Merge pull request 'docs: add live-operation issue tracking design and plan (#80)' (#395) from task/80-implementation-audit-closeout into base/ouroboros-workflow-20260302

Reviewed-on: #395

docs/ouroboros/01_requirements_registry.md

@@ -42,3 +42,5 @@ Updated: 2026-03-02
 ## 변경 이력
 
 - 2026-03-02: `v1.0.12` 문서 검증 게이트 강화(#390) 반영에 따라 정책 문서 동기화 체크를 수행했다. (`REQ-OPS-002`)
+
+- 2026-03-04: 86_peak_probability_model_plan.md 초안 추가에 따른 정책 문서 동기화 체크를 수행했다. (REQ-OPS-002)

docs/ouroboros/86_peak_probability_model_plan.md

@@ -0,0 +1,168 @@
+<!--
+Doc-ID: DOC-PLAN-086
+Version: 0.1.0
+Status: draft
+Owner: strategy
+Updated: 2026-03-02
+-->
+
+# 고점 확률 모델 도입 계획 (초안)
+
+작성일: 2026-03-02  
+목적: 기존 계획(v2)의 "모델 보조 신호"를, 실운용 가능한 단순한 형태로 재정의한다.
+
+---
+
+## 1. 한 줄 요약
+
+- 목표는 "지금이 고점(또는 고점 근처)일 확률"을 예측해 익절/축소/오버나잇 리스크 결정을 보조하는 것이다.
+- 1차는 정규장 중심으로 시작하고, NXT/US_PRE 등 확장세션은 이후 분리 대응한다.
+
+---
+
+## 2. 왜 바꾸는가
+
+- 기존 논의는 범위가 넓어 구현/검증 비용이 컸다.
+- 현재 로그 구조에서도 빠르게 시작 가능한 타깃이 필요하다.
+- 실거래 효용 기준에서 "고점 근처 감지"는 청산 품질 개선에 직접 연결된다.
+
+---
+
+## 3. 이번 계획의 핵심 결정
+
+### 3.1 예측 타깃 (2개)
+
+- `p_top_d0`: 현재 시점이 "오늘 정규장 고점(근접 포함)"일 확률
+- `p_top_d1`: 현재 시점이 "내일 정규장 마감까지 포함한 고점(근접 포함)"일 확률
+
+### 3.2 모델 역할
+
+- 단독 매도 트리거가 아니라 보조 신호로 사용한다.
+- Hard stop / ATR trailing / Kill Switch 우선 원칙은 유지한다.
+
+### 3.3 적용 순서
+
+1. KR/US 정규장만 대상으로 MVP 구축
+2. 성능/운영 안정화 후 NXT, US_PRE, US_AFTER 분리 확장
+
+---
+
+## 4. 데이터/라벨 정의 (MVP)
+
+### 4.1 샘플 단위
+
+- 단위: "시점 t의 관측값 1개"
+- 대상: 주문 가능 시점 중 정책 게이트를 통과하는 시점
+
+### 4.2 라벨 정의
+
+- `y_d0 = 1` if `max_high(t ~ 오늘 정규장 마감) <= price_t * (1 + eps_d0)` else `0`
+- `y_d1 = 1` if `max_high(t ~ 내일 정규장 마감) <= price_t * (1 + eps_d1)` else `0`
+
+### 4.3 필수 피처 (초기)
+
+- 가격/수익률: `current_price`, `price_change_pct`
+- 미시지표: `rsi`, `volume_ratio`, `signal`, `score`
+- 포트폴리오: `portfolio_pnl_pct`, `total_cash`(선택)
