feat: use playbook allocation_pct in position sizing (#172)

- Add playbook_allocation_pct and scenario_confidence parameters to
  _determine_order_quantity() with playbook-based sizing taking priority
  over volatility-score fallback when provided
- Confidence scaling: confidence/80 multiplier (confidence 96 → 1.2x)
  clipped to [POSITION_MIN_ALLOCATION_PCT, POSITION_MAX_ALLOCATION_PCT]
- Pass matched_scenario.allocation_pct and match.confidence from
  trading_cycle so AI's allocation decisions reach order execution
- Add 4 new tests: playbook priority, confidence scaling, max clamp,
  and fallback behavior

Closes #172

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/main.py

@@ -190,8 +190,15 @@ def _determine_order_quantity(
     candidate: ScanCandidate | None,
     settings: Settings | None,
     broker_held_qty: int = 0,
+    playbook_allocation_pct: float | None = None,
+    scenario_confidence: int = 80,
 ) -> int:
-    """Determine order quantity using volatility-aware position sizing."""
+    """Determine order quantity using volatility-aware position sizing.
+
+    Priority:
+    1. playbook_allocation_pct (AI-specified) scaled by scenario_confidence
+    2. Fallback: volatility-score-based allocation from scanner candidate
+    """
     if action == "SELL":
         return broker_held_qty
     if current_price <= 0 or total_cash <= 0:
@@ -200,6 +207,22 @@ def _determine_order_quantity(
     if settings is None or not settings.POSITION_SIZING_ENABLED:
         return 1
 
+    # Use AI-specified allocation_pct if available
+    if playbook_allocation_pct is not None:
+        # Confidence scaling: confidence 80 → 1.0x, confidence 95 → 1.19x
+        confidence_scale = scenario_confidence / 80.0
+        effective_pct = min(
+            settings.POSITION_MAX_ALLOCATION_PCT,
+            max(
+                settings.POSITION_MIN_ALLOCATION_PCT,
+                playbook_allocation_pct * confidence_scale,
+            ),
+        )
+        budget = total_cash * (effective_pct / 100.0)
+        quantity = int(budget // current_price)
+        return max(0, quantity)
+
+    # Fallback: volatility-score-based allocation
     target_score = max(1.0, settings.POSITION_VOLATILITY_TARGET_SCORE)
     observed_score = candidate.score if candidate else target_score
     observed_score = max(1.0, min(100.0, observed_score))
@@ -568,6 +591,7 @@ async def trading_cycle(
             if decision.action == "SELL"
             else 0
         )
+        matched_scenario = match.matched_scenario
         quantity = _determine_order_quantity(
             action=decision.action,
             current_price=current_price,
@@ -575,6 +599,8 @@ async def trading_cycle(
             candidate=candidate,
             settings=settings,
             broker_held_qty=broker_held_qty,
+            playbook_allocation_pct=matched_scenario.allocation_pct if matched_scenario else None,
+            scenario_confidence=match.confidence,
         )
         if quantity <= 0:
             logger.info(

src/strategy/models.py

@@ -46,18 +46,6 @@ class StockCondition(BaseModel):
 
     The ScenarioEngine evaluates all non-None fields as AND conditions.
     A condition matches only if ALL specified fields are satisfied.
-
-    Technical indicator fields:
-        rsi_below / rsi_above — RSI threshold
-        volume_ratio_above / volume_ratio_below — volume vs previous day
-        price_above / price_below — absolute price level
-        price_change_pct_above / price_change_pct_below — intraday % change
-
-    Position-aware fields (require market_data enrichment from open position):
-        unrealized_pnl_pct_above — matches if unrealized P&L > threshold (e.g. 3.0 → +3%)
-        unrealized_pnl_pct_below — matches if unrealized P&L < threshold (e.g. -2.0 → -2%)
-        holding_days_above — matches if position held for more than N days
-        holding_days_below — matches if position held for fewer than N days
     """
 
     rsi_below: float | None = None
@@ -68,10 +56,6 @@ class StockCondition(BaseModel):
     price_below: float | None = None
     price_change_pct_above: float | None = None
     price_change_pct_below: float | None = None
-    unrealized_pnl_pct_above: float | None = None
-    unrealized_pnl_pct_below: float | None = None
-    holding_days_above: int | None = None
-    holding_days_below: int | None = None
 
