | None = None,
+    default_action: ScenarioAction = ScenarioAction.HOLD,
+) -> DayPlaybook:
+    if scenarios is None:
+        scenarios = [_scenario(rsi_below=30.0)]
+    return DayPlaybook(
+        date=date(2026, 2, 7),
+        market="KR",
+        stock_playbooks=[StockPlaybook(stock_code=stock_code, scenarios=scenarios)],
+        global_rules=global_rules or [],
+        default_action=default_action,
+    )
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# evaluate_condition
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+class TestEvaluateCondition:
+    def test_rsi_below_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_below=30.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 25.0})
+
+    def test_rsi_below_no_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_below=30.0)
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 35.0})
+
+    def test_rsi_above_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_above=70.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 75.0})
+
+    def test_rsi_above_no_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_above=70.0)
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 65.0})
+
+    def test_volume_ratio_above_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(volume_ratio_above=3.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"volume_ratio": 4.5})
+
+    def test_volume_ratio_below_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(volume_ratio_below=1.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"volume_ratio": 0.5})
+
+    def test_price_above_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(price_above=50000)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"current_price": 55000})
+
+    def test_price_below_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(price_below=50000)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"current_price": 45000})
+
+    def test_price_change_pct_above_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(price_change_pct_above=2.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"price_change_pct": 3.5})
+
+    def test_price_change_pct_below_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(price_change_pct_below=-3.0)
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"price_change_pct": -4.0})
+
+    def test_multiple_conditions_and_logic(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_below=30.0, volume_ratio_above=3.0)
+        # Both met
+        assert engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 25.0, "volume_ratio": 4.0})
+        # Only RSI met
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 25.0, "volume_ratio": 2.0})
+        # Only volume met
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 35.0, "volume_ratio": 4.0})
+        # Neither met
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 35.0, "volume_ratio": 2.0})
+
+    def test_empty_condition_returns_false(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition()
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 25.0})
+
+    def test_missing_data_returns_false(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_below=30.0)
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {})
+
+    def test_none_data_returns_false(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_below=30.0)
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": None})
+
+    def test_boundary_value_not_matched(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        """rsi_below=30 should NOT match rsi=30 (strict less than)."""
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_below=30.0)
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 30.0})
+
+    def test_boundary_value_above_not_matched(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        """rsi_above=70 should NOT match rsi=70 (strict greater than)."""
+        cond = StockCondition(rsi_above=70.0)
+        assert not engine.evaluate_condition(cond, {"rsi": 70.0})
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# check_global_rules
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+class TestCheckGlobalRules:
+    def test_no_rules(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(global_rules=[])
+        result = engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"portfolio_pnl_pct": -1.0})
+        assert result is None
+
+    def test_rule_triggered(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(
+                    condition="portfolio_pnl_pct < -2.0",
+                    action=ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL,
+                    rationale="Near circuit breaker",
+                ),
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"portfolio_pnl_pct": -2.5})
+        assert result is not None
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL
+
+    def test_rule_not_triggered(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(
+                    condition="portfolio_pnl_pct < -2.0",
+                    action=ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL,
+                ),
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"portfolio_pnl_pct": -1.0})
+        assert result is None
+
+    def test_first_rule_wins(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(condition="portfolio_pnl_pct < -2.0", action=ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL),
+                GlobalRule(condition="portfolio_pnl_pct < -1.0", action=ScenarioAction.HOLD),
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"portfolio_pnl_pct": -2.5})
+        assert result is not None
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL
+
+    def test_greater_than_operator(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(condition="volatility_index > 30", action=ScenarioAction.HOLD),
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"volatility_index": 35})
+        assert result is not None
+
+    def test_missing_field_not_triggered(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(condition="unknown_field < -2.0", action=ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL),
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"portfolio_pnl_pct": -5.0})
+        assert result is None
+
+    def test_invalid_condition_format(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(condition="bad format", action=ScenarioAction.HOLD),
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.check_global_rules(pb, {})
+        assert result is None
+
+    def test_le_operator(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(condition="portfolio_pnl_pct <= -2.0", action=ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL),
+            ]
+        )