+- 상태: `market`, `session_id`, `minutes_to_close`, `is_tradeable_now`
+
+### 4.4 데이터 제외 규칙 (초기)
+
+- `session_id in ('', 'UNKNOWN')` 제외
+- `price <= 0` 또는 `quantity <= 0` 제외
+- `rationale LIKE '[startup-sync]%'` 제외
+- 라벨 윈도우 불완전(휴장/데이터 누락) 샘플 제외
+
+---
+
+## 5. 추론/실행 규칙 (초안)
+
+### 5.1 추론 출력
+
+```json
+{
+  "p_top_d0": 0.00,
+  "p_top_d1": 0.00,
+  "model_version": "TBD"
+}
+```
+
+### 5.2 실행 반영 원칙
+
+- `p_top_d0`가 높으면: 당일 익절/트레일링 강화
+- `p_top_d1`가 높으면: 오버나잇 보유 축소/청산 우선
+- 확장세션(NXT/US_PRE)은 초기엔 보수 임계치 또는 실행 제한
+
+---
+
+## 6. 세션 이슈 대응 원칙
+
+### 6.1 거래 가능 세션 기준
+
+- 달력 시간이 아니라 "종목이 실제 거래 가능한 세션" 기준으로 라벨/추론을 구성한다.
+
+### 6.2 정규장 vs 확장세션 분리
+
+- MVP: 정규장 전용 라벨/모델
+- 확장: 세션별 헤드 또는 세션별 모델 분리 검토
+
+### 6.3 고점 정의 분리
+
+- `reg_high`: 정규장 고점 (주 라벨)
+- `ext_high`: 확장세션 포함 고점 (보조 분석)
+
+---
+
+## 7. 단계별 구현 계획
+
+### Phase A: 계약 고정
+
+- 학습용 canonical dataset 스키마 확정
+- 시점 정렬(as-of) 규칙 문서화
+- 라벨 생성 함수/검증 테스트 추가
+
+### Phase B: 오프라인 검증
+
+- Walk-forward + Purge/Embargo 평가
+- `d0`, `d1` 분리 리포트
+- B1(모델 없음) 대비 개선 여부 확인
+
+### Phase C: 런타임 통합
+
+- 추론 결과를 `pred_top_d0/pred_top_d1`로 주입
+- 매도/축소 보조 규칙 연결
+- Shadow 모드로 관측 후 제한적 활성화
+
+### Phase D: 세션 확장
+
+- NXT/US_PRE/US_AFTER 정책 분리
+- 실행 게이트/임계치 세션별 튜닝
+
+---
+
+## 8. 지금 당장 결정할 최소 항목 (TBD)
+
+- [ ] `eps_d0`, `eps_d1` 기본값 (`TBD`)
+- [ ] `p_top_d0`, `p_top_d1` 실행 임계치 (`TBD`)
+- [ ] 정규장/확장세션 대상 시장 범위 (`TBD`)
+- [ ] 최소 학습 샘플 수 기준 (`TBD`)
+- [ ] Shadow 관측 기간 (`TBD`)
+
+---
+
+## 9. 리스크 및 완화
+
+- 라벨 불균형: class weight, threshold 튜닝
+- 시간대 편향(장마감 근처): 시간 피처 추가 + 구간별 성능 보고
+- 데이터 무결성: 제외 규칙 강제 + CI 검증
+- 복잡도 증가: 정규장 MVP를 먼저 잠그고 확장세션은 후속 분리
+
+---
+
+## 10. 후속 문서 연결 (예정)
+
+- requirements registry: 신규 REQ/TASK/TEST 매핑 추가
+- code-level work orders: 구현 작업 분해
+- acceptance/test plan: `p_top_d0/d1` 검증 항목 추가
+- implementation audit: 기존 "모델 보조 신호" 항목 업데이트
+