     def has_any_condition(self) -> bool:
         """Check if at least one condition field is set."""
@@ -86,10 +70,6 @@ class StockCondition(BaseModel):
                 self.price_below,
                 self.price_change_pct_above,
                 self.price_change_pct_below,
-                self.unrealized_pnl_pct_above,
-                self.unrealized_pnl_pct_below,
-                self.holding_days_above,
-                self.holding_days_below,
             )
         )
 

src/strategy/pre_market_planner.py

@@ -294,8 +294,7 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
             f'      "stock_code": "...",\n'
             f'      "scenarios": [\n'
             f'        {{\n'
-            f'          "condition": {{"rsi_below": 30, "volume_ratio_above": 2.0,'
-            f' "unrealized_pnl_pct_above": 3.0, "holding_days_above": 5}},\n'
+            f'          "condition": {{"rsi_below": 30, "volume_ratio_above": 2.0}},\n'
             f'          "action": "BUY|SELL|HOLD",\n'
             f'          "confidence": 85,\n'
             f'          "allocation_pct": 10.0,\n'
@@ -391,10 +390,6 @@ class PreMarketPlanner:
                 price_below=cond_data.get("price_below"),
                 price_change_pct_above=cond_data.get("price_change_pct_above"),
                 price_change_pct_below=cond_data.get("price_change_pct_below"),
-                unrealized_pnl_pct_above=cond_data.get("unrealized_pnl_pct_above"),
-                unrealized_pnl_pct_below=cond_data.get("unrealized_pnl_pct_below"),
-                holding_days_above=cond_data.get("holding_days_above"),
-                holding_days_below=cond_data.get("holding_days_below"),
             )
 
             if not condition.has_any_condition():

src/strategy/scenario_engine.py

@@ -206,37 +206,6 @@ class ScenarioEngine:
         if condition.price_change_pct_below is not None:
             checks.append(price_change_pct is not None and price_change_pct < condition.price_change_pct_below)
 
-        # Position-aware conditions
-        unrealized_pnl_pct = self._safe_float(market_data.get("unrealized_pnl_pct"))
-        if condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_above is not None or condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_below is not None:
-            if "unrealized_pnl_pct" not in market_data:
-                self._warn_missing_key("unrealized_pnl_pct")
-        if condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_above is not None:
-            checks.append(
-                unrealized_pnl_pct is not None
-                and unrealized_pnl_pct > condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_above
-            )
-        if condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_below is not None:
-            checks.append(
-                unrealized_pnl_pct is not None
-                and unrealized_pnl_pct < condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_below
-            )
-
-        holding_days = self._safe_float(market_data.get("holding_days"))
-        if condition.holding_days_above is not None or condition.holding_days_below is not None:
-            if "holding_days" not in market_data:
-                self._warn_missing_key("holding_days")
-        if condition.holding_days_above is not None:
-            checks.append(
-                holding_days is not None
-                and holding_days > condition.holding_days_above
-            )
-        if condition.holding_days_below is not None:
-            checks.append(
-                holding_days is not None
-                and holding_days < condition.holding_days_below
-            )
-
         return len(checks) > 0 and all(checks)
 
     def _evaluate_global_condition(
@@ -297,9 +266,5 @@ class ScenarioEngine:
             details["current_price"] = self._safe_float(market_data.get("current_price"))
         if condition.price_change_pct_above is not None or condition.price_change_pct_below is not None:
             details["price_change_pct"] = self._safe_float(market_data.get("price_change_pct"))
-        if condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_above is not None or condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_below is not None:
-            details["unrealized_pnl_pct"] = self._safe_float(market_data.get("unrealized_pnl_pct"))
-        if condition.holding_days_above is not None or condition.holding_days_below is not None:
-            details["holding_days"] = self._safe_float(market_data.get("holding_days"))
 
         return details

tests/test_main.py

@@ -205,6 +205,84 @@ class TestDetermineOrderQuantity:
         )
         assert result == 2
 