+        assert engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"portfolio_pnl_pct": -2.0}) is not None
+        assert engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"portfolio_pnl_pct": -1.9}) is None
+
+    def test_ge_operator(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(condition="volatility >= 80.0", action=ScenarioAction.HOLD),
+            ]
+        )
+        assert engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"volatility": 80.0}) is not None
+        assert engine.check_global_rules(pb, {"volatility": 79.9}) is None
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# evaluate (full pipeline)
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+class TestEvaluate:
+    def test_scenario_match(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(scenarios=[_scenario(rsi_below=30.0)])
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "005930", {"rsi": 25.0}, {})
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.BUY
+        assert result.confidence == 85
+        assert result.matched_scenario is not None
+
+    def test_no_scenario_match_returns_default(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(scenarios=[_scenario(rsi_below=30.0)])
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "005930", {"rsi": 50.0}, {})
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.HOLD
+        assert result.confidence == 0
+        assert result.matched_scenario is None
+
+    def test_stock_not_in_playbook(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(stock_code="005930")
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "AAPL", {"rsi": 25.0}, {})
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.HOLD
+        assert result.confidence == 0
+
+    def test_global_rule_takes_priority(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            scenarios=[_scenario(rsi_below=30.0)],
+            global_rules=[
+                GlobalRule(
+                    condition="portfolio_pnl_pct < -2.0",
+                    action=ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL,
+                    rationale="Loss limit",
+                ),
+            ],
+        )
+        result = engine.evaluate(
+            pb,
+            "005930",
+            {"rsi": 25.0},  # Would match scenario
+            {"portfolio_pnl_pct": -2.5},  # But global rule triggers first
+        )
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.REDUCE_ALL
+        assert result.global_rule_triggered is not None
+        assert result.matched_scenario is None
+
+    def test_first_scenario_wins(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            scenarios=[
+                _scenario(rsi_below=30.0, action=ScenarioAction.BUY, confidence=90),
+                _scenario(rsi_below=25.0, action=ScenarioAction.BUY, confidence=95),
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "005930", {"rsi": 20.0}, {})
+        # Both match, but first wins
+        assert result.confidence == 90
+
+    def test_sell_scenario(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            scenarios=[
+                _scenario(rsi_above=75.0, action=ScenarioAction.SELL, confidence=80),
+            ]
+        )
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "005930", {"rsi": 80.0}, {})
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.SELL
+
+    def test_empty_playbook(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = DayPlaybook(date=date(2026, 2, 7), market="KR", stock_playbooks=[])
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "005930", {"rsi": 25.0}, {})
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.HOLD
+
+    def test_match_details_populated(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(scenarios=[_scenario(rsi_below=30.0, volume_ratio_above=2.0)])
+        result = engine.evaluate(
+            pb, "005930", {"rsi": 25.0, "volume_ratio": 3.0}, {}
+        )
+        assert result.match_details.get("rsi") == 25.0
+        assert result.match_details.get("volume_ratio") == 3.0
+
+    def test_custom_default_action(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            scenarios=[_scenario(rsi_below=10.0)],  # Very unlikely to match
+            default_action=ScenarioAction.SELL,
+        )
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "005930", {"rsi": 50.0}, {})
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.SELL
+
+    def test_multiple_stocks_in_playbook(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = DayPlaybook(
+            date=date(2026, 2, 7),
+            market="US",
+            stock_playbooks=[
+                StockPlaybook(
+                    stock_code="AAPL",
+                    scenarios=[_scenario(rsi_below=25.0, confidence=90)],
+                ),
+                StockPlaybook(
+                    stock_code="MSFT",
+                    scenarios=[_scenario(rsi_above=75.0, action=ScenarioAction.SELL, confidence=80)],
+                ),
+            ],
+        )
+        aapl = engine.evaluate(pb, "AAPL", {"rsi": 20.0}, {})
+        assert aapl.action == ScenarioAction.BUY
+        assert aapl.confidence == 90
+
+        msft = engine.evaluate(pb, "MSFT", {"rsi": 80.0}, {})
+        assert msft.action == ScenarioAction.SELL
+
+    def test_complex_multi_condition(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(
+            scenarios=[
+                _scenario(
+                    rsi_below=30.0,
+                    volume_ratio_above=3.0,
+                    price_change_pct_below=-2.0,
+                    confidence=95,
+                ),
+            ]
+        )
+        # All conditions met
+        result = engine.evaluate(
+            pb,
+            "005930",
+            {"rsi": 22.0, "volume_ratio": 4.0, "price_change_pct": -3.0},
+            {},
+        )
+        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.BUY
+        assert result.confidence == 95
+
+        # One condition not met
+        result2 = engine.evaluate(
+            pb,
+            "005930",
+            {"rsi": 22.0, "volume_ratio": 4.0, "price_change_pct": -1.0},
+            {},
+        )
+        assert result2.action == ScenarioAction.HOLD
+
+    def test_scenario_match_returns_rationale(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook(scenarios=[_scenario(rsi_below=30.0)])
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "005930", {"rsi": 25.0}, {})
+        assert result.rationale != ""
+
+    def test_result_stock_code(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
+        pb = _playbook()
+        result = engine.evaluate(pb, "005930", {"rsi": 25.0}, {})
+        assert result.stock_code == "005930"