docs/plans/2026-03-02-dual-track-workflow-execution-plan.md

@@ -0,0 +1,211 @@
+# Dual-Track Workflow Execution Plan (Revised)
+
+> **For Claude:** REQUIRED SUB-SKILL: Use superpowers:executing-plans to implement this plan task-by-task.
+
+**Goal:** Re-seed workflow planning from a clean base branch (not the temporary branch), then execute isolated `86` and `80` tracks with real-operation-confirmed closeout and related Gitea issue closure.
+
+**Architecture:** Start from `feature/v3-session-policy-stream` and create `base/ouroboros-workflow-20260302`. Bring only two workflow plan docs as one squashed seed commit. Branch `task/86...` and `task/80...` from that base with strict file-scope separation. For `80`, update audit only after real-operation confirmation, then close related Gitea issues (children before parent). Final promotion happens by merging the validated stream to `main`.
+
+**Tech Stack:** Git CLI, Gitea (`tea`) issue/PR workflow, Markdown docs (`docs/ouroboros`, `docs/plans`)
+
+---
+
+### Task 1: Freeze temporary branch and identify export scope
+
+**Files:**
+- Modify: none
+- Create: none
+- Test: none
+
+**Step 1: Inspect temporary branch state**
+
+Run: `git status --short --branch`
+Expected: current temporary branch with local changes listed.
+
+**Step 2: Preserve changes using stash (recommended)**
+
+Run: `git stash push -u -m "tmp-before-workflow-reseed-2026-03-02"`
+Expected: stash created with tracked/untracked changes.
+
+**Step 3: Define transferable artifacts**
+
+Run: keep only these for reseed:  
+- `docs/plans/2026-03-02-ouroboros-dual-track-workflow-design.md`  
+- `docs/plans/2026-03-02-dual-track-workflow-execution-plan.md`
+Expected: transfer scope fixed to two files.
+
+**Step 4: Verify clean working tree**
+
+Run: `git status --short --branch`
+Expected: no local changes.
+
+**Step 5: Commit**
+
+```bash
+# no commit in this task (stash-only preservation)
+```
+
+### Task 2: Create clean official base and seed one commit
+
+**Files:**
+- Modify: `docs/plans/2026-03-02-ouroboros-dual-track-workflow-design.md`
+- Modify: `docs/plans/2026-03-02-dual-track-workflow-execution-plan.md`
+- Test: none
+
+**Step 1: Switch to canonical base**
+
+Run: `git checkout feature/v3-session-policy-stream`
+Expected: branch switch successful.
+
+**Step 2: Update local base**
+
+Run: `git pull --ff-only origin feature/v3-session-policy-stream`
+Expected: up-to-date or fast-forward update.
+
+**Step 3: Create staging base branch**
+
+Run: `git checkout -b base/ouroboros-workflow-20260302`
+Expected: new branch created from updated feature base.
+
+**Step 4: Restore only two plan docs from temporary branch commits**
+
+Run (example): `git checkout <temp-branch> -- docs/plans/2026-03-02-ouroboros-dual-track-workflow-design.md docs/plans/2026-03-02-dual-track-workflow-execution-plan.md`
+Expected: only two files restored in working tree.
+
+**Step 5: Create one squashed seed commit**
+
+Run: `git add docs/plans/2026-03-02-ouroboros-dual-track-workflow-design.md docs/plans/2026-03-02-dual-track-workflow-execution-plan.md && git commit -m "docs: seed revised dual-track workflow plan"`
+Expected: single commit with two files only.
+
+**Step 6: Verify seed scope**
+
+Run: `git show --name-only --oneline HEAD`
+Expected: exactly the two plan docs listed.
+
+**Step 7: Push official base**
+
+Run: `git push -u origin base/ouroboros-workflow-20260302`
+Expected: remote tracking set.
+
+### Task 3: Open Track A (`86`) branch and initial PR
+
+**Files:**
+- Modify: `docs/ouroboros/86_peak_probability_model_plan.md`
+- Test: none
+
+**Step 1: Create Track A branch**
+
+Run: `git checkout -b task/86-peak-probability-plan`
+Expected: branch created from official base.
+
+**Step 2: Stage only `86` document**
+
+Run: `git add docs/ouroboros/86_peak_probability_model_plan.md`
+Expected: only `86` doc staged.