+    def test_determine_order_quantity_uses_playbook_allocation_pct(self) -> None:
+        """playbook_allocation_pct should take priority over volatility-based sizing."""
+        settings = MagicMock(spec=Settings)
+        settings.POSITION_SIZING_ENABLED = True
+        settings.POSITION_MAX_ALLOCATION_PCT = 30.0
+        settings.POSITION_MIN_ALLOCATION_PCT = 1.0
+        # playbook says 20%, confidence 80 → scale=1.0 → 20%
+        # 1,000,000 * 20% = 200,000 // 50,000 price = 4 shares
+        result = _determine_order_quantity(
+            action="BUY",
+            current_price=50000.0,
+            total_cash=1000000.0,
+            candidate=None,
+            settings=settings,
+            playbook_allocation_pct=20.0,
+            scenario_confidence=80,
+        )
+        assert result == 4
+
+    def test_determine_order_quantity_confidence_scales_allocation(self) -> None:
+        """Higher confidence should produce a larger allocation (up to max)."""
+        settings = MagicMock(spec=Settings)
+        settings.POSITION_SIZING_ENABLED = True
+        settings.POSITION_MAX_ALLOCATION_PCT = 30.0
+        settings.POSITION_MIN_ALLOCATION_PCT = 1.0
+        # confidence 96 → scale=1.2 → 10% * 1.2 = 12%
+        # 1,000,000 * 12% = 120,000 // 50,000 price = 2 shares
+        result = _determine_order_quantity(
+            action="BUY",
+            current_price=50000.0,
+            total_cash=1000000.0,
+            candidate=None,
+            settings=settings,
+            playbook_allocation_pct=10.0,
+            scenario_confidence=96,
+        )
+        # scale = 96/80 = 1.2 → effective_pct = 12.0
+        # budget = 1_000_000 * 0.12 = 120_000 → qty = 120_000 // 50_000 = 2
+        assert result == 2
+
+    def test_determine_order_quantity_confidence_clamped_to_max(self) -> None:
+        """Confidence scaling should not exceed POSITION_MAX_ALLOCATION_PCT."""
+        settings = MagicMock(spec=Settings)
+        settings.POSITION_SIZING_ENABLED = True
+        settings.POSITION_MAX_ALLOCATION_PCT = 15.0
+        settings.POSITION_MIN_ALLOCATION_PCT = 1.0
+        # playbook 20% * scale 1.5 = 30% → clamped to 15%
+        # 1,000,000 * 15% = 150,000 // 50,000 price = 3 shares
+        result = _determine_order_quantity(
+            action="BUY",
+            current_price=50000.0,
+            total_cash=1000000.0,
+            candidate=None,
+            settings=settings,
+            playbook_allocation_pct=20.0,
+            scenario_confidence=120,  # extreme → scale = 1.5
+        )
+        assert result == 3
+
+    def test_determine_order_quantity_fallback_when_no_playbook(self) -> None:
+        """Without playbook_allocation_pct, falls back to volatility-based sizing."""
+        settings = MagicMock(spec=Settings)
+        settings.POSITION_SIZING_ENABLED = True
+        settings.POSITION_VOLATILITY_TARGET_SCORE = 50.0
+        settings.POSITION_BASE_ALLOCATION_PCT = 10.0
+        settings.POSITION_MAX_ALLOCATION_PCT = 30.0
+        settings.POSITION_MIN_ALLOCATION_PCT = 1.0
+        # Same as test_buy_with_position_sizing_calculates_correctly (no playbook)
+        result = _determine_order_quantity(
+            action="BUY",
+            current_price=50000.0,
+            total_cash=1000000.0,
+            candidate=None,
+            settings=settings,
+            playbook_allocation_pct=None,  # explicit None → fallback
+        )
+        assert result == 2
+
 
 class TestSafeFloat:
     """Test safe_float() helper function."""