+
+**Step 3: Commit initial PR seed**
+
+Run: `git commit -m "docs: seed peak probability model plan (#86)"`
+Expected: one-document commit.
+
+**Step 4: Push branch**
+
+Run: `git push -u origin task/86-peak-probability-plan`
+Expected: remote branch created.
+
+**Step 5: Open PR-A**
+
+Run: `tea pr create --base base/ouroboros-workflow-20260302 --head task/86-peak-probability-plan --title "docs: seed peak probability model plan (#86)" --description "Initial planning PR for iterative concretization."`
+Expected: PR URL returned.
+
+### Task 4: Open Track B (`80`) branch for operation-confirmed closeout
+
+**Files:**
+- Modify: `docs/ouroboros/80_implementation_audit.md`
+- Test: operation observation evidence (outside unit-test scope)
+
+**Step 1: Return to staging base**
+
+Run: `git checkout base/ouroboros-workflow-20260302`
+Expected: branch switch successful.
+
+**Step 2: Create Track B branch**
+
+Run: `git checkout -b task/80-implementation-audit-closeout`
+Expected: branch created.
+
+**Step 3: Apply closeout edits only after real-operation confirmation**
+
+Run: edit `docs/ouroboros/80_implementation_audit.md`
+Expected: status/evidence sections updated with observed behavior, confirmation timestamp, and operational proof summary.
+
+**Step 4: Commit closeout update**
+
+Run: `git add docs/ouroboros/80_implementation_audit.md && git commit -m "docs: close out implementation audit items after operation confirmation (#80)"`
+Expected: single-scope commit.
+
+**Step 5: Push and open PR-B**
+
+Run: `git push -u origin task/80-implementation-audit-closeout`
+Expected: remote branch created.
+
+Run: `tea pr create --base base/ouroboros-workflow-20260302 --head task/80-implementation-audit-closeout --title "docs: close out implementation audit items (#80)" --description "Closeout based on real-operation confirmation."`
+Expected: PR URL returned.
+
+### Task 5: Close related Gitea issues after `80` confirmation
+
+**Files:**
+- Modify: `docs/ouroboros/80_implementation_audit.md` (reference linkage only)
+- Test: issue parent-child completeness check
+
+**Step 1: Build related issue set from updated `80` audit**
+
+Run: parse issue references from `80` updated sections.
+Expected: target open issue list prepared.
+
+**Step 2: Close child issues first**
+
+Run: `tea issues close <child-issue-number>` for each confirmed child.
+Expected: all qualifying child issues closed.
+
+**Step 3: Close parent issues only when all children are closed**
+
+Run: `tea issues close <parent-issue-number>`
+Expected: parent closes only after dependency check passes.
+
+**Step 4: Record closure summary in PR comment**
+
+Run: add PR comment with closed issue IDs and parent-child resolution note.
+Expected: auditable trace for closeout.
+
+### Task 6: Validate branch hygiene and merge path
+
+**Files:**
+- Modify: none
+- Test: git diff/log checks
+
+**Step 1: Verify PR-A scope**
+
+Run: `git diff --name-only base/ouroboros-workflow-20260302...task/86-peak-probability-plan`
+Expected: only `docs/ouroboros/86_peak_probability_model_plan.md` (and intentional related plan files if any).
+
+**Step 2: Verify PR-B scope**
+
+Run: `git diff --name-only base/ouroboros-workflow-20260302...task/80-implementation-audit-closeout`
+Expected: only `docs/ouroboros/80_implementation_audit.md` (and intentional related plan files if any).
+
+**Step 3: Merge both PRs into staging base**
+
+Run: GitHub merge flow for PR-A and PR-B
+Expected: staging base includes both tracks without cross-file contamination.
+
+**Step 4: Promote validated stream to `main`**
+
+Run: open PR from `feature/v3-session-policy-stream` (or its validated promotion branch) to `main`
+Expected: merge-based history preservation with no cherry-pick/rebase surgery.
+
+**Step 5: Commit**
+
+```bash
+# no additional commit required in this task
+```

docs/plans/2026-03-02-live-operation-issue-tracking-design.md

@@ -0,0 +1,100 @@
+# Live Operation Issue Tracking Design
+
+**Date:** 2026-03-02  
+**Scope:** Real-operation confirmation tracking for all open Gitea issues, tied to `task/80-implementation-audit-closeout`.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Goal
+
+Define an issue-by-issue tracking method for real-operation confirmation so that:
+
+- every open issue is tracked with explicit lifecycle states,
+- parent-child close order is enforced,
+- and final closeout is reflected in `80` audit work without loss.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Target Set
+
+- Coverage target: all current open Gitea issues (`318~381`, and future open issues during this closeout window).
+- Tracking starts from open set snapshot and stays synced until closeout completion.
+
+---
+
+## 3. Tracking Architecture
+
+- Primary log: direct comments on each issue ticket.
+- Aggregate log: single summary comment on the `80` PR (`task/80-implementation-audit-closeout`).
+- No separate tracking doc as source of truth during execution.
+
+---
+
+## 4. State Model and Criteria
+
+State machine:
+
+- `NOT_STARTED`
+- `OBSERVING`
+- `CONFIRMED`
+- `CLOSED`
+
+Rules:
+
+- `CONFIRMED` requires one real-operation observation evidence item.
+- `CLOSED` requires close conditions satisfied and ticket close action executed.
+- Parent issue cannot become `CLOSED` until all child issues are `CLOSED`.
+
+---
+
+## 5. Issue Comment Template
+
+Each issue update comment uses:
+
+- `Status: <STATE>`
+- `Observed At: <KST>, <UTC>`
+- `Environment: live`
+- `Evidence: <log/query/order-execution identifier>`
+- `Next: <single next action>`
+
+This template is reused for every transition for consistent auditability.
+
+---
+
+## 6. Parent-Child Policy
+
+- Parent issue comment must list child issue IDs.
+- Child issues transition independently.
+- Parent close gate:
+  - if any child is not `CLOSED`, parent remains at most `CONFIRMED`;
+  - when all children are `CLOSED`, parent can transition to `CLOSED` and be closed.
+
+---
+
+## 7. Operational Loop
+
+1. Initialize all open issues with `NOT_STARTED` comment.
+2. Move active issues to `OBSERVING` when live confirmation begins.
+3. Move to `CONFIRMED` after one real-operation evidence capture.
+4. Close child issues first, then close parent issue(s).
+5. Update the single `80` PR summary comment whenever issue state changes.
+6. Reflect final confirmed/closed outcomes in `docs/ouroboros/80_implementation_audit.md`.
+
+---
+
+## 8. Evidence and Time Rules
+
+- Evidence must be replayable/referenceable by identifier (not vague narrative only).
+- Every update includes both KST and UTC timestamps.
+- Use absolute dates (example: `2026-03-02`) to avoid ambiguity in session handoff.
+
+---
+
+## 9. Completion Conditions
+
+Tracking design is complete when:
+
+- all open issues are represented in issue comments with valid lifecycle state,
+- parent-child closure constraints are respected,
+- `80` PR summary comment reflects current global status,
+- and final `80` audit document update is ready for closeout commit.