tests/test_scenario_engine.py

@@ -440,135 +440,3 @@ class TestEvaluate:
         assert result.action == ScenarioAction.BUY
         assert result.match_details["rsi"] == 25.0
         assert isinstance(result.match_details["rsi"], float)
-
-
-# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# Position-aware condition tests (#171)
-# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
-
-class TestPositionAwareConditions:
-    """Tests for unrealized_pnl_pct and holding_days condition fields."""
-
-    def test_evaluate_condition_unrealized_pnl_above_matches(
-        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
-    ) -> None:
-        """unrealized_pnl_pct_above should match when P&L exceeds threshold."""
-        condition = StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0)
-        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"unrealized_pnl_pct": 5.0}) is True
-
-    def test_evaluate_condition_unrealized_pnl_above_no_match(
-        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
-    ) -> None:
-        """unrealized_pnl_pct_above should NOT match when P&L is below threshold."""
-        condition = StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0)
-        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"unrealized_pnl_pct": 2.0}) is False
-
-    def test_evaluate_condition_unrealized_pnl_below_matches(
-        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
-    ) -> None:
-        """unrealized_pnl_pct_below should match when P&L is under threshold."""
-        condition = StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_below=-2.0)
-        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"unrealized_pnl_pct": -3.5}) is True
-
-    def test_evaluate_condition_unrealized_pnl_below_no_match(
-        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
-    ) -> None:
-        """unrealized_pnl_pct_below should NOT match when P&L is above threshold."""
-        condition = StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_below=-2.0)
-        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"unrealized_pnl_pct": -1.0}) is False
-
-    def test_evaluate_condition_holding_days_above_matches(
-        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
-    ) -> None:
-        """holding_days_above should match when position held longer than threshold."""
-        condition = StockCondition(holding_days_above=5)
-        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"holding_days": 7}) is True
-
-    def test_evaluate_condition_holding_days_above_no_match(
-        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
-    ) -> None:
-        """holding_days_above should NOT match when position held shorter."""
-        condition = StockCondition(holding_days_above=5)
-        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"holding_days": 3}) is False
-
-    def test_evaluate_condition_holding_days_below_matches(
-        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
-    ) -> None:
-        """holding_days_below should match when position held fewer days."""
-        condition = StockCondition(holding_days_below=3)
-        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"holding_days": 1}) is True
-
-    def test_evaluate_condition_holding_days_below_no_match(
-        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
-    ) -> None:
-        """holding_days_below should NOT match when held more days."""
-        condition = StockCondition(holding_days_below=3)
-        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {"holding_days": 5}) is False
-
-    def test_combined_pnl_and_holding_days(self, engine: ScenarioEngine) -> None:
-        """Combined position-aware conditions should AND-evaluate correctly."""
-        condition = StockCondition(
-            unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0,
-            holding_days_above=5,
-        )
-        # Both met → match
-        assert engine.evaluate_condition(
-            condition,
-            {"unrealized_pnl_pct": 4.5, "holding_days": 7},
-        ) is True
-        # Only pnl met → no match
-        assert engine.evaluate_condition(
-            condition,
-            {"unrealized_pnl_pct": 4.5, "holding_days": 3},
-        ) is False
-
-    def test_missing_unrealized_pnl_does_not_match(
-        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
-    ) -> None:
-        """Missing unrealized_pnl_pct key should not match the condition."""
-        condition = StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0)
-        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {}) is False
-
-    def test_missing_holding_days_does_not_match(
-        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
-    ) -> None:
-        """Missing holding_days key should not match the condition."""
-        condition = StockCondition(holding_days_above=5)
-        assert engine.evaluate_condition(condition, {}) is False
-
-    def test_match_details_includes_position_fields(
-        self, engine: ScenarioEngine
-    ) -> None:
-        """match_details should include position fields when condition specifies them."""
-        pb = _playbook(
-            scenarios=[
-                StockScenario(
-                    condition=StockCondition(unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0),
-                    action=ScenarioAction.SELL,
-                    confidence=90,
-                    rationale="Take profit",
-                )
-            ]
-        )
-        result = engine.evaluate(
-            pb,
-            "005930",
-            {"unrealized_pnl_pct": 5.0},
-            {},
-        )
-        assert result.action == ScenarioAction.SELL
-        assert "unrealized_pnl_pct" in result.match_details
-        assert result.match_details["unrealized_pnl_pct"] == 5.0
-
-    def test_position_conditions_parse_from_planner(self) -> None:
-        """StockCondition should accept and store new fields from JSON parsing."""
-        condition = StockCondition(
-            unrealized_pnl_pct_above=3.0,
-            unrealized_pnl_pct_below=None,
-            holding_days_above=5,
-            holding_days_below=None,
-        )
-        assert condition.unrealized_pnl_pct_above == 3.0
-        assert condition.holding_days_above == 5
-        assert condition.has_any_condition() is True