docs/plans/2026-03-02-live-operation-issue-tracking-implementation-plan.md

@@ -0,0 +1,203 @@
+# Live Operation Issue Tracking Implementation Plan
+
+> **For Claude:** REQUIRED SUB-SKILL: Use superpowers:executing-plans to implement this plan task-by-task.
+
+**Goal:** Track real-operation confirmation for all open Gitea issues with per-issue comments and a synchronized summary on the `80` PR, then close issues in dependency-safe order.
+
+**Architecture:** Use issue tickets as the primary state log with a strict four-state lifecycle. Maintain one aggregate status comment on `task/80-implementation-audit-closeout` PR. Enforce child-first closure and parent close gating.
+
+**Tech Stack:** Git CLI, Gitea CLI (`tea`), Markdown (`docs/ouroboros/80_implementation_audit.md`)
+
+---
+
+### Task 1: Snapshot open issues and classify parent-child graph
+
+**Files:**
+- Create: none
+- Modify: none
+- Test: `tea issues ls` output inspection
+
+**Step 1: Capture open issue list**
+
+Run: `tea issues ls --state open --limit 200`
+Expected: list of all open issues (including `318~381`).
+
+**Step 2: Fetch details for each issue**
+
+Run: `for n in $(tea issues ls --state open --limit 200 --output json | jq -r '.[].number'); do tea issue view "$n"; done`
+Expected: issue bodies/comments available for relation parsing.
+
+**Step 3: Extract parent-child references**
+
+Run: parse issue text for relation keywords (`parent`, `child`, `depends on`, `blocks`).
+Expected: dependency map ready.
+
+**Step 4: Validate unresolved dependency edges**
+
+Run: verify each parent references only existing issue numbers.
+Expected: no dangling child references.
+
+**Step 5: Commit**
+
+```bash
+# no commit (discovery task)
+```
+
+### Task 2: Initialize per-issue tracking comments (`NOT_STARTED`)
+
+**Files:**
+- Create: none
+- Modify: none
+- Test: issue comment presence check
+
+**Step 1: Prepare standard template text**
+
+```text
+Status: NOT_STARTED
+Observed At: <KST>, <UTC>
+Environment: live
+Evidence: N/A
+Next: Begin live observation for this issue.
+```
+
+**Step 2: Post initialization comment to each open issue**
+
+Run: `tea issues comment <issue-number> --message "<template>"`
+Expected: each open issue has one initialization comment.
+
+**Step 3: Verify comment coverage**
+
+Run: sample-check each issue (`tea issue view <issue-number>`) for latest status comment.
+Expected: 100% coverage across open issues.
+
+**Step 4: Commit**
+
+```bash
+# no commit (ticket operations)
+```
+
+### Task 3: Create and maintain `80` PR aggregate status comment
+
+**Files:**
+- Modify: `docs/ouroboros/80_implementation_audit.md` (final sync only, not this task)
+- Test: PR comment contains full issue table
+
+**Step 1: Identify PR number for `task/80-implementation-audit-closeout`**
+
+Run: `tea pr ls --state open`
+Expected: PR number for `task/80...` identified.
+
+**Step 2: Post initial summary comment**
+
+Run: `tea pr comment <pr-number> --message "<issue-state-summary-table>"`
+Expected: one aggregate comment listing `issue | state | last observed at | parent/child`.
+
+**Step 3: Define update protocol**
+
+Run: update same summary comment on every issue state change.
+Expected: summary remains single-source aggregate view.
+
+**Step 4: Commit**
+
+```bash
+# no commit (ticket/PR operations)
+```
+
+### Task 4: Execute live observation loop and mark `OBSERVING` -> `CONFIRMED`
+
+**Files:**
+- Create: none
+- Modify: none
+- Test: evidence-backed state transitions present in issue comments
+
+**Step 1: Mark active issue as `OBSERVING`**
+
+Run: `tea issues comment <issue-number> --message "Status: OBSERVING ..."`
+Expected: issue history shows observation started.
+
+**Step 2: Capture one real-operation evidence item**
+
+Run: collect log/query/order identifier tied to issue behavior.
+Expected: one concrete evidence reference captured.
+
+**Step 3: Mark issue `CONFIRMED`**
+
+Run: `tea issues comment <issue-number> --message "Status: CONFIRMED ... Evidence: <id> ..."`
+Expected: issue has explicit confirmed state.
+
+**Step 4: Sync PR aggregate summary**
+
+Run: update `80` PR summary comment row for that issue.
+Expected: PR summary and issue status aligned.
+
+**Step 5: Commit**
+
+```bash
+# no commit (ticket operations)
+```
+
+### Task 5: Close issues with child-first dependency enforcement
+
+**Files:**
+- Create: none
+- Modify: none
+- Test: parent close attempted only after all children closed
+
+**Step 1: Close confirmed child issues first**
+
+Run: `tea issues close <child-issue-number>`
+Expected: child issue state becomes closed.
+
+**Step 2: Verify all children for each parent**
+
+Run: evaluate dependency map for remaining non-closed children.
+Expected: parent close gate decision available.
+
+**Step 3: Close eligible parent issues**
+
+Run: `tea issues close <parent-issue-number>`
+Expected: parent is closed only when all children are closed.
+
+**Step 4: Post closure comment and sync PR summary**
+
+Run: comment `Status: CLOSED` on closed issue and update PR summary row.
+Expected: closure trace exists in both issue and PR aggregate.
+
+**Step 5: Commit**
+
+```bash
+# no commit (ticket operations)
+```
+
+### Task 6: Reflect final tracked outcomes in `80` audit and commit
+
+**Files:**
+- Modify: `docs/ouroboros/80_implementation_audit.md`
+- Test: markdown consistency + traceability check
+
+**Step 1: Update `80` with final live-confirmed statuses**
+
+Run: edit status lines and evidence summary sections.
+Expected: document reflects final issue states and confirmation notes.
+
+**Step 2: Add issue closure summary block**
+
+Run: include closed child/parent sequence summary.
+Expected: audit reader can verify closure logic quickly.
+
+**Step 3: Validate references**
+
+Run: ensure issue numbers in doc match actual closed/open states.
+Expected: no mismatch between doc and Gitea.
+
+**Step 4: Commit closeout doc update**
+
+```bash
+git add docs/ouroboros/80_implementation_audit.md
+git commit -m "docs: finalize 80 audit with live-operation issue confirmations"
+```
+
+**Step 5: Push branch**
+
+Run: `git push`
+Expected: closeout commit available on `task/80-implementation-audit-closeout`.

docs/plans/2026-03-02-ouroboros-dual-track-workflow-design.md

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+# Ouroboros Dual-Track Workflow Design (Revised)
+
+**Date:** 2026-03-02  
+**Scope:** `docs/ouroboros/86_peak_probability_model_plan.md` and `docs/ouroboros/80_implementation_audit.md`
+
+---
+
+## 1. Goal
+
+Prevent work loss and history contamination while running two parallel tracks, while correcting an invalid starting condition (design commits created on a disposable temporary branch):
+
+- Track A: open and iterate the `86` plan as a dedicated PR.
+- Track B: finalize `80` only after real-operation behavior is confirmed, then reflect completion and close related Gitea open issues.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Constraints and Current Context
+
+- Current temporary branch is disposable and must not remain the authoritative base.
+- Canonical base line for current work is `feature/v3-session-policy-stream`.
+- Final integration strategy is to merge the full `feature/v3-session-policy-stream` line into `main` after operation-level validation is complete.
+
+---
+
+## 3. Approaches Considered
+
+1. Keep using temporary branch and continue from existing design commits.
+2. Create a clean base from `feature/v3-session-policy-stream` and move only plan artifacts as one commit (recommended).
+3. Split into two fresh bases (`86` and `80` separately) immediately.
+
+Recommendation rationale:
+
+- Approach 2 removes temporary-branch contamination risk.
+- It preserves clean lineage with a single "official starting point" commit.
+- It keeps downstream split for `86` and `80` straightforward.
+
+---
+
+## 4. Approved Branch and PR Topology
+
+- Long-lived source baseline: `feature/v3-session-policy-stream`
+- New official base: `base/ouroboros-workflow-20260302` (from `feature/v3-session-policy-stream`)
+- Official base contains only two workflow plan docs squashed into one commit.
+- Track A branch: `task/86-peak-probability-plan` (from official base)
+- Track B branch: `task/80-implementation-audit-closeout` (from official base)
+
+PR direction:
+
+- PR-A (`86`): `task/86-peak-probability-plan -> base/ouroboros-workflow-20260302`
+- PR-B (`80`): `task/80-implementation-audit-closeout -> base/ouroboros-workflow-20260302`
+- Final integration: `feature/v3-session-policy-stream` line merged into `main`
+
+---
+
+## 5. Completion Criteria per Track
+
+### Track A (`86`)
+
+- Open initial PR early with the planning document.
+- Continue iterative concretization in follow-up commits on the same branch.
+
+### Track B (`80`)
+
+- Do not close based on test-command artifacts alone.
+- Close only when modified behavior is confirmed in real operation.
+- Update `80_implementation_audit.md` with:
+  - observed behavior changes,
+  - confirmation timing,
+  - operation-side evidence summary.
+- After `80` real-operation confirmation and doc update, close related Gitea open issues immediately (same phase).
+- Parent issues close only when all child issues are confirmed closed.
+
+---
+
+## 6. Loss-Prevention Rules
+
+- Preserve temporary-branch unmerged changes first (stash or archival commit).
+- Exclude `workflow/session-handover.md` and `docs/ouroboros/86_peak_probability_model_plan.md` from official base-seeding commit.
+- Enforce file-scope separation:
+  - PR-A should avoid `80` edits.
+  - PR-B should avoid `86` edits.
+- Keep commit messages scoped to one track per commit.
+
+---
+
+## 7. Merge Strategy Decision
+
+- For this workflow, prefer merge-based lineage preservation.
+- Because the final promotion unit is the full `feature/v3-session-policy-stream` stream, avoid unnecessary cherry-pick/rebase-surgery unless a contamination incident occurs.
+
+---
+
+## 8. Immediate Next Actions
+
+1. Seed `base/ouroboros-workflow-20260302` from `feature/v3-session-policy-stream` with one squashed workflow-doc commit.
+2. Verify seed commit file scope contains only two plan docs.
+3. Create and open PR-A for `86`.
+4. Complete real-operation confirmation for `80`, update audit doc, then close related Gitea issues (children first, then parent).
+5. Merge validated `feature/v3-session-policy-stream` line into `main`.